Best bets for Monday Night Football Rams @ 49ers

[Wagerallsports]

Best bets for Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers​

ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Los Angeles Rams to wrap up Week 10 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).

This week, ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Stats & Information's Seth Walder offer up their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.

---

Moody: Deebo Samuel is in the midst of a great season, averaging 9.9 targets, 6.1 receptions and 110.2 receiving yards per game. Over the past two weeks, Samuel has been dealing with a calf injury. However, the good news is that he avoided any setbacks in Week 9. Samuel can still prosper, even with the increased involvement of WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle returning to the fold. It's also worth mentioning that Rams CB Jalen Ramsey isn't shadowing receivers this season.

On Saturday, Kittle was removed from the 49ers' final injury report. Against the Cardinals last week, he caught 6 of 8 targets for 101 yards. Kittle has caught 39 passes for 646 yards in his seven career games against the Rams.

This season, Matthew Stafford has averaged 307.9 passing yards, surpassing 290 passing yards six times. Stafford has a passer rating of 96.8 with 1,171 yards, eight touchdowns and an interception in four career games against the 49ers.

As a replacement for Robert Woods, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, Van Jefferson is very capable. Jefferson has averaged 5.2 targets, three receptions and 48.1 receiving yards per game this season -- with three games of 80-plus receiving yards. Since Week 5, Woods was averaging 9.0 targets per game, and while Jefferson may get some of those looks, it also wouldn't surprise me if new Rams arrival Odell Beckham Jr. was given most, if not all of those targets in his first game with the Rams.

Picks: Samuel over 70.5 receiving yards (-115), Kittle over 57.5 receiving yards (-110), Stafford over 283.5 passing yards (-115), Jefferson over 49.5 total receiving yards (-115)

Bearman: I liked this pick even before the Beckham signing, and I still like it after the Woods news. This line is an overreaction to last week's prime-time home loss to the AFC-leading Titans. Not to take anything away from Tennessee, but they were gifted 14 points on back-to-back Stafford interceptions, and the Rams outgained them 347-194. The game was a lot closer than the final score made it look.

Los Angeles didn't go from Super Bowl contenders to only 3-4 points better than the 49ers in one week. They are arguably the most complete team in the league, ranked second in total offense and ranked fifth in scoring offense, and with a defense that is in the top 10 in most statistical categories. This is a good bounce-back spot for Sean McVay's squad. The Rams are 15-6 ATS after a loss under McVay (11-3 ATS since 2019).

The 49ers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS at home this season and are the same team that got taken to the shed by Colt McCoy last week and by Carson Wentz just a few weeks prior. Their three wins this season are against the winless Lions and a pair of three-win teams (Eagles, Bears), all on the road. This Monday night contest is going to get attention for all the Beckham news, but when you break it down, the Rams are simply the far superior team here, and this is a short price for a large difference in both talent and coaching.

Pick: Rams -3.5


Walder: In order to justify the 48.5 receiving yard line for Aiyuk, we have to buy that something substantially changed over the last two weeks when Aiyuk's production finally popped. He's gone over this line only once this season -- and it was last week. I'm not willing to rely so heavily on recency bias and throw out Aiyuk's first seven games, where he totaled just 16 overall targets. If we consider the total body of Aiyuk's work this season, this line is too high.

Pick: Aiyuk under 48.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: The Rams already had the third-best offense before adding Beckham. They also currently have the fourth-best defense and have added Von Miller (who is expected to debut this week) to the mix. The 49ers have the worst turnover margin in the NFL, and Jimmy Garoppolo has a sad 18% completion percentage inside the 10-yard line. Add to that the fact that McVay is 16-6 after a loss, and the pick is obvious. Also, the loss of Woods will elevate Jefferson more than any other player on the Rams' offense.

Pick: Rams -3.5, Jefferson over 49.5 total receiving yards (-115)