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Best bets for Monday Night Football: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Cleveland Browns to wrap up Week 17 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).
This week, ESPN betting analysts Erin Dolan, Anita Marks, Eric Moody and Joe Fortenbaugh, along with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, offer up their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 40.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Dolan: The first-half total of under 20 currently sits at plus money at Caesars. It's not often you can find props at plus money, so I am grabbing it. The Steelers have been terrible at scoring in the first half. In fact, Pittsburgh has averaged just 2.0 points per game in the first half over its last five. The last time Ben Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass in the first half was against the Chargers on Nov. 21.
In short, it takes time for Big Ben to get rolling in games. Cleveland hasn't been much better, averaging only 12 first-half points over its past five games. The Browns might be able to run up the score if they decide to focus solely on the run, but Cleveland still ranks only 19th with an average of 21.0 points per game. Both teams trend toward the under, so I am taking this bet.
Pick: 1st half under 20 points (+100)
Schatz: Neither of these teams has been very good on defense this year, and both defenses have declined in recent weeks. The Browns rank 19th in defensive DVOA since Week 10, while the Steelers rank 26th in that time. While the Browns play slowly, the Steelers do not, ranking eighth in situation-neutral pace.
While the first game between these teams was low-scoring (15-10 back in Week 8), the Steelers have gone over this total in five of their eight games since then and the Browns have gone over this total in four of their seven games since. We estimate a 74% chance that this game goes over the posted total.
Pick: Over 40.5
Marks: This very well could be Ben Roethlisberger's last game at Heinz Field. He has to go out in style, doesn't he? Mike Tomlin as a home dog is 12-2-1 since 2003. Baker Mayfield is coming off a four-interception game and reports are that the Browns are looking to bring in "competition" for next year's starting QB job.
Pick: 1st half Browns/2nd half Steelers result (+240)
Fortenbaugh: A wildly inconsistent and turnover-prone Mayfield is laying 3.5 points on the road on Monday Night Football in what will be Roethlisberger's final home game? Sign me up! Mike Tomlin is a sports betting legend in the home underdog role while Cleveland boss Kevin Stefanski is a putrid 1-9 ATS against divisional opponents during the regular season. Warning: This bet is not for the faint of heart!
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Moody: The Steelers were dominated from start to finish last week as Kansas City's aggressive defense caught Pittsburgh off guard. Despite that, I expect Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense to deliver their best in what will likely be the veteran quarterback's last game at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh has been underwhelming all season but has handled business at home. They are 3-5 against the spread, and 5-2-1 overall, at home. The Browns, on the other hand, have struggled on the road. Cleveland has lost five of its seven road games this season and lost 15-10 to Pittsburgh as home favorites earlier this year.
Pittsburgh's run defense is among the league's worst, ranking 29th in run-stop win-rate. However, Pittsburgh's defense held the Browns to just 61 yards on 16 carries earlier this season. Furthermore, Mayfield has thrown six interceptions (and only eight touchdowns) on the road this season. This game should be close.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
