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Best bets for Monday Night Football: Seattle Seahawks at Washington
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWashington will host the Seattle Seahawks to wrap up Week 12 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).
This week, ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody, Anita Marks and Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder offer up their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington (-1, 46.5)
Bearman: A few weeks ago, with Russell Wilson coming back to the Seattle huddle and Washington sitting at 2-6, you'd never think that the home team would be favored here. However, I don't think they are favored by enough. Wilson is not right, no matter how many times he says he is. The Seattle offense has been downright abysmal since his return, with just 13 total points, one touchdown in 19 drives and 474 total yards in the two games. Something is off and the season is basically over for the Seahawks, who are 3-7 and playing in the best division in football.
Washington, on the other hand, has seen a resurgence, with back-to-back wins against the Buccaneers and Panthers. Taylor Heinicke has completed 78% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero picks in the two wins. If Washington can continue its recent streak and get past Seattle, it has Las Vegas next and then finishes with five straight NFC East games, basically controlling its own destiny. I'll take my chances with the much hotter team here in what is basically a toss-up.
Pick: Washington -1
Moody: Heinicke has exceeded 245.5 passing yards in six of his past nine games. He has enough receiving playmakers to succeed against a Seahawks defense that has allowed an average of 261.8 passing yards to Colt McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger over the past five games.
Pick: Heinicke over 245.5 total passing yards (-120)
So far this season, Terry McLaurin has averaged 9.7 targets and 74.8 receiving yards per game. Over the last three games, the Seahawks defense has allowed the fifth-most passing yards (277.3). Cornerbacks Ugo Amadi, Sidney Jones IV and Blessuan Austin are unlikely to stop McLaurin.
Pick: McLaurin over 66.5 total receiving yards (-120)
On his way back from a hamstring injury, Logan Thomas had no setbacks in practice this week. There have been some rumblings that Thomas may not play a full complement of snaps, but with Ricky Seals-Jones out with a hip injury, Thomas could well see more action than anticipated, particularly on passing downs. Since 2020, he has averaged 6.2 targets and 39.4 receiving yards per game. Thomas has a very good chance of surpassing that against the Seahawks. Zach Ertz, Marcedes Lewis, Dan Arnold, Adam Trautman and Pat Freiermuth averaged 52.0 receiving yards against Seattle's defense over the past five games.
Pick: Thomas over 33.5 total receiving yards (-115)
It's more likely that the game script would favor J.D. McKissic against the Seahawks since he runs more routes and sees more targets than committee mate Antonio Gibson. Over the past five games, he has averaged 6.0 targets and 44.2 receiving yards. Seattle appears to be vulnerable to running backs being used as receivers. Over the past five games, James Conner, AJ Dillon, Carlos Hyde, Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris averaged 5.8 receptions and 62.6 receiving yards against them.
Pick: McKissic over 26.5 total receiving yards (-115)
Walder: I believe Wilson will get it together after two poor games following his return from his finger injury. Still, even if he does, these receiving numbers for his top two wideouts are a little high given their target opportunities this season. DK Metcalf's expected receiving yards per game (based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats) is just 49.5. Tyler Lockett's expected receptions per game is 4.2. With a full-strength Wilson, I'd like both unders (and particularly Metcalf's). If Wilson ends up taking another week before returning to form? Well, that's just gravy.
Picks: Metcalf under 65.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), Lockett under 5.5 receptions (-140 at FanDuel)
Marks: Wilson has not been right since his return, and the Seattle offense cannot move the chains to stay on the field. On the other side of the ball, the Heinicke-led offense has moved the ball well, helping Washington to two straight wins (against the Buccaneers and Panthers, both good defenses). They have been a different team since the bye week -- which is typical for Ron Rivera-coached clubs. With TE Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel both expected back, the Washington offense can only improve.
Picks: Washington -1, Washington over 23.5 points (+100), Heinicke over 245.5 passing yards (-120)
Fortenbaugh: Seattle looks to be broken. Since Wilson's return, the Seahawks are 0-2 (both straight-up and against the spread) while averaging a ridiculously low 6.5 points and 237.0 yards per game. Conversely, Washington came out of their bye week with new life, defeating both defending champion Tampa Bay and Carolina, despite closing both games in the underdog position. Give me the home team in this spot.
Pick: Washington -1
