Baylor prediction: Can Bears ruin Texas’ Big 12 title game aspirations?

[biggins]

When Baylor has the ball​

Here’s three surprising words that Baylor fans surely have never heard before this season: Pound the rock.


That’s what the Bears will look to do (shocker) as they emphasis the running game early and often. Thanks to a running back committee of Craig “Sqwirl” Williams, Richard Reese and Qualan Jones, the squad ranks 21st nationally in rushing offense. In the Big 12, it ranks fourth overall in that same category.

This is because the Bears average 202.5 yards per game on the ground, led by Reese, who broke the freshman rushing record after recording 56 yards against TCU this past weekend. The original record (881) was set by Shock Linwood in 2013, and Reese now has 908 yards on the year. If he were to get over the 1,000-yard mark, he’d be the 16th player in program history to do so.
With all that said, it’s pretty clear where the emphasis has been all season long. Use that Jeff Grimes wide zone offense and try to run it down opponents’ throats. Oh, and don’t forget about pulling the trigger on fourth down.

Offensive coordinator Grimes and head coach Dave Aranda have made it no secret now. Their M.O. is to go for it, regardless of where they are on the field. So, if it’s 4th-and-6 or less and Baylor is on its own 35-yard line, don’t scream at the TV when the Bears remain on the field. The group ranks second nationally in fourth down conversions (23), trailing only Texas Tech (27), who has a former Baylor coach in Joey McGuire.

The Bears have converted 63.9% of their fourth-down attempts, a mark good for seventh among teams that have attempted 15+ fourth-down tries.

When Texas has the ball​

While Baylor has a strong rushing attack with Reese, Jones and Williams, there’s one guy that trumps all of them combined. And that would be tailback Bijan Robinson, I’m sure you’ve heard of him. He’s pretty good.

Robinson, an All-American, has rushed for 1,401 yards and 16 TDs, good for 127.4 yards per game on 229 carries. When the Bears were torched by Wildcat running back Deuce Vaughn, he reached 1,000 yards on the year in that contest. At the time of that game, Robinson had already totaled over 1,200 yards before his game against TCU that night
So, it’s safe to say the Tucson, Ariz. native is capable of giving this Baylor defense all sorts of trouble. But one good thing for the green and gold is that it held Robinson to 47 yards on 17 carries in Waco last season. That was also with a different quarterback at the helm, as the Longhorns now have star slinger Quinn Ewers.

Texas has more than enough capable playmakers, as names like Xavier Worthy, Roschon Johnson and Ja’Tavion Sanders haven’t even been mentioned yet. Texas is riding high off two wins over the last three games, highlighted by a 55-14 rout of the Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kan.

Expect the Horns to run through Robinson but also be fully capable of slicing the Bears apart through the air with Ewers and Worthy.

Prediction​

It’s senior day and Texas has much more to play for than Baylor. It’ll be close since the Bears play much better in 11 a.m. games and they’ve been a better road team over the season, but the Longhorns will take this one.
Baylor’s defense will get worn down and not be able to contain Robinson and Co., and the Horns will close out their season in impressive fashion and await the result of the Sunflower Showdown to determine their destiny regarding a trip to Arlington.

Score: Texas 35, Baylor 28

 

[BigJay]

The Longhorns ruined their Big 12 title game aspirations on their own this season.

Horrible losses to Tech and Oklahoma State

 

[biggins]

Baylor vs Texas Odds & Predictions: Longhorns to Win Big?​

Baylor Bears​

Bears Offense​

This Bears offense has been solid this year, mostly on the back of their running game. Baylor ranks 22nd in Offensive Success Rate and 27th in points per opportunity. On the ground, it ranks 19th in Success Rate, 23rd in PPA and 21st in Explosiveness.

Baylor runs at the 30th-highest rate in FBS, so it’s likely that its game plan will once again be centered around their strength on the ground. Texas has a stout run defense, so this may hamper the Bears’ offensive production.

Through the air, Baylor has been successful as well, but quarterback Blake Shapen does tend to let them down from time to time.

The Bears rank 20th in Success Rate and 34th in Passing PPA. However, they rank just 85th in Passing Explosiveness. This would be the route to use to attack Texas, but whether Shapen can get that done is another question.

Bears Defense​

Similar to the offense, Baylor’s defense excels in the running game. The Bears rank 45th in Rushing Success Rate, 41st in PPA and 32nd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.

This Bears defense will need to step up if they hope to stop Bijan Robinson, who just ran for 243 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas last weekend.

The way to target this Baylor defense is through the air. They rank just 88th in Passing Success Rate. However, because of their ability to limit explosive passing plays (39th), they are 64th in PPA.

Texas Longhorns​

Longhorns Offense​

Texas’ numbers for the season on offense are strong, and that would fail to account for the times that Quinn Ewers was sidelined due to injury. With Ewers in the game, the Longhorns have been even more efficient on offense.

Overall this team ranks 25th in Offensive Success Rate and is the 25th highest-rated offense by SP+. It’s fairly well-rounded, as both its run and pass rates are middle of the pack.

Texas is effective at attacking in both ways as well. The Longhorns rank 26th in Pass Success Rate and 38th in Passing PPA compared to 31st and 27th in those two figures when running the ball.

Behind Robinson, this Texas offense has the second-highest PFF Rushing Grade in the country, at 93.8, despite ranking 93rd in Run Blocking Grade. Robinson has rushed for 1,401 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season, which ranks sixth and fifth in the country, respectively.

This hasn’t been an overly explosive offense this year. Texas ranks 97th in Passing Explosiveness and 55th in Rushing Explosiveness, which puts them at 84th overall.

With Baylor being effective at preventing these explosive plays, the Longhorns may not pull away from the Bears at all if they aren’t able to generate these explosive gains.

Longhorns Defense​

As mentioned above, the strength of this Texas defense lines up directly with how Baylor will want to attack. Texas ranks ninth in Rushing Success Rate on defense and 13th in Rushing PPA allowed. It also boasts the eighth-highest PFF Run Defense Grade.

The Longhorns’ one weakness against the run is allowing explosive plays (70th), so it’s possible that one of these Baylor backs could get free on a long one.

Texas hasn’t been quite as strong against the pass.

It ranks 55th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 51st in PPA. The Longhorns have similar issues guarding explosive plays through the air, ranking 79th in Passing Explosiveness. However, Baylor’s passing attack isn’t potent enough for me to worry about this unit being in trouble.

Baylor vs Texas Betting Pick​

I like this matchup for the Longhorns as the Bears won’t be able to rely on their rushing game against this defense, and I don’t trust Shapen to take advantage through the air.

On the other side, I believe that Ewers will have an efficient day through the air when facing a Baylor team that has struggled to defend the pass this season.

SP+ has this spread set at Texas -11, and I like the value this presents on the consensus spread of Texas -8.5. This is a potential letdown spot for Baylor coming off of a deflating home loss a week ago, while Texas is still battling for a chance at the conference championship.

I would take the Longhorns up to -10 in this game.

Pick: Texas -8.5 (Play to -10)