Baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

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• Fantasy streamers are hard to find with so many No. 1 starters working on Wednesday's slate. To be honest, it's best to be patient and strike later in the week when the back end of most rotations come around again. Instead, look to fill open spots with widely available closers, such as Art Warren (6.8% rostered in ESPN leagues), Tanner Rainey (3.1% rostered), Jake Diekman (6.5%) and David Robertson (23.0%).
• Viable hitters to stream are even harder to track down. Adam Frazier (32.7%) is batting leadoff and has the platoon edge over Dallas Keuchel, making him a solid play. Frazier's teammate Eugenio Suarez (32.5%) is also someone to consider. In DFS, Suarez is more of a GPP play, while Frazier's floor works for cash games.
• Another trick on a tough slate is trying to sneak off with a stolen base or two. Surprisingly, Adalberto Mondesi is rostered in only 46.0% of ESPN leagues. Granted he's an injury risk, but when he's healthy Mondesi can be one of the most productive fantasy players. The Royals face Jordan Hicks and the Cardinals. Hicks' control is still suspect and catcher Yadier Molina isn't as adept at catching thieves compared to his salad days.
• Camden Yards has been home to quite a few slugfests over the years. It's only been a couple of games, but the renovations should temper scoring -- although perhaps less than perceived since while homers will drop, overall hits (especially doubles and triples) should increase. Even so, with Corbin Burnes and John Means on the hill, runs should be at a premium. Neither lineup makes for an attractive DFS stack, while the total favors the under since lines may not yet reflect the true impact of the left-field alterations.

 

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN's standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher's win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.

FPTS	Team	Pitcher	T	Opp	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	BR	K
15.7		Corbin Burnes	R	@BAL	-175	8.0	41.5%	5.7	1.8	5.8	7.1
14.2		Max Scherzer	R	@PHI	-105	8.5	35.3%	5.6	2.0	5.7	6.9
13.9		Gerrit Cole	R	TOR	-160	8.0	39.8%	5.9	2.4	6.7	7.2
12.5		Frankie Montas	R	@TB	+160	7.5	35.8%	5.7	2.2	6.8	6.5
12.5		Framber Valdez	L	@ARI	-160	9.0	55.4%	5.6	2.6	7.6	6.1
12.2		Clayton Kershaw	L	@MIN	-170	8.5	39.1%	5.5	2.4	6.3	5.9
11.6		Aaron Nola	R	NYM	-115	8.5	28.8%	5.7	2.5	6.8	6.7
11.2		Sean Manaea	L	@SF	+115	7.5	30.9%	5.4	2.2	6.4	5.5
11.0		Robbie Ray	L	@CWS	-115	9.0	30.7%	5.6	2.7	7.0	6.6

 

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10.6		Jose Berrios	R	@NYY	+140	8.0	27.7%	5.7	2.5	7.0	6.0
10.3		Max Fried	L	WSH	-210	9.0	36.7%	5.4	2.5	6.8	5.3
9.6		Kyle Hendricks	R	@PIT	-130	8.5	37.5%	5.7	2.7	7.3	4.8
9.4		Logan Webb	R	SD	-135	7.5	24.7%	5.1	2.1	6.6	5.2
8.9		Nathan Eovaldi	R	@DET	-125	8.0	30.7%	5.2	2.8	6.8	5.5
8.7		Dallas Keuchel	L	SEA	-105	9.0	33.5%	5.6	2.7	7.5	4.7
8.4		Eduardo Rodriguez	L	BOS	+105	8.0	27.6%	5.4	2.9	7.3	5.6
8.4		John Means	L	MIL	+155	8.0	20.6%	5.3	2.6	6.2	4.8
8.3		Shane McClanahan	L	OAK	-180	7.5	12.9%	4.4	1.8	5.5	5.1
8.1		Triston McKenzie	R	@CIN	+110	9.5	20.0%	4.6	2.3	5.9	5.3
7.7		Nick Lodolo	L	CLE	-130	9.5	20.8%	4.8	2.5	6.4	5.0
7.0		Merrill Kelly	R	HOU	+140	9.0	25.4%	5.4	3.2	7.6	5.2

 

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6.6		Josiah Gray	R	@ATL	+180	9.0	19.5%	5.1	3.0	7.0	5.2
6.4		Zach Thompson	R	CHC	+110	8.5	12.1%	4.2	2.0	5.4	4.0
5.9		Chris Paddack	R	LAD	+150	8.5	16.0%	4.7	2.8	6.4	4.6

 

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Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday​

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Tommy Pham (CIN, LF -- 50%) vs. Triston McKenzie
• Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF -- 46%) at Means
• Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B -- 3%) vs. Kyle Hendricks
• Steven Kwan (CLE, CF -- 2%) at Nick Lodolo
• Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B -- 1%) vs. Hendricks
• Nick Madrigal (CHC, 2B -- 49%) at Zach Thompson
• Abraham Toro (SEA, 2B -- 2%) at Keuchel
• Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF -- 34%) vs. Robbie Ray
• Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF -- 2%) at Thompson

 

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Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday​

• Luke Voit (SD, 1B -- 58%) at Logan Webb
• Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 92%) at Gerrit Cole
• Gary Sanchez (MIN, C -- 58%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF -- 92%) at Cole
• Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 63%) vs. Kershaw
• Alex Kirilloff (MIN, 1B -- 61%) vs. Kershaw
• Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 77%) vs. Nathan Eovaldi
• Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B -- 71%) vs. Eovaldi
• Austin Hays (BAL, LF -- 62%) vs. Burnes
• Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B -- 79%) at Aaron Nola

 

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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

• It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch.
• Gray has relied on his secondary pitches 7.1% more often this year (55%) than he did last year (47.9%).
• The wind projects to be blowing in from rightfield at 10.4 mph in this game, the second-best of the day for hurlers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

• Gray has been given a below-average leash since the start of last year, throwing 8.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
• Gray's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (92.43 mph) below where it was last year (93.92 mph).
• Truist Park sits at the second-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.

 

[Tanko]

Biggins is this from ESPN or some other site?

 

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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

Everything you need to know to place your MLB bets and set your fantasy baseball lineups for Wednesday, April 13.

www.espn.com

 

[Tanko]

Thank you sir.

 

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Max Scherzer - Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher - ESPN

View the profile of Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher Max Scherzer on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

www.espn.com

Aaron Nola Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Aaron Nola on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Sean Manaea Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of New York Mets Starting Pitcher Sean Manaea on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Robbie Ray Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of San Francisco Giants Starting Pitcher Robbie Ray on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Jose Berrios Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Jose Berrios on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Max Fried Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of New York Yankees Starting Pitcher Max Fried on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Kyle Hendricks Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Los Angeles Angels Starting Pitcher Kyle Hendricks on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

 

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Velocity increases​

Why do I think velocity increases are more actionable than velocity decreases? I think it's probably because there just isn't much about someone throwing harder that would appear to be flukey, whereas there are some reasons for a pitcher's velocity being down that wouldn't necessarily be a reason for concern. Whereas an increase in velocity is almost always a good thing – though not necessarily something that should or will change my perception of a player.
Here are the pitchers who added at least 1.5 mph to their average fastball velocity from the first weekend of action among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2021:

Name	2022	2021	DIFF
Mitch Keller	96.4	93.9	2.5
Shohei Ohtani	97.8	95.7	2.1
Carlos Rodon	97.4	95.4	2
Zach Davies	89.8	88	1.8
Tylor Megill	96.2	94.7	1.5
Merrill Kelly	93.3	91.8	1.5

Rodon and Ohtani are pretty good no matter how hard they throw, but in Rodon's case especially, it was incredibly promising to see him dialing it up like that after shoulder concerns scared off many would-be suitors. His 2021 breakout was fueled in large part by the emergence of his fastball as a high-90s bat-missing terror, and he was absurdly dominant in his debut against the Marlins, striking out 12 of 20 batters faced. It's fair to wonder how long Rodon can hold up, but after watching that start, I think he's going to be a top-12 starting pitcher as long as he's healthy, and that may not be giving him enough credit. There's a non-zero chance he's just the best pitcher in baseball right now.

Keller's velocity increase was what we expected after offseason reports and what we saw in spring training, but it's a bit concerning that he still just wasn't all that impressive. He got four strikeouts among 20 batters faced, with decent but unspectacular whiff rates on baseball all of his pitches. I'm still worried he's too hittable even when he's touching 99 mph, and his track record makes it so I don't have a super-long leash for him. The increased velocity does give him a higher margin for error, and it's not like he got hit hard in that first start – 86.4 mph average exit velocity – despite the four runs in four innings, so I'll hold him.

Megill and Kelly are the two I'm most interested in adding. Both have been serviceable in the past, so the hope is they can become something more than serviceable now. Megill is the priority given that he already had an above-average strikeout rate and 3.87 xERA in 2021, but Kelley now has 20 strikeouts to two walks in 11 innings since the start of spring training. His changeup garnered seven swings and misses on 17 pitches and could play up with the added velocity. Megill looks like a top-60, maybe top-50 pitcher, and Kelly is worth adding in all leagues too.

 

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Velocity decreases​

When it comes to velocity drops, I'm more willing to give the benefit doubt this year than normal given the shortened spring training. It's possible some guys just didn't have a chance to get fully up to speed, and I've seen some beat writers speculate that this is the point in the spring calendar where a lot of pitchers are working through dead arm as they ramp up. Add in that the weather is colder and you can definitely give guys the benefit of the doubt.

With that in mind, here are the pitchers whose average fastball velocity is down at least 1.5 mph from last season:

Name	2022	2021	DIFF
Robbie Ray	92.1	94.8	-2.7
Michael Kopech	95.3	97.4	-2.1
Shane Bieber	90.7	92.8	-2.1
Vladimir Gutierrez	91.3	93.3	-2
Nick Pivetta	93	94.8	-1.8
Zach Plesac	91.2	92.9	-1.7
Josiah Gray	93.1	94.6	-1.5
Cal Quantrill	92.8	94.3	-1.5

There are some big names there! Ray pitched well despite the lower velocity, though he also struggled with walks, which is always a concern with him. His success last year was tied to his fastball becoming a more effective pitch, which allowed him to challenge hitters in the zone more often. Can he pull off the same trick if this velocity drop sticks? Bad things tend to happen for Ray when he's issuing too many walks, given his issues with the long ball.

Similarly, Bieber tends to get hit pretty hard when he does tend to get hit, so his velocity dip is especially disconcerting. He'll still be able to rely on his excellent breaking balls for whiffs even if the fastball velocity is down, but if he's throwing in the low 90s, that could make his already middling fastball even worse. And, in Bieber's case, his velocity was already down the last time we saw him late in 2021 as he was coming back from a shoulder injury. If that is still an issue after an entire offseason, that would be a big red flag.

Ultimately, as I said, I'm willing to give guys the benefit of the doubt with early velocity dips. However, that doesn't mean I'm willing to overlook them entirely. For instance, if Bieber is still averaging around 90 mph with his fastball three starts from now, I'll be very concerned; ditto for Ray at 92. It's not that neither can be effective at that level, but it makes it a lot harder to pull off. The margin for error is simply slimmer with less velocity, and that's true for nearly all pitchers.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Thanks for the info Bigs

 

[parrothead]

Thank you for all the great information!