Army +31 vs LSU Saturday - Thoughts

[Tanko]

This game intrigues me. These teams are in the bottom 10 for number of possessions per game, each at 11.2 --> They play slow and/or run the ball a lot. Average # possessions in NCAA is 12.1

Army = 60% of offense is via the ground --> Clock runs.
The one thing Army does well is pass-D (10th in NCAA) so expect LSU to run the ball a lot too --> Clock runs.

The line at +31 and O/U 58.5 implies a 45-14 score. LSU can score having eclipsed 45 three times this year but I'm not sure with the anticipated slower than usual play, there will be enough possessions to get to the 58.5.

BUT what really interests me is the +31. With the clock running will there be enough possessions in this game to get LSU to cover the +31? I see this game playing out similar to the Army/Syracuse game (29-16 Syracuse). LSU and Syracuse are similar teams in offensive approach.


What say ye of the BMR forum.

 

[jjgold]

LSU always gives up a lot of points. That’s the only angle I have.

 

[JDS]

This game intrigues me. These teams are in the bottom 10 for number of possessions per game, each at 11.2 --> They play slow and/or run the ball a lot. Average # possessions in NCAA is 12.1

Army = 60% of offense is via the ground --> Clock runs.
The one thing Army does well is pass-D (10th in NCAA) so expect LSU to run the ball a lot too --> Clock runs.

The line at +31 and O/U 58.5 implies a 45-14 score. LSU can score having eclipsed 45 three times this year but I'm not sure with the anticipated slower than usual play, there will be enough possessions to get to the 58.5.

BUT what really interests me is the +31. With the clock running will there be enough possessions in this game to get LSU to cover the +31? I see this game playing out similar to the Army/Syracuse game (29-16 Syracuse). LSU and Syracuse are similar teams in offensive approach.


What say ye of the BMR forum.

What does the BMR model say about this game? I can’t view it from my mobile anymore because I can’t see odds on future games only until the day of.

 

[Tanko]

What does the BMR model say about this game? I can’t view it from my mobile anymore because I can’t see odds on future games only until the day of.

38-27 LSU

 

[JDS]

38-27 LSU

The model is in line with your prognostication.

 

[JDS]

38-27 LSU

What is the BMR model say about my BYU +4.5 play ? Like I said, I cannot view it anymore from mobile since it’s a future date on the BMR odds page.

 

[Tanko]

What is the BMR model say about my BYU +4.5 play ? Like I said, I cannot view it anymore from mobile since it’s a future date on the BMR odds page.

30-27 Texas Tech....
I'm not sure how much the model takes into account injuries.

 

[JDS]

30-27 Texas Tech....
I'm not sure how much the model takes into account injuries.

Thanks.

 

[Wagerallsports]

LSU isn't 'all that'

 

[jjgold]

Tanker I am going to tail you here

It better win , I do not like when others lose my money

 

[Tanko]

Tanker I am going to tail you here

It better win , I do not like when others lose my money

Good luck to us JJ....
If it loses, you can find me living in Diggity's shed.

 

[JDS]

Tanker I am going to tail you here

It better win , I do not like when others lose my money

At the end of the day if you tail or fade. It’s the posters financial responsibility to keep himself accountable with his own decisions.

 

[Tanko]

Hopefully, you got Army at 32.5.

 

[JDS]

Hopefully, you got Army at 32.5.

Watch out Tanko this guy will mush you at +31.5. This is a bad sign for you & this bet.

 

[Tanko]

Watch out Tanko this guy will mush you at +31.5. This is a bad sign for you & this bet.

If JJ's mushes me... I'm hunting him down and cutting his 2.5"er off... Oh wait. Nevermind. Not worth the effort.

 

[rdalert447]

 

[JDS]

If JJ's mushes me... I'm hunting him down and cutting his 2.5"er off... Oh wait. Nevermind. Not worth the effort.

Stubby gonna bury you guy, I’ve seen this movie before.