I think they will win. They won the series with Red Sox & split with Blue Jays (pretty good team).
Both starting pitchers had good openers so it will likely come down to who has better bats/bull pen.
NYY 0.238 BA, 0.709 OPS. (NYY have better bats)
BAL 0.198 BA, 0.590 OPS.
Bull pen stats:
NYY 3.67 xFIP, 1.21 ERA (Slight lean NYY on bull pen pitching advantage)
BAL 3.10 xFIP, 2.93 ERA