Anyone else think a crypto drop is imminent

[djefferis]

And a corresponding book failure occurs as well.

BTC now under 100k - could easily settle into the mid-high 80s by July 4th. If it does - we may well see some slow pays from previously secure books.

A lot of books hold everything in crypto for a variety of reasons - and alot of books have been developing a larger appetite for risk as the rising tide of crypto prices raised all boats.

Now that the tide is flowing out - will books remain as aggressive and if they do - someone is inevitably going to get burned.

Bettors Den was cutting more and more before - could it be a sign of things to come ? No nickel overnights - dime line on bases reduced to $500 and less accommodating of big bettors/larger payouts. I suspect they come back strong in football and it’s a conservative move to ensure long term stability - but who knows. Been around this game along time and vividly recall some shops doing similar - and coming back strongly in football only to get slaughtered by a bad run of square covers. Could happen again - be very careful my friends.

 

[flyingillini]

And a corresponding book failure occurs as well.

BTC now under 100k - could easily settle into the mid-high 80s by July 4th. If it does - we may well see some slow pays from previously secure books.

A lot of books hold everything in crypto for a variety of reasons - and alot of books have been developing a larger appetite for risk as the rising tide of crypto prices raised all boats.

Now that the tide is flowing out - will books remain as aggressive and if they do - someone is inevitably going to get burned.

Bettors Den was cutting more and more before - could it be a sign of things to come ? No nickel overnights - dime line on bases reduced to $500 and less accommodating of big bettors/larger payouts. I suspect they come back strong in football and it’s a conservative move to ensure long term stability - but who knows. Been around this game along time and vividly recall some shops doing similar - and coming back strongly in football only to get slaughtered by a bad run of square covers. Could happen again - be very careful my friends.

It will be interesting to see what happens here. Expect a blood bath next week in the markets. I see a 20% decline in the S&P coming very soon.

 

[jamesy2422]

i still wonder why crypto is as high as it is right now

 

[flyingillini]

I would love to see Peter Schiff debate Saylor on a stage. It will never happen though. It would get unreal ratings, it would break the internet!

 

[djefferis]

It will be interesting to see what happens here. Expect a blood bath next week in the markets. I see a 20% decline in the S&P coming very soon.

I don’t expect anything that dramatic - YET.

There will be some panic dumping by the general public I’m sure - but there was a reason they did this when they did.

Do this at 11am ET and you’d see the market shit itself - do it Saturday evening and by Monday AM it’s old news and traders have moved past it.

My 3 biggest holdings right now are XLE, CRCL and CRWV. All 3 making a tidy profit selling short term out of the money covered calls. That high volatility though is a risk and might be time to start cutting positions and taking profits. Plan was exit half of the 2 recent IPO’s around July 3rd - might accelerate that timeline. Otherwise - a bunch of unexciting consumer names and tobacco stuff for safety in my portfolio and cash making 4.5% - likely time to prune some of the safety stocks if they pop - and be prepared to buy back more if they retreat as things cool off.

 

[djefferis]

i still wonder why crypto is as high as it is right now

Speculation that the US is going to begin to regulate it and endorse its usage.

Rarely has government regulation been a positive thing for anyone. Remember 30 years ago when everyone said the government needed to legalize online gambling and tax it ? Yea - that’s worked out well for everyone, right ?

 

[KingKolzig]

Djeff how do you know books hold in crypto?

They announce it?

 

[djefferis]

Not announced - however it’s only logical that they would.

You have a business that’s continually targeted by US authorities seeking to seize financial assets - crypto is the easiest and most transferable asset out there. When you need to hide a few million - nothing is better to hold than crypto - even physical precious metals get difficult above the million mark.

 

[KingKolzig]

Not announced - however it’s only logical that they would.

You have a business that’s continually targeted by US authorities seeking to seize financial assets - crypto is the easiest and most transferable asset out there. When you need to hide a few million - nothing is better to hold than crypto - even physical precious metals get difficult above the million mark.

Some books held players balances in btc......if it went up/down it didnt mean anything to the book itself. Nitrogen was one book

 

[Tanko]

Speculation that the US is going to begin to regulate it and endorse its usage.

Rarely has government regulation been a positive thing for anyone. Remember 30 years ago when everyone said the government needed to legalize online gambling and tax it ? Yea - that’s worked out well for everyone, right ?

Senate passed a US Stable Coin bill this week. Would have expected some regulation to be implemented within that bill if it was coming.

What kind of additional regulation are you expecting Djeff?
All US based exchanges require KYC for tax reporting. What's next?

 

[djefferis]

Some books held players balances in btc......if it went up/down it didnt mean anything to the book itself. Nitrogen was one book

Yes - but most books convert to dollars (or other local currency).

There are a few books that keep your balance as crypto - but none I would trust.

 

[djefferis]

Senate passed a US Stable Coin bill this week. Would have expected some regulation to be implemented within that bill if it was coming.

What kind of additional regulation are you expecting Djeff?
All US based exchanges require KYC for tax reporting. What's next?

Hard to say - but just like most things (including the stable coin bills) what starts small eventually gets more and more built into it that’s discovered after passage.

Remember how “simple” the legal gambling bills were and how big it was when it started in many states. Now you got multiple states trying to tack on additional taxes and crying it’s not been as profitable as it was supposed to be. Books promised big $$$ and it’s time to pay up - but revenue isn’t what they had hoped. How many books were there in a lot of states to start and how many left standing now ?

 

[jjgold]

Financial instruments go up and down the long-term most of go up all you need to know

 

[KingKolzig]

Yes - but most books convert to dollars (or other local currency).

There are a few books that keep your balance as crypto - but none I would trust.

So its just books hold a percentage in crypto seems like. Id guess the strength of the dollar and a client run on withdrawals cause of dollar/stock market is more important then even a big btc blow down to 70k in just a few days. My guess

 

[djefferis]

Financial instruments go up and down the long-term most of go up all you need to know

MOST go up - but crypto is one very specific holding and long term isn’t what 90% of the holders of these coins are thinking about. A 15% drop becomes a 30% sell off far too easily in the retail market.

I’d be curious as to how much some books hold in crypto vs say cash or cash equivalents. Obviously they are not likely converting cash into other financial products as that invites questions from probing minds of mid level government types. You can’t just walk in and deposit a couple million into your local bank without getting asked questions as to the source of funds. Obviously - Panama is a little looser about those requirements due to the number of clients who value “privacy” / but still there are risk of doing business there.

 

[jjgold]

Losers sell and sharps laugh at them