Any Thoughts This BYU Team ?
- Thread starter jjgold
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This game line sucks.
Might be too high, I felt it opened too high. I think it's closer to a 20 point game. But then that line popped a bit before hitting an ideal 27.5 and coming back down.
That 7.5 off that particular forecast makes me think this game was manipulated up to get that better number.
I am not surprised that number fell but now we're in a very nefarious range.
If there is enough public pressure we could see 27, but right now I think there is still some fairly sharp +26.5, or edge of so at +27 type money to keep it at bay.
I was close to getting the dog here, but the conifdence level here on the rest of the forecasts has me watching the number, again.
I wouldn't be surprised, if it's not the underdog killing the tease, that the line will come into play down the stretch.
Might be too high, I felt it opened too high. I think it's closer to a 20 point game. But then that line popped a bit before hitting an ideal 27.5 and coming back down.
That 7.5 off that particular forecast makes me think this game was manipulated up to get that better number.
I am not surprised that number fell but now we're in a very nefarious range.
If there is enough public pressure we could see 27, but right now I think there is still some fairly sharp +26.5, or edge of so at +27 type money to keep it at bay.
I was close to getting the dog here, but the conifdence level here on the rest of the forecasts has me watching the number, again.
I wouldn't be surprised, if it's not the underdog killing the tease, that the line will come into play down the stretch.
I feel that the BYU side is being overrated here and see about 10-12 points less for BYU but about the same, little less for Denver, depending on the forecast.
So basically I have BYU with 87-88 to Denver's 68-69 at the most raw numbers.
BMR model likes the OVER here while I have it at the market, or just below.
The difference is the BYU assessment, the 10-12 point difference.
It is my feel that BYU is being slightly overrated in the market for a few reasons. One of which is the desire to support the spreads, even the large ones, as they have been successful all season. As that desire meets the need for BYU to bounce back from not just failing to cover for the first time this year, but actually losing outright as a small favorite it can show in the market.
But it's a tough spread right now to bet into, in my opinion.
We can see this effect in football when offensive production is poor and the team is a favorite at home the following week. There is an expectation for the home team.
Further, taking any elevation issues into account can be a mistake as this road dog is from Denver.
There are a lot of probabilities with the results, of course, but there a few things that go into that line. I feel there is some manipulation involved with the tolerance of some of the BYU favorite money and the might have countered the position on a Denver play.
Curious to see if the market supports 27 here by game time.
But it's a tough spread right now to bet into, in my opinion.
We can see this effect in football when offensive production is poor and the team is a favorite at home the following week. There is an expectation for the home team.
Further, taking any elevation issues into account can be a mistake as this road dog is from Denver.
There are a lot of probabilities with the results, of course, but there a few things that go into that line. I feel there is some manipulation involved with the tolerance of some of the BYU favorite money and the might have countered the position on a Denver play.
Curious to see if the market supports 27 here by game time.
We've been bouncing around a coupe threads here with this game. I just posted some potentially relevant info in Jerky's thread and thought I'd throw it in this BYU thread too...
There is still plenty of time for trading as we're about 3.5 hours away from tip.
Right now the market is leaning price wise on the OVER 157.5 or on a base 158 with Caesars in NJ hanging a 156.5.
Perhaps they know already, or at least some of their customers do.
There is still plenty of time for trading as we're about 3.5 hours away from tip.
Right now the market is leaning price wise on the OVER 157.5 or on a base 158 with Caesars in NJ hanging a 156.5.
Perhaps they know already, or at least some of their customers do.
Important to note that this game has traded in the 156.5 range and will see some support there. We could see back and forth trades at 156.5 and 157, and even 157 of and on 157.5 as the market absorbs the trades.
But an official injury report could push it through 156.5.
But an official injury report could push it through 156.5.
Ok, I'll chill on the updates but will say that there is some sharp money in the NJ area that likes the OVER at these 156.5 and 157 range but for the most part the "sharp" money has hit the UNDER, for whatever volume it could during this last half hour.
I did my best to walk us through it, first anticipating the move, then pointing the key moves out. It remains to be seen if there will be an injury update to solidify that sharp money move.
3 hours to go until game time DENVER +26.5 remains a strong CONTRARIAN play while the UNDER 157.5 and better has given us nothing but sharp money signals across the market. This is not a very high volume game, yet, and that is important to note for the CONTRARIAN outlook though recent volume has come in and limits do remain a little low with an expectation that they rise between now and gametime at some of the larger houses.
Good luck whatever you take.
I did my best to walk us through it, first anticipating the move, then pointing the key moves out. It remains to be seen if there will be an injury update to solidify that sharp money move.
3 hours to go until game time DENVER +26.5 remains a strong CONTRARIAN play while the UNDER 157.5 and better has given us nothing but sharp money signals across the market. This is not a very high volume game, yet, and that is important to note for the CONTRARIAN outlook though recent volume has come in and limits do remain a little low with an expectation that they rise between now and gametime at some of the larger houses.
Good luck whatever you take.
Damn, your brain goes 1,000,000 miles a minute when it comes to these closing numbers. Thanks for sharing your POV though on the movement.Ok, I'll chill on the updates but will say that there is some sharp money in the NJ area that likes the OVER at these 156.5 and 157 range but for the most part the "sharp" money has hit the UNDER, for whatever volume it could during this last half hour.
I did my best to walk us through it, first anticipating the move, then pointing the key moves out. It remains to be seen if there will be an injury update to solidify that sharp money move.
3 hours to go until game time DENVER +26.5 remains a strong CONTRARIAN play while the UNDER 157.5 and better has given us nothing but sharp money signals across the market. This is not a very high volume game, yet, and that is important to note for the CONTRARIAN outlook though recent volume has come in and limits do remain a little low with an expectation that they rise between now and gametime at some of the larger houses.
Good luck whatever you take.
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