Odds, horse-by-horse betting analysis for 157th Belmont Stakes
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Michael Kipness, aka “The Wizard,” a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986, analyzes the eight-horse field for Saturday’s 157th Belmont Stakes, designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.
Visit Wizardraceandsports.com to purchase his full card selections, wagering strategies and best bets for Friday’s 14-race card and Saturday’s 14-race card at Saratoga.
Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:
1. Hill Road, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
Deep closer exits a career best race, winning the Peter Pan on May 10. Takes a steep step up in class in the Belmont. Pretender.
2. Sovereignty, Junior Alvarado, 2-1
Sovereignty’s Kentucky Derby win was impressive. Despite minor bumping and traffic after the break, Alvarado negotiated the 18-horse field near perfectly. He managed to place Sovereignty in a clear spot along the inside, saving ground through the early portions of the race. From there he angled out for clear running, had dead aim and finished strong for the win.
Additionally, the contested pace of that race played to Sovereignty’s strengths. We now know five weeks’ rest and a 10-furlong Belmont run at Saratoga was always the plan.
Closers and off-the-pace runners like Sovereignty need either a class advantage, a strong pace — like the one in the Derby — or both. The size and projected pace for this Belmont field traveling the 10 furlongs around Saratoga’s speed-favoring oval projects to be significantly different than the Derby.
Sovereignty is fresh and looks poised to deliver another strong effort. This colt will be running hard and fast at the leaders late. Contender.
3. Rodriguez, Mike Smith, 6-1
With nine weeks to rest and recover from the effort in the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez arrived at Saratoga fresh. The foot bruise that caused him to miss the Derby and the Preakness is apparently well behind him. This Belmont field was decidedly devoid of early speed, until the late entry of owner Bobby Flay and Todd Pletcher trainee Crudo.
Rodriguez is the class speed of this Belmont field. Smith will ride Rodriguez as if Crudo is not even in the race. Additionally, I expect Baeza and Journalism to be sitting third and fourth behind these two. Control of the pace of this race and its outcome is in Smith’s hands. Contender.
4. Uncaged, Luis Saez, 30-1
Beaten by 10 lengths by Hill Road in Peter Pan. Totally overmatched here. Pretender.
5. Crudo, John Velazquez, 15-1
Could be on the lead early if that’s the intention. More likely to chase Rodriguez. Either way, he will be done on the far turn. Pretender.
6. Baeza, Flavien Prat, 4-1
Baeza arrives at Saratoga fresh off five weeks’ rest. In his third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, he demonstrated the willingness and ability to adapt to a change in tactics and race from well off the pace. In the Belmont, he will race comfortably among the front half of this field.
I see this improving colt tracking from just off the pace and will likely have aim on the leaders at the top of the lane. Can he reel in the speed? Can he outkick rival Journalism? Can he hold off Sovereignty?
It must be noted that his trainer, John Shirreffs, is not only a superb horseman, but I would even consider him a “horse whisperer.” He has won several marquee stakes races, with his most important coming in the 2005 Kentucky Derby when Giacomo scored a huge upset.
Another Shirreffs-trained horse scored a major upset in 2007 when Tiago, a half-brother to Giacomo, won the Santa Anita Derby. He is also the trainer of champion filly Zenyatta, who was beaten only once in 20 career starts, and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2009. Contender.
7. Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, 8-5
Journalism’s efforts during the Kentucky Derby proved he was a worthy favorite. Like many drawn among the inside half of the field, he bumped with rival Burnham Square at the start, then found himself shuffled back and in mild traffic when rail horse Citizen Bull veered out in front of and into the paths of rivals to his immediate outside.
Rispoli gathered Journalism up and veered in for running room in the clear along the inside. From there, Journalism enjoyed a nearly perfect trip inside before Rispoli angled him off the inside late down the backside, gaining clear running room outside rivals. Journalism gamely picked off rivals into the far turn, emerging in the clear at the top of the stretch with dead aim on tiring leaders.
Journalism led for a moment but was unable to hold off the hard-closing Sovereignty and finished second.
Victory for Journalism in the Preakness looked doubtful when Rispoli opted to remain inside rather than angle out from behind rivals and take the overland route. Rispoli’s move into a crevice of space between rivals and the ensuing bumping deserved a look from the stewards. More impressive was Journalism’s fast finish to reel in a tiring but game leader in Gosger.
There are questions which must be asked of Journalism as the probable post time favorite: Will a win require a repeat of his recent Derby and Preakness efforts? Can he deliver another win making his fifth start in three months and facing fresh rivals? Contender.
8. Heart of Honor, Saffie Osborne, 30-1
Finished a non-threatening fifth in the Preakness. Maybe he rounds out the superfecta but is clearly not a win threat. Pretender.
