An Update On This Year's College Basketball Freshmen

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Hits and misses from the 2021-22 men's college basketball freshman class so far​

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The high school class of 2021 was always going to be fascinating to track as college freshmen. They were a group that mostly made college decisions without visiting campuses, while also contending with an exploding transfer portal, a one-time transfer waiver and a free year from the NCAA for the non-freshmen.

Through the first two and a half months of the 2021-22 men's college basketball season, it's clear there have been more questionable fits and first-year struggles among the ESPN 100 than in the past. Entering Tuesday, only 21 ESPN 100 prospects were averaging double figures in scoring. Only 19 were playing eight or fewer minutes per game.

That's not to say the group is without talent, however. The top three prospects in ESPN's 2022 NBA draft rankings are freshmen, as are five of the top seven and 12 of the top 21. Three of the top four teams in the AP poll -- and five of the top 10 -- have freshmen playing key roles.

With six weeks still left in the regular season, and plenty of time for newcomers to emerge, it's time to take stock of this year's freshmen so far.

*All stats as of Jan. 25

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Best of the Best​

Paolo Banchero, Duke Blue Devils​

Banchero is no longer the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in June, but it has very little to do with the Seattle native's production so far in Durham -- it's more due to Jabari Smith's emergence. Since launching his college career with 22 points and seven rebounds against Kentucky in the season opener, Banchero has been one of the most consistent offensive players in the country. He scored at least 20 points in four straight games before "settling" for 15 points, 13 rebounds and four assists against Syracuse on Saturday. On the season, he's averaging 17.9 points and 7.9 rebounds.

Jabari Smith, Auburn Tigers​

It's odd to say that a top-five recruit and projected top-10 pick snuck up on anyone this season, but Smith moved into the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick awfully quickly. And no one saw it coming back in November.

Smith is a special player. He's not as productive as Banchero at the college level, nor does he possess the elite shot-blocking ability of Chet Holmgren. But he's 6-foot-10, fluid and smooth, has good inside-outside ability and makes plays defensively. He had 25 points and four blocks against Alabama earlier this month and made two game-changing plays against Kentucky last weekend.

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga Bulldogs​

Besides some offensive struggles in high-profile games against Texas and Texas Tech, Holmgren has been effective since the start of the season and is playing his best basketball right now. Over his past four games, the 7-0 forward is averaging 15.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.3 blocks and shooting 54.5% from the 3-point line on nearly three attempts per game. He's been one of the most efficient frontcourt players in the country on the offensive end, ranking in the top 10 nationally in true shooting percentage, while also showing his defensive dominance by ranking in the top 15 in block rate.

Blake Wesley, Notre Dame Fighting Irish​

Back at ACC Media Day in October, Notre Dame coach Mike Brey couldn't stop raving about Wesley, telling me he thought the freshman guard was a pro and likely wouldn't be in South Bend for all four years. Brey wasn't wrong. Wesley has been fantastic for the Fighting Irish, averaging 15.0 points on the season, scoring in double figures in his past 15 games entering the week -- including 24 points against Illinois and three 20-point performances in ACC play. He has been, by far, the best non-ESPN 100 freshman in the country, and he is on multiple NBA teams' radars.

TyTy Washington Jr., Kentucky Wildcats​

There were overreactions to Washington's 3-for-14 shooting effort against Duke in the season opener, but he has rebounded to become one of the best freshman guards in the country -- as was expected entering the campaign. Washington is averaging 13.6 points and 4.4 assists, numbers skewed by a game against Auburn, which he left after just nine minutes due to injury. Washington has had multiple huge games too, scoring 28 points against Tennessee and totaling 17 points and 17 assists in a win over Georgia earlier this month.

Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee Volunteers​

In high school, Chandler was one of the best playmakers in the country, capable of beating his man off the dribble and consistently getting into the paint. Those skills have carried over to college, with Chandler averaging 13.3 points and 4.9 assists as the starting point guard for the top-25 Volunteers. He's also spearheading one of the nation's elite defenses, averaging 2.3 steals per game. His scoring has been inconsistent lately, but he also has at least two steals in six of his past seven games.

Tyrese Hunter, Iowa State Cyclones​

Hunter was one of the biggest surprises of the first month of the season, putting up 19 points and five steals in a November win over Xavier. While his scoring and shooting fell off over the next six weeks, Hunter still made an impact with his passing and defense. He racked up 20 points and four assists in a loss to Oklahoma and went for 13 points and eight assists in a home win over Texas.

Bryce McGowens, Nebraska Cornhuskers and Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown Hoyas​

Barring a miracle, neither McGowens nor Mohammed will be playing in March, given the state of their six-win teams. But both players have been productive at a high level this season and find themselves on the NBA's radar. McGowens is averaging 15.7 points and has eclipsed the 20-point mark on five occasions, while Mohammed is averaging 13.6 points and had 23 points, 13 rebounds and five assists in a win over Syracuse earlier this season.

 

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Four surprises​

Ryan Nembhard, Creighton Bluejays​

Given the success of his brother Andrew, the starting point guard at Gonzaga, we probably should've seen this coming. But Ryan has been one of the best freshmen in the Big East since stepping into the point guard role for Creighton on day one. He opened his career with 15 points and 10 assists against Arkansas Pine Bluff and went on to hit double figures in the first six games of his career. He has slowed down since then, but did have 18 points and six assists in a loss to Xavier earlier this month.

Brandon Murray, LSU Tigers​

Murray is playing his best basketball right now. He scored in double figures in just three of his first 11 games, but is averaging 11.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and shooting 50.8% from the field over his past seven. Murray has provided some perimeter pop for the Tigers with Xavier Pinson out with an injury, and he is also part of the nation's best defense. The Baltimore native is putting up 9.7 points on the season.

Terquavion Smith, NC State Wolfpack​

Towards the bottom of the 2021

ESPN 100, Smith has turned out to be one of the top-scoring freshmen at the high-major level this season. He's averaging 14.9 points and 3.6 rebounds so far, with 55 made 3s on a 36.2% clip. Smith has scored at least 20 points on six separate occasions, including 20 points and four 3-pointers in a win over Virginia last weekend. Since moving into the starting lineup seven games into 2021-22, Smith is averaging 17.7 points on 38.2% shooting from 3.

Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee Volunteers​

Zeigler was playing on the Nike EYBL circuit last summer, hoping to get a scholarship offer due to his slow recruitment as a senior. After an impressive July with the New Heights Lightning, Zeigler picked Tennessee. He is playing a much larger role than originally expected. He's averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals, but he also had 18 points against North Carolina back in November, and he has played a key role in SEC games.

 

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Eight mid-major stars​

DaRon Holmes II and Malachi Smith, Dayton Flyers​

If Holmes and Smith stick around for four years, Anthony Grant has two Atlantic 10 spectacular players in his program. Holmes was an ESPN 100 prospect expected to make a massive impact -- and he has done just that, averaging 11.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.5 blocks while shooting 65.9% from the field. Most recently, the forward went for 20 points, seven boards and three blocks in a win over St. Bonaventure last week. Smith, the younger brother of former Dayton guard Scoochie, is putting up 10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists and has totaled double-digit assists on two occasions this season.

Ray'Sean Taylor, SIU Edwardsville Cougars​

Taylor is the top freshman scorer not named Paolo Banchero, averaging 16.9 points to go with 4.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists. He has had seven 20-point games this season so far, including a whopping 26 points and five steals in a loss to Morehead State earlier this week. Taylor has only failed to hit double figures twice all season, and is also contributing almost two steals per game.

Amir Spears, Duquesne Dukes​

Spears was up and down for the first couple months of the season, but has been at his best over the past four games for the Dukes. During that span, he's averaging 17.8 points while shooting 50% from the field and 43.8% from 3. Spears is capable of big performances, having hit the 20-point mark four times already this season.

Taran Armstrong, California Baptist Lancers​

Armstrong burst onto NBA radars early, averaging 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists while shooting 46.2% from 3 in the first five games of his college career. The 6-5 point guard from Australia looked like one of the best freshmen in the country almost immediately. Of course, he didn't keep up that early pace, although he did dish out 15 assists in a win over North Dakota. A hand injury has unfortunately kept him out for most of the past month.

Will Richard, Belmont Bruins​

On a veteran team starting three seniors and one junior, Richard has battled his way into the lineup, starting 16 games this season and averaging 12.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists with 29 made 3s. The guard scored in double figures in five of his first six games of the season, and he has scored at least 13 points in his past three.

Tucker DeVries, Drake Bulldogs​

DeVries was a four-star recruit who could have played high-major basketball, but opted to play for his father Darian, the Bulldogs' head coach. It took seven games for DeVries to move into the starting lineup, but in 13 games as a starter, he is averaging 14.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.5 made 3s. He had the first double-double of his career last weekend in a win over Northern Iowa.

Jao Ituka, Marist Red Foxes​

If you're looking for a pure bucket-getter, Ituka is your guy. The Maryland native has scored at least 20 points in three of his past six games, including 34 in an overtime win at Boston University in December. He does nearly all of his damage inside the arc, perhaps unusual given his 6-1 stature. Here's the eye-opening stat for Ituka: He's averaging 14.3 points in just 19.1 minutes and has started just four games all season.

Jordan Gainey, South Carolina Upstate Spartans​

One of the catalysts of the Spartans' surprise 5-1 start to Big South play, Gainey never topped 15 points in his first 12 games of the season, hitting double figures seven times over that span. He has taken his game to a new level in conference play, however, scoring at least 16 in each of his past six games, averaging 18.2 points and shooting 56.7% from 3. On the season, Gainey is putting up 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and shooting 51.2% from the perimeter.

 

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Top-100 recruits waiting their turn​

Nate Bittle, Oregon Ducks​

Despite being ranked No. 11 in the ESPN 100, Bittle wasn't expected to make a huge impact in year one. He has shown flashes, playing 20 minutes and scoring eight points with four blocks in a win over Pepperdine, but he has also logged four DNPs since Dec. 1 and is stuck behind the older, more physical N'Faly Dante and Franck Kepnang in the rotation. Bittle's time will come.

Benny Williams, Syracuse Orange​

The Orange's season is circling the drain rather quickly, and Williams continues to see his role diminish as the season progresses. He hasn't scored since a Jan. 8 game against Wake Forest, and Jim Boeheim has publicly discussed his struggles. The 6-8 forward has been buried the past few games in a deep frontcourt -- but seniors Jimmy Boeheim, Buddy Boeheim and Cole Swider could all be gone next season too.

Bryce Hopkins and Daimion Collins, Kentucky Wildcats​

Collins might be the more surprising pick addition here, given his early-season role -- including a start and 25-minute appearance against North Florida, where he scored 12 points and grabbed six rebounds. Neither player has seen much of a role in SEC play, although Hopkins played 15 minutes against Vanderbilt. If Oscar Tshiebwe leaves early, expect Collins to have a breakout sophomore season.

Pierre Brooks, Michigan State Spartans​

The Spartans are well-stocked in Brooks' role, with Max Christie, Gabe Brown, Joey Hauser, Malik Hall and others all capable of showing some level of versatility on the wings or at the forward positions. So Brooks' seven DNPs aren't too shocking. Tom Izzo also has a veteran team, with three juniors and three seniors in the rotation, so the roster could look very different next season.

Zach Clemence and K.J. Adams, Kansas Jayhawks​

Neither Clemence nor Adams has made a consistent impact in the frontcourt, with David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot and Jalen Wilson all returning up front. But Adams played key late-game minutes against Texas Tech on Monday, seeing a season-high 17 minutes and scoring six points while grabbing four boards. Clemence had 11 points in a November win over Stony Brook, but has played just nine minutes in 2022.

Jordan Longino, Villanova Wildcats​

Jay Wright always seems to have players that stick around through some early adversity and end up being real factors by the end of their career. That could be Longino. He's a strong-bodied guard from the Philly area who should see a much larger role next season when seniors Collin Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels and Brandon Slater all potentially leave.

Shane Nowell, Arizona Wildcats​

Nowell didn't expect to play an extended role on the perimeter this season, with Arizona bringing back three key players and adding transfers Pelle Larsson and Justin Kier. Kier and Bennedict Mathurin could both be gone after April, though, leaving the freshman guard with a bigger role under Tommy Lloyd in 2022-23.

D'Marco Dunn and Dontrez Styles, North Carolina Tar Heels​

Two Roy Williams recruits who opted to keep their commitments following his retirement, neither Dunn nor Styles is seeing consistent minutes early in their Chapel Hill careers. Both saw minutes in the blowout losses to Miami and Wake Forest, but that's not expected to be a usual occurrence.

Kaden Perry, Gonzaga Bulldogs​

Despite playing in just two of the past 10 games, I'm optimistic about Perry's involvement next season. I was impressed with his game in high school, and Gonzaga frontcourt players have a pretty high hit rate when it comes to developing in Spokane and becoming impact players. Drew Timme and Holmgren could both be gone next season, opening up minutes.

Jonas Aidoo, Tennessee Volunteers​

Aidoo reopened his recruitment last spring following the coaching change at Marquette and ended up following assistant coach Justin Gainey from the Golden Eagles to Tennessee. The 6-11 forward hasn't played since Dec. 14 and only saw 12 minutes this season, but another year of development and the departure of John Fulkerson should free up a role next season. He was a late bloomer in high school, but has the potential to be a factor.