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All in Sinner $100 Credit bet

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,385
Zverev coming out of the tougher bracket, I'd say, but that just might serve to tire him out.

What did you pay?

My analysis suggest that the leading side of the movement, not lagging would be the sharp side and that it is Zverev. There is still trading to go but then again and it's tough to say if the situation will change. As of now, I'd say it won't.

This doesn't mean the bet is bad, it's about the number in that anaylsis and it's worth noting that the line itself hasn't moved too much.

After all, even if the better than 2-1 is the sharper side of the bet, it will still hit less often, or at least it should.

Good Luck

:drinks:
 

quantumleap

quantumleap

Joined
Apr 10, 2022
Messages
4,124
Zverev coming out of the tougher bracket, I'd say, but that just might serve to tire him out.

What did you pay?

My analysis suggest that the leading side of the movement, not lagging would be the sharp side and that it is Zverev. There is still trading to go but then again and it's tough to say if the situation will change. As of now, I'd say it won't.

This doesn't mean the bet is bad, it's about the number in that anaylsis and it's worth noting that the line itself hasn't moved too much.

After all, even if the better than 2-1 is the sharper side of the bet, it will still hit less often, or at least it should.

Good Luck

:drinks:
Joker's retiring helped out Zev in the fatigue factor.

Sinner went down to -256 at Pinn for awhile. Zev down to +229.

I'm going to hedge a bit more on Sinner. I think I'll not hedge as much as I originally thought.

Thanks for the feedback.
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,385
Joker's retiring helped out Zev in the fatigue factor.

That's right, I actually completely forgot about the retirement when I typed that, even though I saw it happen.

Seems like a major thing to forget about, lol.

My bad.

200w.gif
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
16,095
Zverev coming out of the tougher bracket, I'd say, but that just might serve to tire him out.

What did you pay?

My analysis suggest that the leading side of the movement, not lagging would be the sharp side and that it is Zverev. There is still trading to go but then again and it's tough to say if the situation will change. As of now, I'd say it won't.

This doesn't mean the bet is bad, it's about the number in that anaylsis and it's worth noting that the line itself hasn't moved too much.

After all, even if the better than 2-1 is the sharper side of the bet, it will still hit less often, or at least it should.

Good Luck

:drinks:
As far as Zverev being tired, he only had to play one set before Joker retired

That said, Sinner didn’t get much of a test vs Shelton. And hasn’t been tested much other than the match against Rune when he got the luck of a 30 minute or more break
 
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BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
16,095
Joker's retiring helped out Zev in the fatigue factor.

Sinner went down to -256 at Pinn for awhile. Zev down to +229.

I'm going to hedge a bit more on Sinner. I think I'll not hedge as much as I originally thought.

Thanks for the feedback.
What do you stand to win if Z prevails?
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
19,619
Zverev coming out of the tougher bracket, I'd say, but that just might serve to tire him out.

What did you pay?

My analysis suggest that the leading side of the movement, not lagging would be the sharp side and that it is Zverev. There is still trading to go but then again and it's tough to say if the situation will change. As of now, I'd say it won't.

This doesn't mean the bet is bad, it's about the number in that anaylsis and it's worth noting that the line itself hasn't moved too much.

After all, even if the better than 2-1 is the sharper side of the bet, it will still hit less often, or at least it should.

Good Luck

:drinks:
Sinner was limping around last match. He looked exhausted. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retires after the 1st set. He doesn’t have it in him to close this out. He doesn’t have want the will and integrity like Connors, McEnroe, Sampras or Arthur Ashe. Sinner doesn’t belong in the upper echelon of tennis names. He’s got a long way to go. He gets beat today and it won’t take long.
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
19,619
He still commands the favorite but this thread pointing out the the line did drop, even if not much.

Still a lot of trading to go, let's see if late money hits one way or the other.
You haven’t applied “variance” to the latest pinnacle line. Real amateur move by you today KVBster. You are slipping lately. Not sure if you are lazy or just getting sloppy, my line using your variance calculator shows different numbers. God bless
 
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quantumleap

quantumleap

Joined
Apr 10, 2022
Messages
4,124
What do you stand to win if Z prevails?
I originally bet 1 unit to win 96 units but hedged 10 units on Sinner to win 3.4 units. I just did that mostly as a test to see if I could get the money down.

I was thinking about betting 23 more units on Sinner to profit a total of 10 units if he wins. That would leave me 63 units of a win if Zev pulls it out.
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
19,619
Oh shit, you're right.

I need to rework my analysis...

giphy.gif
I just used your variance calculator that you sent me on Telegram, the upgraded version not the old version @DiggityDaggityDo aka the new Dad "tries" to use, but with his 5th grade math brain doesn't understand how to apply "fair value" numbers to the number. I am getting Sinner -249, Zverev +221. I expect more from you, considering you graced me with the upgraded version. Don't be lazy your peers expect more out of you.
 
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