A lot on the line tonight charger game

[jjgold]

I think you got to play the home team if I make a play it’s definitely gonna be the Chargers

 

[phillyflyers]

They're still in the hunt for a playoff spot so they should be focused.

 

[Headsterx]

Thank you!!!

 

[flyingillini]

I have never seen so much hype over a Thursday night game, this game is going to be one for the ages.

 

[jjgold]

It looks like printing money

 

[seaborneq]

I don’t care who wins but I haven’t done well with Thursday Night Amazon games. It seems like the home team always wins

 

[Headsterx]

I don’t care who wins but I haven’t done well with Thursday Night Amazon games. It seems like the home team always wins

Did you watch last week?

 

[seaborneq]

Yes I did. I have watched every week. Last week is the exception not the rule.

 

[seaborneq]

Home is teams are 10-5 this year. Probably a better percentage than than the Sunday home teams games.

 

[Archie]

Home is teams are 10-5 this year. Probably a better percentage than than the Sunday home teams games.

straight up or spread?

 

[djefferis]

Normally I’d be concerned JJ was on the side I already took - but did have a nice run last Sunday on NFL.

Chargers and under are the plays I think here.

 

[seaborneq]

straight up or spread?

Straight up

 

[KVB]

Home is teams are 10-5 this year. Probably a better percentage than than the Sunday home teams games.

We are in week 15 but there were 3 Thursday games on 11/28, Thanksgiving.

Counting those, I have home teams straight up on Thursdays this season at 12-5. (3-0 on 11/28)

ATS the home teams are 10-6-1. (2-1 on 11/28)

The spread push is on 12/5 and was Detroit beating GB by 3 points but that spread did trade mostly at 3.5, closing at 3. Pinny was dealing something like +3.5 (-129) at one point. So if not a push, the home team failed to cover there.

Home teams straight up on Sundays are 87-95 (47.8%).
If a bettor had faded all home teams on the ML this NFL season, risking the same unit each bet, that bettor would be up over +13 units, depending on the number.

When it comes to the spreads, home teams are 79-99-4 (55.6% w/o the 4 ties).
A bettor risking the same unit fading the home teams on Sunday this NFL season would be up about +11.5 units, depending on the line.

 

[KVB]

This is also a flex game.

Per league scheduling rules I think a team is not allowed to have two short week (Thursday) road games in a season.

Denver was flexed into this road game, making it the second road Thurs game this season (they were at New Orleans Thursday 10/17, winning 33-10).

NFL seems to be liking Denver, something to note for sure.

 

[Headsterx]

We are in week 15 but there were 3 Thursday games on 11/28, Thanksgiving.

Counting those, I have home teams straight up on Thursdays this season at 12-5. (3-0 on 11/28)

ATS the home teams are 10-6-1. (2-1 on 11/28)

The spread push is on 12/5 and was Detroit beating GB by 3 points but that spread did trade mostly at 3.5, closing at 3. Pinny was dealing something like +3.5 (-129) at one point. So if not a push, the home team failed to cover there.

Home teams straight up on Sundays are 87-95 (47.8%).
If a bettor had faded all home teams on the ML this NFL season, risking the same unit each bet, that bettor would be up over +13 units, depending on the number.

When it comes to the spreads, home teams are 79-99-4 (55.6% w/o the 4 ties).
A bettor risking the same unit fading the home teams on Sunday this NFL season would be up about +11.5 units, depending on the line.

Thank you! This is helpful rather than a generalization statement that all home teams seem to win on TNF. Though it’s understandable as this is a JJ’s thread.

 

[flyingillini]

This is also a flex game.

Per league scheduling rules I think a team is not allowed to have two short week (Thursday) road games in a season.

Denver was flexed into this road game, making it the second road Thurs game this season (they were at New Orleans Thursday 10/17, winning 33-10).

NFL seems to be liking Denver, something to note for sure.

I see an error with the line to be honest. Right now at Pinnacle they are dangling a fruit here. Currently they have

Denver +2.5 -100
Chargers -2.5 -110

However, after doing my calculations with the free Variance calculator you have graced the forum with , the true value line is Denver +3 +106, I feel the bookmakers are making a mistake here. Your calculator is never wrong.

 

[seaborneq]

Thank you! This is helpful rather than a generalization statement that all home teams seem to win on TNF. Though it’s understandable as this is a JJ’s thread.

Does it back up the home teams seem to win more on Thursday nights? If you needed numbers to back up 15-20 games you are clueless.

 

[BobbyFK]

I am on Denver + 2 1/2. If they win they are in the playoffs so I think that will motivate them

 

[flyingillini]

I am on Denver + 2 1/2. If they win they are in the playoffs so I think that will motivate them

that 1/2 is going to cost you, you need it at 3 to be safe Bobby.

 

[BobbyFK]

that 1/2 is going to cost you, you need it at 3 to be safe Bobby.

I realize that. I was even thinking of just playing them on the ML as I see them winning SU