A Look At All 32 NFL Team Trends In First 2 Weeks

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Real or mirage? Evaluating NFL trends in the first two weeks​

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Two games does not make an NFL season, but it's enough of a sample for trends to be established. Which early trends will have lasting power during the 2023 season, and which will dissipate as the season goes on?

We're diving into that question with the help of our NFL Nation reporters, who identified an early tendency from the team they cover, then determined whether the trend will continue through the season or whether it's a mirage that will be forgotten come January. Some of these trends are on the happy side (we see you, Puka Nacua) and others aren't that great at all (sorry, Ja'Marr Chase).

Let's get to the real-or-mirage assessments, starting with the AFC East:

AFC EAST​

Buffalo Bills​

The early surprise: The Bills' run defense is second worst in yards per rush allowed.



The verdict: Mirage. The Bills allowed the longest run in the league this season (83 yards to the Jets' Breece Hall in Week 1). In reality, the Bills' defense had success against the Raiders on the ground, holding Josh Jacobs to minus-2 yards on nine carries. The Bills have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and the deep defensive line has the potential to significantly improve from allowing 5.3 yards per rush, especially when Von Miller returns from the right ACL tear he suffered last year. -- Alaina Getzenberg

 

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Miami Dolphins​

The early surprise: The Dolphins' offensive line has allowed one sack through two games

The verdict: Real. For all the Dolphins' struggles as a pass-blocking unit last season in finishing 24th in pass block win rate (55.6%), they allowed the ninth-fewest sacks in the league. That came with a patchwork offensive line that dealt with major injuries to three starters (and a couple of backups). Even without their best overall lineman in left tackle Terron Armstead (back, knee and right ankle injuries), the Dolphins have the 18th-best pass block win rate in the NFL. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is also getting the ball out faster than any other starter in the NFL (2.35-second time to throw). Dolphins GM Chris Grier said he wasn't as concerned about his team's offensive line as some fans; so far, he's spot-on. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

 

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New England Patriots​

The early surprise: The Patriots are struggling to run the ball

The verdict: Mirage. Until the Patriots get their offensive line together for an extended stretch, it is premature to judge the running game (47 carries, 164 yards, 3.48 yards per carry). Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the team's top offensive players, but the lack of holes to run through within the first two weeks has been notable from the line -- which has struggled since Day 1 of training camp. -- Mike Reiss

 

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New York Jets​

The early surprise: WR Mecole Hardman Jr. is a nonfactor

The verdict: Real. Hardman played only 12 offensive snaps and made one reception in the first two games. The Jets signed the former Chief to a one-year, $4 million contract, advertising him as more than a gadget player. They said the objective was to expand his route tree, turning him into an all-around receiver. Clearly, that hasn't happened. The coaches say that game plan and game situations haven't allowed them to use Hardman, but it seems like an offense that has produced only two touchdowns should be able to find a way to incorporate his game-breaking speed into the plan. This two-game trend isn't a positive harbinger for Hardman. -- Rich Cimini

 

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AFC NORTH​

Baltimore Ravens​

The early surprise: QB Lamar Jackson has completed 74.5% of his passes

The verdict: Mirage. It's been an impressive start under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but Jackson would be hard-pressed to continue completing passes at this rate. His career completion percentage is 63.7%. Now, a realistic goal is for Jackson to surpass his career-high completion rate of 66.1% in his 2019 MVP season. Jackson has a couple of factors working in his favor. Monken has modernized the passing game with his detailed routes. Jackson also has so many more viable targets in the passing game this year that he can look for the open receiver instead of trying to force the ball to tight end Mark Andrews. -- Jamison Hensley

 

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Cincinnati Bengals​

The early surprise: WR Ja'Marr Chase is averaging 4.4 yards per target

The verdict: Mirage. The targets aren't the issue for Chase, as he ranks 21st in the league through two games. But those looks haven't translated into production. At 0.93 yards per route, he ranks 66th in the league in that category among qualifying receivers, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. If quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy, and that's a big if, Chase's target depth and overall numbers should rise. He had 2,501 receiving yards in his first two seasons and is one of the NFL's best big-play threats. -- Ben Baby

 

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Cleveland Browns​

The early surprise: The Browns lead the league in pass rush win rate

The verdict: Real. Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith look like one of the league's top pass-rushing duos. Ogbo Okoronkwo is also applying pressure out of Cleveland's three-DE sets. And new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is bringing the house down early and often with a series of blitzes, so leading the league with a 69.6% pass rush win rate isn't a shock. Though Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are struggling offensively, there's nothing to suggest that Cleveland won't be able to get after opposing passers the rest of the year. With its offense in disarray, Cleveland's pass rush will have to keep making plays if the Browns are to have any chance of contending in the AFC North. -- Jake Trotter

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers​

The early surprise: The Steelers rank 31st in total offense per game and 26th in points per game

The verdict: Real. This is only a surprise if you thought Matt Canada's offense would take off in quarterback Kenny Pickett's second year. Take the preseason for what it's worth, but in five series, the offense appeared to move the ball more fluidly than in all of 2022. Through two regular-season games, though, the Steelers' offense is even worse than a year ago, averaging 247 yards and 16.5 points per game. If you remove the 14 points scored by the defense on Monday night, the Steelers are averaging 9.5 points per game on offense, the worst mark in the NFL. They're also averaging a league-low 12 first downs. Last season, they averaged 20.3 points per game. -- Brooke Pryor

 

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AFC SOUTH​

Houston Texans​

The early surprise: The Texans' defense is allowing QBs to complete 76.4% of their passes

The verdict: Mirage. The biggest reason for the high completion rate, which is the third worst in the NFL, is injuries to starting safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward. Backup safety Eric Murray also suffered an injury during the Texans' Week 2 loss with the Colts. The Texans have generated pressure in the pass rush, as opposing quarterbacks have been pressured on 43.1% of their dropbacks, good for fifth in the league. So when Pitre and Ward return, which should be sooner than later, expect that percentage to drop. -- DJ

 

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Indianapolis Colts​

The early surprise: The Colts lead the league in rushing defense

The verdict: Real. The Colts have long been solid against the run, so them giving up 2.6 yards per carry isn't a stunner. But they have been particularly stout despite their shortcomings against the pass, which is a product of their underwhelming cornerback play. The numbers here underscore the performance of interior defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, who continue to solidify themselves as one of the best duos in the NFL. Another indicator that this trend could stick is that the Colts are getting penetration up front: Opponents are averaging 1.13 yards before contact on rushes -- second best in the league. -- Stephen Holder

 

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Jacksonville Jaguars​

The early surprise: The Jags' offense ranks last in third-down conversion rate

The verdict: Mirage. The Jaguars ranked ninth last season and have nine returning starters on offense, plus the team added WR Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars' offensive line has struggled against two of the league's better defensive fronts in the first two weeks and didn't have a lot of success on first and second down, either. Of their 24 third-down conversion attempts, 14 have been 5 yards or longer -- including six of 10 yards or longer. Better work on first and second downs will help them convert more than their current rate of 25% on third downs. -- Michael DiRocco

 

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Tennessee Titans​

The early surprise: The Titans are tied for third in rushing yards allowed per game

The verdict: Real. Stopping the run is something the Titans take personally, so allowing 65 yards per game isn't shocking. Tennessee has built its roster to be stingy run-defenders. Defensive tackle Teair Tart is developing a reputation as one of the league's best run-stoppers. Tart uses a lightning-quick swim move and agile footwork to get past interior offensive linemen and tackle backs for a loss. Jeffery Simmons is also a force along the interior, with Denico Autry setting the edge. Tennessee's defensive backs also tackle well, especially the safeties. It's no coincidence the Titans are already among the top three run defenses. The Titans had the NFL's top rushing defense last year and were 0.1 rushing yards short of that spot in 2021. -- Turron Davenport

 

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AFC WEST​

Denver Broncos​

The early surprise: The Broncos are tied for the league lead in accepted penalties

The verdict: Mirage. There was almost no issue Broncos coach Sean Payton was more aware of when he arrived than Denver's penalties in 2022, as the Broncos' 113 penalties were tied for second in the NFL. The Broncos are tied with Baltimore for the league lead with 19 accepted penalties through two games. They also lead the league in defensive infractions with 12. Payton promised it would be cleaned up and said, "before you talk about how to win games, you also have to understand how not to lose games.'' -- Jeff Legwold

 

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Kansas City Chiefs​

The early surprise: The offense ranks 22nd in scoring

The verdict: Mirage. The Chiefs haven't looked right in scoring 18.5 points per game. They've cost themselves with turnovers, dropped passes and penalties, making it difficult for them to get into any kind of rhythm. These types of mistakes are unusual in large numbers for the Chiefs. Look for them to clean up a lot of these, especially as All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce gets healthier and more into the offensive flow. -- Adam Teicher

 

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Las Vegas Raiders​

The early surprise: RB Josh Jacobs is averaging 1.6 yards per carry

The verdict: Real ... for now. The reigning NFL rushing leader is rounding into shape after sitting out OTAs, minicamp, training camp and the exhibition season in a contract stalemate. And the Raiders are breaking in a new right guard in Greg Van Roten, so the offensive line is taking a bit to jell. And with the Raiders never having control of the line of scrimmage at Buffalo, where the All-Pro running back rushed for minus-2 yards on nine carries, the lack of success running the ball is entirely too real. Once Jacobs gets into game shape, the O-line is able to enforce its will and the Raiders are no longer one-dimensional, the tide will turn. At least, that's what the Raiders are counting on. -- Paul Gutierrez

 

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Los Angeles Chargers​

The early surprise: The Chargers still can't close out games

The verdict: Real. In Week 1, the Chargers had an opportunity to beat the Dolphins when quarterback Justin Herbert took the field with a little more than two minutes remaining, but they faltered in a two-point loss. A week later, Herbert had another chance in overtime against the Titans, but three incompletions led to Tennessee's winning field goal. A new offensive coordinator, a veteran linebacker, a first-round receiver and a newly rich quarterback were supposed to change things for the Chargers. But big expectations, followed by immense letdowns, have always been the standard for this team, and through two games, they have continued. -- Kris Rhim

 

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NFC EAST​

Dallas Cowboys​

The early surprise: The Cowboys are averaging five sacks per game

The verdict: Mirage-ish. With star linebacker Micah Parsons, maybe anything is possible, but averaging five sacks per game seems a bit much. The NFL record for sacks in a season is 72, set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. To think the Cowboys will get 85 sacks at their current pace is mind-boggling. But the Cowboys have a pass rush that can come from "anywhere at any time," according to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. It's not reliant on only Parsons, who has three sacks in two games. The Cowboys' record for sacks in a season is 62. That seems doable, especially since the core of this defense produced 54 sacks last year. -- Todd Archer

 

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New York Giants​

The early surprise: The Giants' defense has zero sacks

The verdict: Real ... for now. That's right, the old goose egg after two games. This isn't what you expect from Wink Martindale's aggressive defense. The defensive front is supposed to be the strength of this team. But it will not last. The Giants started to blitz relentlessly and got pressure in the second half on Sunday. The sacks will come. They were in the top half of the league (13th) last season with mostly the same group. -- Jordan Raanan

 

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Philadelphia Eagles​

The early surprise: The Eagles are ranked 21st in passing offense

The verdict: Mirage. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing offense have shown some rust in averaging 162.5 yards per game, but the early struggles can be largely tied to how opponents are playing them. Defenses are dropping seven and eight men into coverage and keeping the safeties back to prevent big plays downfield. If Philadelphia continues to run the ball effectively (more than 250 rushing yards in Week 2), it'll force defenses to change their approach, which should open things up through the air. -- Tim McManus

 

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Washington Commanders​

The early surprise: DE Montez Sweat has 1.5 sacks per game

The verdict: Real. Sweat probably won't average 1.5 sacks per game this season; that'd set an NFL record. But it speaks to him finishing more at the quarterback, as he failed to record a double-digit sack season in his first four years. Some of his improvement stems from his work with assistant line coach Ryan Kerrigan, the team's all-time sack leader. But it's also a function of the talent around him. The line has multiple playmakers in tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen and fellow end Chase Young. Sweat has been relentless more than he's been quick to the ball; he's taking advantage of passers either being flushed from the pocket or holding the ball thanks to improved coverage in the secondary. That said, Sweat is playing at a high level. -- John Keim