Weekend best bets: Sharps back side, total in LSU-USC at Allegiant
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Louisiana State and Southern California produced the past two Heisman Trophy winners in quarterbacks Jayden Daniels (2023) and Caleb Williams (2022), the top two picks in this year’s NFL draft.
Their replacements — Garrett Nussmeier of LSU and Miller Moss of USC — combined for nine touchdown passes in their bowl games, and they will square off Sunday in their season opener in the Vegas Kickoff Classic at Allegiant Stadium.
“That’s a very unique game where the quarterbacks for each of these teams last season was a guy who won the Heisman Trophy, and now they both have to reset,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “We saw how bad the USC defense was last season, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if (Trojans coach) Lincoln Riley had the offense humming right out of the gate."
”Pro bettors agree with that assessment. Murray said the SuperBook has taken sharp money on USC +6 (now +4½) and over 63½ (now 64½).
CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall made the LSU-USC over his best bet this weekend, noting that the Trojans are on a 21-6 over run and the Tigers are riding a 19-2 over streak.
"Even with new quarterbacks both ways, Moss and Nussmeier played very well in their bowl game auditions last season, and there remain some serious questions about both defenses,” Marshall said. “New defensive coordinators for both teams after both ranked well into triple digits nationally on defense last season.”
VegasInsider handicapper Chip Chirimbes, who placed second in the Review-Journal College Challenge last season, made the Trojans (+4½) his best bet.
"USC has started 6-0 both seasons under Lincoln Riley, and he is 6-1 against the spread as an underdog at USC getting three points or more,” Chirimbes said. “The Tigers are 0-4 against the spread when favored by 15 points or less in their first game. Riley rates a small edge over (LSU coach Brian) Kelly.”
Other sharp plays at the SuperBook include UCLA -12½ (now -14) over Hawaii; West Virginia +10½ (now +8) over Penn State; Arizona State -6½ (now -7) over Wyoming; and UNLV +3 (now +2½) over Houston.
Best bets
— Colorado State (+31½)
Sharp bettors have been all over Colorado State over Texas, causing the line at the SuperBook to drop from +35 to +31½.
That makes sense because Texas has that big trip to Ann Arbor looming next weekend,” Murray said. “I guess they’re thinking look-ahead spot.”
"That was part of Paul Stone’s thinking in making the Rams his best bet.
The Texas-based handicapper has the Longhorns pegged for a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, while Colorado State has not made a bowl game or finished with a winning record since 2017.
But Stone (@paulstonesports) believes the Rams and third-year coach Jay Norvell will snap both droughts this season, and he likes them plus the generous points.
“Tory Horton is one of the top wide receivers in all of college football and should provide some offense for Colorado State,” Stone said. “Plus, Texas could have one eye focused toward the north with a trip to Michigan on deck next weekend.”
Texas Christian-Stanford Under 60
Alex White, who won Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing college football contest in 2022, will make her debut in the RJ College Challenge this year.
White, whose father, Kenny White, is a longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and handicapper, made Friday’s TCU-Stanford under (60) her best bet.
“Last year under coach Troy Taylor, Stanford was 5-2 to the under at home. The average final score was 51 at Stanford Stadium compared to 59 on the road,” said White (@alexwhitee). “Taylor wants to run the ball, run the clock and protect the defense. The 2023 youth of his offensive line now pays dividends, with all five starters returning.
“TCU was the complete opposite. Home games saw an average of 57 points while road games averaged just 49½.”
— Connecticut-Maryland Over 45
Dana Lane won the RJ Challenge last season with a 37-26-2 ATS record (58.7 percent). He likes Connecticut and Maryland to go over the total of 45.
“To see where UConn was as a program compared to where they’ve been under Jim Mora, I’m interested to see the program’s progression after finishing the season 5-2,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “Maryland features a new quarterback for the first time in three seasons, but (Wisconsin transfer) Nick Evers has plenty of weapons to rely on. This number continues to plummet, making the over more attractive by the day.”
