3/31/22 CBB Tx A&M vs Xav, Coastal vs Fresno

[Tanko]

Lets start with the easy one...

Coastal v Fresno St.
Fresno does have 1 player out (Ballard - not leveraging) and 1 player questionable (Holland). Holland has not played since March 17th so if he does return tonight it will only be a bonus. I don't see that factored into the line. They've played well the last 2 games without him.

Coastal has not played anyone close to Fresno's (KenPom 78th) caliber since Dec 19th (Mid-Tenn). Their avg opp rank over the last 2 months is 211 with the best of those being Tx State (133), which they lost that game by 3.

Fresno has not lost to a team ranked as low as Coastal (KenPom 149) all season. They've only lost 3 out of 21 games to teams ranked lower than 100, all 3 were on opponent's courts, and all 3 of those losses were tight games.

Performance comparisons: Fresno's Off-Eff is 148th and Def-Eff is 32nd. Coastal's is 195th and 102nd respectively. Everything seems to indicate This should be a 6-8 pt spread, not 3.

They key matchup for Fresno is 6'-9" Mostafa (Coastal) vs 7'-0" Robinson (Fresno). Robinson should have an easy day of it and reach his 20 pt avg without pause. The only way I see Coastal staying close is from 3pt range. They are decent (36%) from 3's but I don't see them making enough to stay close.

I'm on Fresno -3.
Good luck.

 

[carolinakid]

bol with Fresno!!

 

[Tanko]

bol with Fresno!!

Thx CK

 

[Tanko]

Xav vs Tx A&M
This one is a little tougher to call. I see A&M as the slightly better team and the spread (-4) agrees.
I would lean Tx A&M ML but its a little juicy (-184) so I'll probably go with the -4. We'll see how the line moves.

A&M has played exceptional over the last month. They have beaten very good teams (Ark, Aub) and only lost to Tennessee in their 12 games during that period. They've won their 4 NIT games by an average of 15 pts, with every game winning by double digits. Their opponents weren't bad either (Oreg, Wake, Wash St. - all ranked in Xavier's range). I see momentum and a drive to prove NCAA selection committee wrong with this team.

I have bet against Xavier their last two game ( results 1-1 ATS). In the NIT they've played decent teams but none are of the quality of A&M (KenPom 33). Xavier's best win was against Florida (KenPom 59). I don't think they have the quality to stand up to A&M.

Some older data from Feb-Mar shows Xavier played 7 straight games against opponents similar in quality to A&M. They lost 6 of those games. Their average loss was 8 pts. It's old data that I don't put a lot of weight on but it helps to support my A&M selection. If that data showed the opposite results, I might back off some on this game. It didn't so I'm on A&M.


Good luck.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I like the Fresno play and will likely be on it as well

 

[Tanko]

I like the Fresno play and will likely be on it as well

Hopefully, Fresno will come through for us today Wager.

 

[lemartinsports]

Xav vs Tx A&M
This one is a little tougher to call. I see A&M as the slightly better team and the spread (-4) agrees.
I would lean Tx A&M ML but its a little juicy (-184) so I'll probably go with the -4. We'll see how the line moves.

A&M has played exceptional over the last month. They have beaten very good teams (Ark, Aub) and only lost to Tennessee in their 12 games during that period. They've won their 4 NIT games by an average of 15 pts, with every game winning by double digits. Their opponents weren't bad either (Oreg, Wake, Wash St. - all ranked in Xavier's range). I see momentum and a drive to prove NCAA selection committee wrong with this team.

I have bet against Xavier their last two game ( results 1-1 ATS). In the NIT they've played decent teams but none are of the quality of A&M (KenPom 33). Xavier's best win was against Florida (KenPom 59). I don't think they have the quality to stand up to A&M.

Some older data from Feb-Mar shows Xavier played 7 straight games against opponents similar in quality to A&M. They lost 6 of those games. Their average loss was 8 pts. It's old data that I don't put a lot of weight on but it helps to support my A&M selection. If that data showed the opposite results, I might back off some on this game. It didn't so I'm on A&M.


Good luck.

great breakdowns Tanko, but I'm with you on Texas A&M!! (POD video currently pending). Best of luck

 

[parrothead]

Still trying to decide who I like in these matchups

 

[BobbyFK]

Great analysis into the games! Best of luck with your wagers