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2024 NFL mock draft: Matt Miller's preseason Round 1 predictions
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe 2023 college football season kicks off this weekend with Week 0 action, but NFL scouts have already been working ahead on the 2024 draft class prospect list for months. Quarterbacks Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) headline a loaded group, and this could be one of the deepest offensive tackle classes in quite some time. There are plenty of high-end defenders and elite receivers at the top of the board, too.
How might Round 1 look by next April? I'm making an early prediction of all 32 first-round picks with my preseason mock draft. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projected the draft order, which starts with the Cardinals with the No. 1 pick.
Three teams have already traded their Day 1 selections, and I worked off the assumption the Jets will end up with the Packers' pick, too, based on conditions in the Aaron Rodgers deal. Here's how I see Round 1 at this point in the process:
1. Arizona Cardinals
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
If the Cardinals do end up at No. 1 -- which ESPN's FPI predicts -- that means things didn't go well for them this season. This is the worst roster in the NFL on paper, and the team is breaking in a new general manager and coach. There would of course be conversations about trading the pick for a massive bounty, given Kyler Murray is already in Arizona. But I could also see the Cards drafting Williams and trading Murray, especially if the 2019 top pick struggles in his return from a torn ACL in his right knee. It might be difficult with Murray's big contract, but if Arizona bottoms out this season, the new regime could opt to make a change.
Williams has already been called a generational prospect and the next Patrick Mahomes by some scouts. He finished fifth in the country in Total QBR last season (87.6), and no one threw more touchdown passes than his 42. Williams' dual-threat ability, creativity in and out of the pocket and 6-foot-1, 215-pound frame make him a natural fit with the rebuilding Cardinals -- as long as he actually does leave school early to declare for the draft.
2. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio StateThanks to the draft day trade with the Texans, the Cardinals could have a pair of early first-round picks next April -- and in this case, the first two on the board. It would allow the Cardinals to execute a massive offensive rebuild by following up the Caleb Williams pick with the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson (2007).
Harrison is 6-4, shows savvy and smooth route running, and is excellent at tracking and attacking the ball. He'd be the Cardinals' No. 1 receiver from the second he puts on a jersey, and the trio of Williams, Harrison and 2023 first-round tackle Paris Johnson Jr. would give Arizona solid young players at the three most important offensive positions. Harrison hauled in 77 balls for 1,263 yards and 14 TDs last season.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Drake Maye, QB, North CarolinaIf the Buccaneers are selecting in the top five next April, neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask did enough to cement the QB1 job long term. Given the low investment made in both of them, it stands to reason Tampa Bay would move on if given the chance to draft a premier prospect. Maye is built like Justin Herbert at 6-4 and 230 pounds and has high-end downfield passing ability and pocket mobility. He broke out in his first season as a starter for the Tar Heels in 2022, throwing 38 touchdown passes to seven interceptions.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Turner, EDGE, AlabamaWith a young franchise quarterback already on roster (Anthony Richardson), the Colts would have tough decisions to make in the top five. This could be a trade back spot for a team trying to come up for the class' QB3, or the Colts could look to upgrade at left tackle if Bernhard Raimann doesn't develop in Year 2. But don't count out improving the pass rush. The Colts have thrown money and draft picks at pass-rushers but to date don't have a marquee player on the edge of the defense.
Turner has the first-step quickness and power to change that. The 6-4, 242-pound junior had four sacks in 2022 and is poised for a breakout. In fact, an area scout says Turner might be even better than former teammate Will Anderson Jr. as a draft prospect: "Turner has better length, he's taller, and he'll fill out his frame better."
5. Los Angeles Rams
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn StateAndrew Whitworth retiring is among the chief reasons the Rams struggled last season, but a top-five selection would provide a chance to address the left side of the offensive line. An evaluator from an AFC team with over 10 years of NFL experience told me this is the deepest tackle group he can remember, and Fashanu is graded as OT1 right now, showing great mobility and quickness. A first-year starter in 2022, Fashanu allowed zero sacks and just two pressures.
Yes, the Rams could try to position for one of the top quarterbacks, but fixing the left tackle spot with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp still having solid years ahead of them makes the most sense for a long-term team build.
6. Tennessee Titans
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida StateThe Titans have two young quarterbacks on the roster behind Ryan Tannehill in Will Levis and Malik Willis, so it's unlikely the front office would draft another, even with a top-10 pick. Instead, they could address the defensive line. Verse would likely have been a top-15 draft pick had he entered the 2023 draft; he returns for his senior season as one of the top defenders in the nation. His nine sacks and 31 pressures last season put him on the map, and at 6-4 and 260 pounds, he has the ideal build to play in coach Mike Vrabel's scheme.
7. Green Bay Packers
Joe Alt, OT, Notre DameWe can assume based on the Packers' drafting history that this pick won't be a wide receiver, and we still don't know what they have in Jordan Love at quarterback. Regardless, this roster is in need of some level of rebuild, notably along the offensive line. Left tackle David Bakhtiari turns 32 this season and has just two years left on his contract. Alt could slide in perfectly given his experience in a pro-style offense at Notre Dame. He surrendered just one sack and five pressures last season, and at 6-8, 320 pounds, the 20-year-old could bring power to the Green Bay offense.
8. Washington Commanders
Quinn Ewers, QB, TexasThe Commanders named second-year quarterback Sam Howell as their starter, but they also have a new owner and uncertainty surrounding the future of the front office and coaching staff. Howell showed promise in his one start in 2022 and could play his way into the job long-term. But Ewers, one of the highest-rated prep recruits of the past decade, has fantastic all-around ability at 6-2 and 200 pounds.
He missed a month of his 2022 season with a shoulder injury and has been uneven at times (15 touchdown passes to six interceptions last season), but he flashed command, accuracy and second-effort ability outside the pocket. Will he now take the next step under Steve Sarkisian and elevate the Texas program back to greatness before potentially being an answer under center for Washington?
9. Las Vegas Raiders
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, AlabamaLike the Commanders, the Raiders are entering a pivotal year for the front office and coaching staff, and a disappointing season could turn into a teardown. Maybe they look for a quarterback if Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't meet expectations and/or preseason standout Aidan O'Connell, a rookie fourth-rounder, isn't seen as the long-term answer. But cornerback remains a weakness, as the franchise has been plagued with poor decisions on draft weekend at the position.
McKinstry is a smooth cover man with explosive closing speed when coming down to the ball. His 6-1, 195-pound frame allows him to lock down all types of receivers. And while he has just two interceptions over 27 games, McKinstry had 14 pass breakups last season alone. His combination of playmaking ability and length have him nearly cemented into the CB1 spot before the college season even starts.
10. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio StateThis selection is part of the package the Panthers sent to Chicago for this year's No. 1 overall pick, and the Bears can use it to bolster the defensive line. They used Day 2 picks on defensive tackles Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens in April but still need help on the outside. They had only 20 sacks last season, last in the NFL.
At 6-4 and 270 pounds, Tuimoloau had 3.5 sacks, 27 pressures and two interceptions in his breakout 2022 season. "He doesn't look like [Nick or Joey] Bosa or Chase Young," said an area scout from an NFC team who has seen the best Big Ten pass-rushers of the past 15 years, "but he's the most talented defensive end [from that program] since those guys left Ohio State."