2024 NFL Draft Prospects With True First-Round Grades

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2024 NFL draft: Prospects with first-round grades, plus comps​

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How many first-round prospects are there in the 2024 NFL draft class?

You might be thinking the answer is 32, since there will be 32 selections in Round 1 come April 25 in Detroit. But we aren't talking about how many players will be drafted in Round 1; we're talking about how many carry a true Round 1 grade.

NFL teams don't typically deem many prospects in a given class as Round 1-caliber talents, and never 32 of them. More realistically, around 15 per class earn a real first-round grade, though the number varies by team and scouting department. These sacred evaluations are reserved for prospects who would be Day 1 selections regardless of year, and my own rule of thumb is whether the player would have been one in each of the past five classes.

Confusing? Welcome to the world of scouting.

I tackled my list for the 2024 class with a strict grading scale after handing out 20 first-round scores in 2023, and I ended up with 16 names at this point in the process -- up from 14 in late December. I'll update this list periodically until draft time, so the number will keep changing with the combine and further tape study. But for now, here are the players who deserve a first-round grade on my board. (Players' overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.)

 

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Quarterback (3)​

Caleb Williams, USC (No. 1)​

Comp: Aaron Rodgers

The top overall player in the 2024 draft class, Williams combines excellent arm strength, mobility and field vision with a knack for making creative plays when defenses close in on the pocket. At 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, he is responsible for 93 touchdowns over the past two seasons at USC (72 passing, 21 rushing).

Sure, he will need to clean up the fumbles (eight in 2023) and get the ball out faster (3.14 seconds to throw on average), but the NFL-style playmaking and jaw-dropping passing ability has scouts calling him a rare prospect. What he's able to do on second-effort plays is impressive, and Williams would have been my top-rated quarterback in each of the past five draft classes. He looks like a lock to go No. 1 right now.

Jayden Daniels, LSU (No. 5)​

Comp: Lamar Jackson

The Heisman Trophy winner was the most improved player in college football in 2023. He entered the season with a Day 3 grade from NFL scouts but put together a 50-touchdown campaign (40 passing, 10 rushing) with just four interceptions. Daniels is not only the draft's best deep-ball thrower -- he had a 99.6 QBR targeting vertical routes -- he's also the most dangerous runner among the quarterbacks. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder had 3,812 passing yards and 1,134 rushing yards last season. With a strong pre-draft process, QB2 status is not out of the question.

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Drake Maye, North Carolina (No. 6)​

Comp: Justin Herbert

Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms used to tell me "size is a trait," and if you subscribe to that philosophy, you'll love the 6-foot-4, 230-pound redshirt sophomore from North Carolina. Maye is poised in the pocket but also mobile when necessary, and he has proven the past two seasons that he's capable of putting a team on his back with awesome arm talent and the toughness to pick up difficult yards as a runner. He has to work on footwork mechanics and cut down on interceptions -- he threw 16 in the past two years combined -- but there is a lot to like in his game. Maye threw for 3,608 yards and 24 touchdown passes last season.

 

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Running back (0)​

After seeing Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs drafted in the top 12 selections in 2023, it was fair to wonder if the running back position was seeing a comeback in draft priority. But we aren't quite there, at least not yet. The 2024 class doesn't feature a player ranked inside my top 65. There are solid backs capable of helping NFL teams immediately -- Jonathon Brooks (Texas) and Audric Estime (Notre Dame) have Day 2 grades -- but none have the right mix of traits to qualify here.

 

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Wide receiver (4)​

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (No. 2)​

Comp: A.J. Green

Harrison -- the son of NFL Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr. -- has rare traits, including great size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), body control, agility and flexibility, along with the fastest hands this side of Tyreek Hill. You don't often see big wide receivers show the flexibility and body control that Harrison does in order to get low to snag ground balls. And he's consistently making plays that show off an elite catch radius. He accumulated 2,474 receiving yards and 28 TDs over the past two seasons, despite defenses knowing the ball is going his way.

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Malik Nabers, LSU (No. 3)​

Comp: Stefon Diggs

He's the best after-the-catch receiver in the draft class, as the 6-foot, 200-pound Nabers averaged 18 yards per catch on 86 grabs last season, with 6.8 of those coming after the catch. He also turned in 14 touchdowns and 1,546 yards in a big breakout season. Nabers' start-stop quicks are high-end, and his field vision to find running lanes with the ball in his hands is special. I also love that over the past two seasons he had a drop rate of just 3.1%. Nabers is sure-handed, fast, explosive and ready to be an NFL WR1.

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Rome Odunze, Washington (No. 4)​

Comp: Ja'Marr Chase

Odunze is a physical, aggressive player when the ball is in his hands, and he sheds defenders with his 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame. Odunze combined for 167 catches, 2,785 yards and 20 touchdowns over the past two seasons while making a name for himself as a back-shoulder fade specialist. His toughness pre- and post-catch is fantastic, and his ability to consistently beat man coverage and dominate on 50-50 balls is why he gets the Chase comp.

Brian Thomas Jr., LSU (No. 16)​

Comp: Tee Higgins

Thomas burst onto the scene in 2023, leading the nation with 17 receiving touchdowns and showcasing a vertical ability at 6-foot-4 that will get him a true Round 1 grade from many teams. Thomas excels at stretching the field, and he uses his great agility and body control to attack passes. The way he adjusts to the ball in the air and speeds up to get into position is a WR1 quality. While raw as a route runner, Thomas' potential is sky high.

 

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Tight end (1)​

Brock Bowers, Georgia (No. 10)​

Comp: George Kittle

Bowers is not just a tight end; he's an offensive playmaker. The 6-foot-4, 240-pounder is rough and ready, and unlike so many smooth-moving tight ends of this day and age, he'll simply run over you. Bowers is physical but fast; he's as elusive as he is powerful. And it's why he scored 31 touchdowns over three seasons while being used as a tight end, H-back, slot receiver and sometimes tailback. Some may say he's undersized, but Bowers' effort and strength as a blocker are underrated. He can be a focal point for an NFL passing game from Day 1.

 

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Offensive tackle (3)​

Joe Alt, Notre Dame (No. 8)​

Comp: Andrew Thomas

The son of Chiefs' Hall of Famer John Alt, the younger Alt is a masterful technician with just two sacks allowed in his past 25 games. At 6-foot-8 and 315 pounds, he dominates defenders with his length and grip strength. Once he's locked on, defenders are best to just wait for the whistle. Alt doesn't have the flashy agility of other tackle prospects, but his power and technique are NFL-ready.

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Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State (No. 11)​

Comp: Terron Armstead

A long-armed, easy-moving left tackle, Fashanu is a massive man at 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds. The 20-year-old started 20 games over the past two seasons, allowing one sack in that time while being flagged only four times. He's powerful and agile, and he is still getting better with more reps. Fashanu has the tools to become a top-five NFL left tackle.

Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State (No. 12)​

Comp: Darnell Wright

As soon as Fuaga made his 2024 draft intentions known, he became a Round 1 player for me. His tape shows awesome power as a pure people-mover, but he's also agile and nimble in space at 6-foot-6 and 332 pounds. A college right tackle, Fuaga has the movement ability and poise to play either side in the pros. He's a plug-and-play right tackle with the ceiling of a top-five player at the position very early in his career.

 

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Interior offensive line (0)​

The 2023 draft saw one interior offensive lineman -- Peter Skoronski, who played tackle at Northwestern -- drafted in the first round, and the 2024 draft could be similar. Washington left tackle Troy Fautanu is projected to make a move inside and get drafted in the first 32 picks. But he does not have a first-round grade and ranks No. 23 overall on my board.

Center Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) is just outside my top 32 prospects (No. 34), while guards Cooper Beebe (Kansas State) and Zak Zinter (Michigan) are potential late-Round 2 or early-Round 3 prospects.

 

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Edge rusher (2)​

Dallas Turner, Alabama (No. 9)​

Comp: Josh Allen

Turner broke out in 2023 after replacing Will Anderson Jr. as the primary pass-rusher at Alabama. He led the Crimson Tide in sacks (10) and emerged as an elite force coming off the edge, adding two forced fumbles along the way. Turner has a slim build at 6-foot-4 and 242 pounds, which is where the comparison to Allen (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) comes from. Both are smooth, fast, long-armed pass-rushers. And like Allen, Turner has the upside and traits to develop into a special edge defender.

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Jared Verse, Florida State (No. 14)​

Comp: Trey Hendrickson

Verse dominated over two seasons at Florida State, collecting 18 sacks and 33.5 tackles for loss during that time. He's strong at the point of attack at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds and has the power to go toe-to-toe with NFL offensive tackles. A true 4-3 defensive end prospect with this type of power and pass-rush production is rare, which is why Verse slides in with a Round 1 grade.

 

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Defensive tackle (1)​

Byron Murphy II, Texas (No. 13)​

Comp: Justin Madubuike

Murphy was asked to play out of position at Texas as a 5-technique in the team's three-man front, but he still managed to find pass-rush production there with five sacks and 33 pressures. Murphy is stout at 6-foot-1 and 308 pounds, and his tape shows stunning first-step quickness and absolute power at the point of attack. Once he's able to shoot gaps in the NFL, he can be a game-changer.

 

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Linebacker (0)​

Texas A&M's Edgerrin Cooper is my top-ranked 'backer at No. 45 overall, while Michigan's Junior Colson also makes the top 50 at No. 46. But there's a good chance we don't see anyone at the position go on Day 1 in April.

 

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Cornerback (2)​

Terrion Arnold, Alabama (No. 7)​

Comp: Devon Witherspoon

Arnold was lights out in coverage last season, grabbing five interceptions and breaking up 12 passes. He's big at 6-foot and 195 pounds, and he plays with fire and tenacity at the line of scrimmage. While he's definitely physical, Arnold also has the quickness and speed to fly downfield with receivers. He's a tough, instinctive and all-around great cornerback prospect.

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Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri (No. 15)​

Comp: Tre'Davious White

Like Arnold, Rakestraw can knock a receiver off the line of scrimmage. He is super physical at 6-foot and 188 pounds but also eliminates receivers in coverage. He missed the Senior Bowl after undergoing surgery on a core muscle injury that he played through last season, so the combine will be huge for his stock. But after posting 71 tackles, 13 pass breakups and a pick over the past two seasons, Rakestraw has Round 1-caliber tape.

 

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Safety (0)​

The safety position might be the weakest of the 2024 draft. Tyler Nubin (Minnesota) and Kamren Kinchens (Miami) have top-50 rankings, but the group lacks top-end talent. However, there is good late-Day 2 and early-Day 3 value to be found here.