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2023 NFL mock draft: Early first-round predictions for 31 picks
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1. Houston Texans (2-13-1)
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Davis Mills experiment has run its course, and it's time for general manager Nick Caserio to find the face of this franchise. Young, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, has outstanding poise and accuracy and would give the Texans an immediate-impact quarterback with the potential to change the trajectory of the team. He was excellent against Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl, throwing five touchdown passes and completing 71.4% of his throws.
Caserio is still trying to collect talent following last offseason's trade of Deshaun Watson, and Houston does have another first-round pick. It'd be smart to immediately get Young some help on offense.
Biggest needs: QB, WR, EDGE, OL
2. Chicago Bears (3-13)
Jalen Carter, DT, GeorgiaThe Bears are still in the early stages of their roster reconstruction and lack marquee talent on both sides of the ball. General manager Ryan Poles should take the best prospect available. And since Chicago ranks last in the league in sacks (20) -- and their leader in sacks is safety Jaquan Brisker (four) -- improving along the defensive front should be at the top of this team's priorities list this offseason.
Carter would give the Bears a rock solid 3-technique tackle up the middle. Remember that last offseason, Poles' first big signing was adding tackle Larry Ogunjobi, whose deal was rescinded because of a failed physical. There's still a large hole in the middle of the defense.
Biggest needs: DL, OL, WR
3. Seattle Seahawks (via 4-12 DEN)
Will Anderson Jr., OLB, AlabamaSeattle is in need of massive improvements up front, and Anderson would help shore up a weakness. His ability to wreak havoc and force offenses off-schedule is an element the Seahawks don't have on their roster, and defensive tackle Poona Ford is a pending free agent. Anderson's versatility and pass-rushing ability would give the Seahawks an immediate starter off the edge who can rack up double-digit sacks each season. He has averaged roughly two tackles for loss and a sack per game over the past two years.
Biggest needs: DT, EDGE, C
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas TechArizona has several important offseason decisions ahead, particularly with general manager Steve Keim not around the team while on a health-related leave of absence. One thing is clear about this roster, though: It lacks young talent on both the offensive (43 sacks allowed, 23rd) and defensive (32 sacks, 27th) lines. With J.J. Watt retiring and Zach Allen set to become a free agent, the Cardinals have to find edge rushers who can start immediately.
After cruising to back-to-back seasons with 15 tackles for loss and seven sacks, Wilson would be an ideal fit in the Cards' three-man front, filling the void at end or outside linebacker. A towering presence at 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds, Wilson fits the physical profile the team has drafted early in previous years.
Biggest needs: OL, DL, CB
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1)
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio StateThe Colts have played musical chairs at quarterback since the abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck in 2019, which means they could be aggressive in this draft to trade up for the guy they want. In this scenario, the music officially stops, and the team secures its QB of the future in Stroud, a traditional pocket passer who has clean footwork and solid body mechanics. In an offense that already has building-block players like Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. and Quenton Nelson, Stroud would have early help as Indianapolis builds around his skill set.
He finished 2022 second in the FBS in Total QBR (88.8) and TD passes (41), whereas Indianapolis' 37.8 QBR and 15 TD throws are both bottom-six numbers.
Biggest needs: QB, OL, CB
6. Detroit Lions (via 5-11 LAR)
Bryan Bresee, DT, ClemsonThe Lions have quickly turned into one of the most exciting teams in the league, but their defense still requires a lot of work. Detroit allows 6.3 yards per play and 398.7 yards per game, both last in the NFL. The defensive front has promising young playmakers in Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and James Houston, but adding Bresee would give the Lions a stout run defender up the middle. He would fit into Detroit's scheme right away as a 1- or 3-technique, and I already see a pro-ready arsenal of pass-rush moves to complement his heavy hands against the run.
Biggest needs: DL, CB, LB
7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)
Will Levis, QB, KentuckyIt seems the Derek Carr era is over in Las Vegas, so coach Josh McDaniels will be searching for a new signal-caller. I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders look toward the veteran market for their solution, considering there will be a good deal of pressure in the building to win in 2023, but Levis' excellent physical traits could prove too intriguing to pass up. At 6-3 and 232 pounds, he has a huge arm and some power-rushing ability on QB keepers, but his turnover woes and poor decision making have been constant issues (23 interceptions over the past two seasons).
Biggest needs: QB, OL, DL
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
Myles Murphy, DE, ClemsonAtlanta will look to shore up both the offensive and defensive lines this spring, and Murphy would be a big part of that. He could play multiple spots in defensive coordinator Dean Pees' 3-4 scheme. At 6-5 and 275 pounds, Murphy is a pressure generator with a full arsenal of pass-rush moves. The Falcons have only gotten pressure on 20.6% of opponent dropbacks this season (last in the NFL), so I really like Murphy's fit alongside Grady Jarrett. Atlanta hasn't seen a player reach double-digit sacks in a season since Vic Beasley had 15.5 in 2016.
Biggest needs: DL, CB, OL
9. Carolina Panthers (6-10)
Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaMost scouts around the league agree that Richardson will be one of the toughest evaluations in this cycle. I could see him going in this range as the third or fourth quarterback off the board, but it also wouldn't be surprising to see him fall to Day 2. He only has 13 starts with middling production (24-15 TD-to-INT ratio) on his résumé, but the physical traits are eye-popping. His ceiling is really, really high.
A lot of questions loom in Carolina this offseason, and one of the biggest is the future outlook under center. Richardson will need patience, proper development and a franchise that avoids constant staff turnover. If the Panthers can maximize him, they can stabilize their QB position. Only Houston has a worse QBR over the past three years than Carolina (32.9).
Biggest needs: QB, CB, LB
10. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Peter Skoronski, OT, NorthwesternTennessee has needs at multiple spots along the offensive line, and Skoronski can play all five positions. Despite more than 2,200 snaps at left tackle over his career, there will be some debate about whether he projects better inside or outside. But regardless of where he ends up -- I think he's a tackle -- Skoronski's balance, toughness and physicality as a blocker fit well with the Titans' downhill scheme. Tennessee has allowed 45 sacks this season (tied for seventh-most) and can always use top-tier run-blockers to open things up for Derrick Henry.
Biggest needs: WR, OL, TE
11. Philadelphia Eagles (via 7-9 NO)
Jared Verse, DE, Florida StateThe Eagles rely on strength in the trenches, and with Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents, they will need help on defense. Verse is primarily a 5-technique, so he wouldn't be a true fix for the team's biggest need of a defensive tackle alongside Jordan Davis, but his combination of powerful hands, first-step explosion and finishing ability would help keep the NFL's best pass-rush unit strong amid the potential losses. Verse picked up nine sacks and 30 pressures this season for the Seminoles.
Biggest needs: DT, CB, S
12. Houston Texans (via 7-9 CLE)
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCUHouston has to continue to collect talent at key positions, but it has the flexibility to take a true best-player-available approach with its second first-round selection after landing quarterback Bryce Young atop the board. And I see the Texans adding a big pass-catcher for him before Day 1 is over. Pairing the 6-4 Johnston with Brandin Cooks, John Metchie III and Nico Collins would give them a much-improved receiver room, and Johnston's catch radius and big-play ability provides Houston with something that isn't currently on the roster. He has gone over 1,000 yards this season, while the Texans are still looking for someone to crack 600.
Biggest needs: QB, WR, EDGE, OL
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13. New York Jets (7-9)
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio StateGeneral manager Joe Douglas has shown an emphasis on drafting premium positions in Round 1, and we've already seen a lot of promise from the Jets' 2022 class. New York could now look to the offensive line, with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker returning from injury and George Fant set to hit free agency. Johnson is a potential early starter with experience at guard and tackle, and like Skoronski, he's a fit on the outside in the NFL -- which is where the Jets need an infusion of young talent. He has quick feet and strong hands both as a pass protector and run blocker.
Biggest needs: QB, OL, LB
14. Washington Commanders (7-8-1)
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn StateOffensive line could be the way to go here, but with the top cornerback still available, it's an easy choice for Washington. Porter has the potential to be an early high-end starter, and at 6-2 and 200 pounds, he's a long and rangy player who isn't afraid to get physical. His aggressiveness can be a gift and curse -- he can get caught out of position and grabby at times -- but his ball skills and savviness in getting hands in throwing windows (11 pass breakups) are standout traits. Pairing him with Benjamin St-Juste would give the Commanders a promising young duo on the perimeter.
Biggest needs: OL, CB, QB
15. New England Patriots (8-8)
Broderick Jones, OT, GeorgiaThe Pats' offensive tackle situation has been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, and Isaiah Wynn is scheduled to become a free agent in the offseason. After only starting four games before this season, Jones has solidified himself as one of the best offensive lineman prospects in this class, allowing zero sacks so far. He's only a redshirt sophomore, but I see Jones as the most mobile of the linemen available. His combination of foot quickness as a pass protector and strength as a run blocker have helped him unlock the next stage of his development, and he'd provide Bill Belichick with a young option to build around at left tackle.
Biggest needs: OT, WR, LB
