2022 NFL betting tips: How to make the most of player total props

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2022 NFL betting tips: How to make the most of player total props​

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The NFL is back, and that means plenty of betting opportunities every weekend. But it also offers the chance to get in on some prop bets before things get going at the start of the regular season.

Our analysts answer all of the questions surrounding some of the most popular NFL player total prop bets available now.

All odds from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.

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Caesars lists Tom Brady with the shortest odds to lead the NFL in passing yards (+700) and touchdowns (+500) in 2022 at 45 years old. Is there value in taking Brady or perhaps another top signal-caller like Justin Herbert (+750), Patrick Mahomes (+800) or Joe Burrow (+900)?​

Aaron Schatz: Despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, our KUBIAK fantasy football projections at Football Outsiders have Mahomes as the most likely league leader in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. The Chiefs' offensive scheme still favors the pass over the run, and Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league. (Unlike Brady or Aaron Rodgers, he has no chance of seeing an age-related decline.) The Chiefs have also done a better job of rebuilding their receiving corps than the Packers have after trading Davante Adams. There are other young guns like Herbert and Burrow who should put up big numbers, but Mahomes to lead the league in passing touchdowns (+600) and yards (+800) are good bets.



Jason Fitz: The loss of Hill is being undervalued, in my opinion. Defenses were forced to adapt to what he brought to that offense, creating better matchups for everyone, and without that, I don't trust the overall production for Mahomes to rise. Burrow (+900) is the easy pick here. While Derek Carr has Adams added to the fold, the Raiders' offensive line can't fully be trusted. Burrow is another year removed from his knee injury, has a great rapport and the benefit of continuity with offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and has a head coach who isn't afraid to abandon the run game to score points. When you combine that with the organization's massive investment in the offensive line this offseason, I think Burrow is in the best position to take the seat at the head of the table.

Joe Fortenbaugh: Carr at 10-1 has my attention. He finished in the top five in passing last season, and that was with tight end Darren Waller missing six games due to injury. Getting more from Waller, in addition to the acquisition of the game's best wide receiver in Adams, gives Carr the arsenal necessary to rack up more yardage than the rest of the field. Keep in mind the following: 13 of Carr's 17 games will take place either indoors or in a warm weather climate. Of the four games that do not, one is at Arrowhead Stadium in October. Not exactly the worst time of year to face the Chiefs on the road.

Eric Moody: There is value betting on Mahomes, who can still prosper in Kansas City even without Hill. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are capable of filling the void. Mahomes has averaged 39 pass attempts and 299.3 passing yards per game since 2020. In 2022, he will be one of the few quarterbacks who will attempt more than 600 passes. Over the past 10 seasons, the league's passing yards leader has averaged exactly 40 attempts per game. Mahomes would be my choice. There will be a lot of high-scoring games in the AFC West for the Chiefs.

Doug Kezirian: I actually do like this play on Brady, despite the loss of OL Ryan Jensen. With current rules so heavily protecting quarterbacks and his incredible resistance to Father Time, Brady is poised for another strong season. Brady led the NFL in passing attempts and yards last season, and I do not see any reason for him to decline. The position is such a mental exercise, and his experience and knowledge are true assets. He often butted heads with Bruce Arians -- and that is no longer a potential issue.

Anita Marks: I'm fading Brady this season. The loss of Jensen is huge and probably more significant than Chris Godwin missing the start of the season. Brady loves a clean interior pocket and struggles without one (52% completions when pressured). Gronk's retirement leaves Brady without his security blanket as well. Herbert is the play this season, and I agree with Joe -- there is value in Carr at 10-1 with Adams in Vegas.

Is there a QB yardage or TD over/under that jumps out to you?​

Erin Dolan: Trevor Lawrence under 3,900.5 passing yards (-115). Lawrence ended his rookie season with a passer rating of 71.9, 3,641 yards, 12 TDs and a league-worst 17 INTs. Lawrence will have better success under head coach Doug Pederson this season after the disaster of Urban Meyer, but I still see him going under this number. Look at the wide receiving corps of Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Evan Engram and Zay Jones. The Jags have not done anything this offseason that has absolutely wowed me. Lawrence played every game last season, so he has the experience, but I still think this is too high of a number for his sophomore season. I also like Kyler Murray over 4,100.5 passing yards. This seems very high for a player who has failed to hit over this in three seasons under center, but Murray has been an elite passer and has room to grow. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 8 against the Packers last season, but before that Murray was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. His completions went from 73% to 65% post-injury. The Cardinals were 7-0 pre-injury and went 2-5 after Murray's injury. Adding a player like Marquise Brown will help bump up Murray's numbers and elevate the deep ball threat. DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the season due to a failed PED test. While that could affect Murray's numbers in the short term, I expect a better performance this year as long as he stays healthy.

Seth Walder: Aaron Rodgers over 4,000.5 passing yards (-115). I know, I know; Davante Adams is gone. And the loss of Adams does matter. When I modeled out predicted yards per attempt, I saw that quarterbacks who had a significant change in their receiving talent from one year to the next did see some change in their efficiency. But you know what's much more important than receiving quality? The ability of the QB himself. Plus, the Packers have won 13 games in each of the last two seasons and have a win total of 11 this year. If we expect them to be in a few more close games this season, that ought to increase Rodgers' volume of attempts. And just for good measure, I think it's worth noting that a year ago, in a 13-win season, Rodgers surpassed 4,100 yards in only 16 games played.

Fitz: Marcus Mariota over 2,050.5 passing yards (-115). This looks like a steal to me here. Hear me out ... He was with Arthur Smith in Tennessee and knows this offense well. Both Mariota and Smith love tight ends in the offensive game plan, and the Falcons have superstar Kyle Pitts in that role. On top of that, Mariota's main limitation has been health. I don't see any reason he can't show people this year he is at the very least a capable starter, and with a number that low the bar to clear is easily passable.

Moody: Tua Tagovailoa over 3,750.5 passing yards (-115). As a moth to a flame, I am captivated by the over here. Tagovailoa will be surrounded by a plethora of offensive playmakers, including Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki and Chase Edmonds. Since 2010, there have been 29 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 of the NFL draft to have a pass attempt in their third season. Out of those quarterbacks, 25 out of 29 played more than 50% of their team's games, with 17 of the 25 exceeding 3,250 passing yards. In my opinion, Tagovailoa is well positioned to surpass 4,000 yards.

Marks: Daniel Jones over 3,650.5 passing yards (-125). The Giants have done everything possible to destroy Jones until now. He is finally working with a GM, head coach and OC that will put the right pieces around him and create a system that will allow him to thrive. Jones will be playing behind a better offensive line this season -- having both Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas as bookend tackles is tremendous -- and he has a very athletic skill position group if they can all stay healthy. Saquon Barkley is a rushing threat that will keep defenses honest, and Kadarius Toney, Wan'Dale Robinson and Kenny Golladay bring a lot of speed to the WR corps. The Giants have one of the easiest schedules this season, and I believe this number is very low based on past performances.

Kezirian: Baker Mayfield under 3,700.5 passing yards (-115). This makes no sense. First of all, he barely cleared this number in his first two seasons (albeit less than 17 games) but has not done so since. And that came on a Cleveland team with a strong offensive line and several good weapons. Now he heads to a messy and shaky offense in Carolina, and we aren't even positive he will start ahead of Sam Darnold. Even if he does, can the 6-foot-1 risk-taker stay healthy? Think about how much has to go right to cash the over and how easily the under can hit. The under is the play.

Marks: Trey Lance over 10.5 INTs (-135 at DraftKings). Lance is going to have to make a huge leap in his second season and first as the full-time starter. He comes from North Dakota State, competing against subpar competition, to start for a Kyle Shanahan offense in a much faster NFL. Shanahan's system requires a QB to process quickly in order to succeed. The 49ers' offensive line lost a few starters this season, and the interior will have issues without Alex Mack. Trey will face the fifth-most difficult schedule against passers.

Jonathan Taylor (+400) currently has the best odds at Caesars to lead the NFL in rushing yards once again, with Derrick Henry (+650) and Nick Chubb (+850) behind him. Do you see Henry or another back edging out Taylor? Or is there a dark horse candidate that bettors should bet on now?​

Dolan: The Titans have shown consistency over the years with their game plan. Give the ball to Henry and let him run. Henry won back-to-back rushing titles in 2019 and 2020. Before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8 last season, Henry was leading the league in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He averaged 117 rushing yards per game before his injury. Wow. I'd rather go with a player like Henry than the reigning champ in Taylor because the addition of Matt Ryan will upgrade the Colts passing attack. There is a better chance that Taylors' production will lessen compared to King Henry's production.

Schatz: Dalvin Cook is an intriguing dark horse candidate to lead the league in rushing yardage at +1000. We've never seen what Cook can do with a full season, but his chances for getting injured aren't really any bigger than those for Taylor or Henry. Cook had over 1,500 yards in just 14 games in 2020. We think the Vikings are going to win more games this year, which means more rushing opportunities for Cook late in games. We're projecting three backs with 1,400 rushing yards or more this year -- Taylor, Henry, and Cook -- and then a drop-off to the next tier of backs. Cook may be third in that group, but with the highest odds at +1000 there's good expected value on that bet.

Fitz: I'm all out on the Titans offense, even though I love King Henry. The WR position has been wildly downgraded, which will only make Henry's job tougher. Frankly, I like the under on Henry. I love Nick Chubb +850 here because a talented Browns team will need to rely on him to help given the unknowns of when or if Deshaun Watson will play. Even if Watson does play, we have no idea how much rust he will have. Chubb has proven he can carry the weight even if the quarterback position is questionable, and the Browns will need that more than ever this year.

Moody: The dark horse candidate who could unseat Taylor in 2022 is Joe Mixon. Since 2018, he's averaged 17.8 rushing attempts and 75.7 rushing attempts per game behind an inadequate offensive line. On paper, the Bengals' offensive line is one of the most improved units this offseason. I believe this will translate to the field. Because the Bengals have so many receiving playmakers and a great quarterback in Burrow, Mixon shouldn't see stacked boxes this year. In the last 20 years, the league's rushing leader has averaged 21.6 attempts and 108.7 yards per game. The average age of the rushing leader was 26. This will be Mixon's age 26 season.

Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson currently have the same odds to finish the season with the most receiving yards (+800). Which one offers bettors the best value to finish as the NFL's top wideout, or is someone else like Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) or Davante Adams (+1100) a better value play this year?​

Fulghum: Kupp provides better value than Jefferson at +800. One wide receiver is tied to Matthew Stafford. The other is tied to Kirk Cousins. Stafford has supported the two most prolific WR seasons in NFL history (Kupp in 2021, Calvin Johnson in 2012). Even though I'm bullish on Allen Robinson II earning his fair share of targets, I think it's safer to project Kupp for the higher target share of the two given the lack of depth the Rams now have at WR while they wait on the potential return of Odell Beckham Jr. Sean McVay is calling plays for Kupp, while a McVay knock-off (Kevin O'Connell) calls plays for Jefferson. Don't overthink this. Jefferson is fantastic ... but the Kupp-Stafford connection is unrivaled in today's NFL.

Moody: CeeDee Lamb (+1400) is a better value play this season. With Amari Cooper now with the Browns and Cedrick Wilson with the Dolphins, Lamb should be a target monster for the Cowboys in 2022. James Washington will be out for 6-10 weeks with a foot fracture, increasing Lamb's workload. In addition, the Cowboys are waiting for Michael Gallup to return from an ACL injury. It is likely that Lamb will set career highs in snaps played and targets. After ranking fifth in pass attempts per game last season, Dallas should continue to rely heavily on its passing game with Dak Prescott at quarterback.

Is there a RB or WR yardage or TD over/under that jumps out to you?​

Fulghum: Julio Jones over 550.5 receiving yards (-115). Jones may not be the player he once was (he's still a tremendous athlete at age 33), but what matters most is that he is now tethered to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers passing game. Brady led the league in completions, attempts and yards last season. He supported four pass-catchers that averaged more than 60 yards per game (Antonio Brown included, although he quit the team after just seven games). The Bucs gave Jones $6 million on his one-year deal, so he's not coming there to ride the pine. Don't let his age, last season in Tennessee or the OL issues concern you. This number is too low because Brady is his QB.

Fortenbaugh: DeVonta Smith under 62.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings). He played in all 17 games last season and led the Eagles in targets with 104, which ranked 36th in the NFL. All of that resulted in just 64 receptions. Now, throw in the addition of $100 million wide receiver A.J. Brown and remember the fact that Philadelphia throws the ball less than any team in the NFL (494 attempts in 2021, 32nd in the NFL) and ask yourself whether Smith's receptions will increase or decrease in 2022. I'm betting that number decreases.

Dolan: Mark Andrews Over 84.5 regular season receptions (-140). He crushed this number with 107 receptions last season and led all tight ends in receiving yards (1,361) as well. Andrews will likely continue to be the Ravens' top receiving threat with Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals. Andrews will get a lot of attention from opposing defenses, but he could have another awesome season when paired with a healthy Lamar Jackson. I believe the Ravens will get back to their run-heavy offense now that the team is healthier, so taking Rashod Bateman under 70.5 receptions (-110) is worth a look. Bateman had 46 receptions for 515 yards in 12 games played in his rookie season and is now the Raven's No. 1 wideout. The Ravens were the seventh-most pass-heavy team last season, but that was due to team injuries. The wide receiver corps is not good, and Baltimore ranks last at spending at this position this season.

Dolan: Christian McCaffrey under 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-130). You can't ignore the fact that he has been hurt over the last two seasons, playing a total of 10 games over that span. In the five seasons that he has played in the league, he had over 8.5 rushing touchdowns once, back in 2019. The Panthers are always having turnover at the quarterback position. Assuming Mayfield is under center, given he has a much better passer rating than Darnold, I would look at the WR props like D.J. Moore Over 1,100.5 receiving yards (-115) rather than McCaffrey.

Walder: Christian Kirk under 850.5 receiving yards (-115). Kirk is moving from an extremely accurate quarterback in Murray to a less accurate one in Lawrence. Murray recorded a completion percentage over expectation of +4% last season to Lawrence's -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats, so I would expect Kirk's catch rate to come down. He's also just in a lower yardage environment overall; the Jaguars recorded over 800 fewer passing yards than the Cardinals last season. The Jags should improve, maybe significantly, but that Lawrence's passing yards total for 2022 is lower than Murray's (and I think Lawrence's is a bit high) indicates we can expect fewer yards to go around in Jacksonville.

Schatz: Gabriel Davis under 875.5 receiving yards (-115). Nobody other than Stefon Diggs went over 700 receiving yards for the Bills last season. Cole Beasley went over that number in 2020 but was playing a very different role than the one Davis will play. Diggs is still the top target, and the Bills still love to feed the ball to slot receivers (Jamison Crowder and/or Isaiah McKenzie). Dawson Knox will get his yardage as well. Davis is in line for a nice season, but I think everyone is still a little drunk on that one big playoff performance last January.

Fitz: Josh Jacobs under 725.5 rushing yards (-115). Josh McDaniels has made it clear the Raiders will be a running back by committee, and the team made it clear Jacobs isn't their future not only by not picking up his fifth-year option, but also by drafting Zamir White out of Georgia in the fourth round. In their opening preseason game, Jacobs played the first quarter (rare for a sure-fire starter) and White saw the field even though he missed several practices with injury issues. If the running back position is going to look like Voltron this season, there's no indication Jacobs will be the starring component of their combined all powerful robot. Especially with so many tempting weapons in the passing game, Jacobs seems likely to have a reduced role.

Moody: Mike Evans over 1,050.5 receiving yards (-115). The passing game has been the calling card for the Buccaneers since Brady arrived in 2020. In the past two seasons, the Buccaneers finished 10th and first in passing play percentage. Evans has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in every season of his career. With Brady under center, he is averaging 72.0 receptions, 1,020 receiving yards and 13.5 touchdowns per season.

Also, Javonte Williams under 925.5 (-115) rushing yards jumps out to me. Due to his ability to break tackles, which resulted in a ton of highlight reel runs, he became a star last season. The Broncos did re-sign Melvin Gordon this offseason, and offensive coordinator Justin Outten recently stated publicly that both running backs would be pitch counted. Gordon ranks fourth among active running backs with 6,144 career rushing yards behind Mark Ingram, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry. He had two 900-yard rushing seasons in his first two seasons with the Broncos even though he split carries with Phillip Lindsay in 2020 and Williams in 2021. It is likely that this trend will continue in 2022, which does not bode well for Williams.

Marks: AJ Dillon over 775.5 rushing yards (-115). Dillon had 221 touches last season and rushed for over 800 yards. This season I expect an even heavier dose of Dillon in the rushing game, especially without Adams on the roster. Dillon is one of the league's best pure rushers, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 3.3 yards after contact. Aaron Jones is used more in the passing game, so I expect Dillon to be a huge part of the Packers rushing attack.

Marks: Allen Lazard over 5.5 TDs (-115). There's no Adams this season for the Packers, so who is Rodgers going to look for? I'll roll with his new favorite target being Allen Lazard. When Adams was inactive last season, Lazard got 20% of the target share. He scored eight TDs last season, not being the No. 1 option. With a lot of new faces on the WR corps, Lazard comes in with a better understanding of the game plan.

Marks: Hunter Renfrow over 775.5 receiving yards (-115) and over 5.5 TDs (-115). Renfrow just received a two-year, $32 million extension - and for good reason. He is one of the best route runners and is masterful against one-on-one coverage. With the addition of Adams, Renfrow will be seeing a lot of single coverage this season. He saw 128 targets last season, played 16 games, finished with over 1,000 receiving yards and had nine TDs. Josh McDaniels loves slot receivers, so expect Renfrow to have a huge season.

Zach Wilson currently has more bets to lead the NFL in passing yards at Caesars Sportsbook than Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. What are your thoughts on his ceiling this year compared to the other second-year starting QBs?​

Schatz: I guess people are counting on Wilson throwing a lot because the Jets are losing a lot of games? Actually, Football Outsiders is projecting a significant improvement from the Jets' defense this year. Add that to Breece Hall now as the RB1 and maybe the Jets will be throwing less. If I have to bet on a second-year starting quarterback to lead the league in passing yards, I'll put my money on Trevor Lawrence at +3000. We know that Doug Pederson likes to throw the ball and has low run/pass ratios, and we know that Pederson significantly improves the whole Jaguars situation compared to the Urban Meyer fiasco. Lawrence was regarded by everyone as the best prospect in last year's draft class, probably the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. He's the best bet for a second-year explosion.

Fortenbaugh: I'd rather bet online slot machines than wager on Wilson to lead the NFL in passing.


Fitz: The Jets have a brutal schedule, so maybe the thinking is garbage yardage? The Jets have a real shot at being the worst team in the NFL. If the team implodes through their brutal schedule, I'm not comfortable predicting anything amazing for a quarterback who still hasn't shown he can be great in this league. It's more likely to me that we are talking about prop bets regarding who the Jets will draft at quarterback this April than it is that Wilson would lead the NFL in passing yards.

Moody: Wilson has been surrounded with offensive playmakers in the offseason to complement Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Michael Carter. Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have all been added to New York's roster. Wilson has all of the tools to make a giant leap in his second season. He bulked up during the offseason with a new diet and workout regime. While Wilson should improve on his rookie season, Lawrence will finish ahead of him in terms of passing yards.

Marks: The jury is still out for me in regard to Wilson. He ranked at the bottom of most QB categories last season, and I don't see him making that significant of a leap in 2022. He just lost right tackle Mikah Becton for the majority of the season, the roster is filled with a lot of rookies and or second-year starters, and the Jets have one of the most difficult schedules this season. The second-year QB I'm backing this season is Mac Jones. He helped engineer 10 wins for the Patriots last season and led all rookie QBs in completion percentage last season (68%). When Jones' offensive line did not give up one sack, he led the NFL in scoring drives at a 52% rate (the average is 42%).