Playoff best bets: Dolphins-Chiefs one of coldest games in NFL history
LV Review Journal Subsctiption
1/13/24
The Dolphins have lost their last 10 games when the temperature is 40 degrees or lower at kickoff.
Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay expects that losing streak to reach 11 after Miami plays at Kansas City on Saturday night in what is expected to be one of the coldest games in NFL history.
The weather forecast (at weather.com) calls for a high of 6 degrees and a low of 11 below zero, with winds up to 20 mph and a wind chill of 25 below.
That’s one reason why the Chiefs have shot up from 3½- to 4½-point favorites, though the consensus total is holding steady at 44 after the South Point sportsbook took sharp bets on over 43 and under 44½.
The SuperBook also took sharp money on the over, to Kornegay’s surprise.
“In my mind, there’s only two weather conditions that we really look for. One is extreme wind, 25 mph or higher,” he said. “The other is extreme cold — and we are talking single-digit cold — and that’s exactly what they’re going to have in Kansas City.
“I’m really surprised the total hasn’t moved. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lower number come game time.”
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said he took sharp money on the Chiefs -3, -3½, -4 and -4½.
Kornegay, who won the Review-Journal NFL Challenge contest with a 59-25-6 ATS record (70.2 percent), also likes Kansas City to cover in a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 win over the Dolphins in Week 9 in Germany.
“Miami is really beat up offensively and defensively, and the Chiefs have a very capable defense,” Kornegay said. “The Chiefs haven’t been impressive, by any means, but the Dolphins have injuries everywhere.”
The South Point took sharp money on the Browns as 2½-point road favorites over the Texans on Saturday. Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw wagered on Cleveland -2½, though the consensus line has dipped to 2.
The quarterback matchup pits Houston rookie C.J. Stroud against Browns veteran Joe Flacco.
“I’m just playing the team that has the better defense,” Whitelaw said. “It’s sort of a play against the rookie quarterback, and Flacco has experience. It just seems like they’re the better team.”
The South Point and SuperBook also took sharp bets on the Rams as 3½-point road underdogs over the Lions on Sunday in a matchup of former Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford and former Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff.
The line is now 3, and Kornegay and SixthSenseSports.com handicapper Scott Kellen — who took second in the RJ Challenge with a 49-36-5 ATS mark — like Los Angeles.
The Rams have won seven of their last eight games, with their lone loss a 37-31 overtime setback at Baltimore. Kellen’s best bets are on Los Angeles to cover as a 3-point underdog and to go over its team total of 24½ points.
“The Rams have played eight games this year when they have had Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. They’ve averaged 6.3 yards per play in those games, compared to 5.6 yards per play for all games played,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “They’ve scored 26 or more points in all but one of those eight games. Now they get a Lions defense that is well below average and allowed the best offenses they faced this season to score almost 32 points per game.”
Weather also is expected to impact Sunday’s Bills-Steelers game in Buffalo, where snow and wind up to 35 mph is expected.
The total has plummeted from 40½ to 34 amid sharp action at South Point on the under, and sharp money on Pittsburgh has caused the line to dip from Bills -10 to -9½.
Sharp bets on the Packers as road underdogs at Dallas on Sunday have caused the line to drop from 8 to 7. Sharp money on the Eagles has pushed them from 2-point to 3-point road favorites over the Buccaneers on Monday.
