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Expert picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night and Bellator Champions Series
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALRising welterweight contender Sean Brady takes on former title challenger Gilbert Burns in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Brady, No. 9 in ESPN's welterweight rankings, enters the fight following a third-round submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in his last fight. Burns, ESPN's No. 6 welterweight, has lost back-to-back fights to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, respectively.
Also, on Saturday, Bellator returns after nearly three months without action. The promotion will host the next installment of the Bellator Champions Series in San Diego, headlined by lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov putting his title on the line against Alexander Shabliy.
Brett Okamoto spoke to ESPN analyst and veteran MMA coach Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insight and analysis on both main events for this weekend and other intriguing bets he likes on the cards.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Din Thomas, ESPN analyst and veteran MMA coach
How Burns wins: It comes down to his power. I can't imagine Gilbert out-grappling Sean at this level, but if he can find a big shot, it might be lights out. Even if it's not a knockout, it could change the course of the fight. Gilbert just has that switch. He's so good at finding that shot because he's a powerful athlete. He also has an underrated kicking game. I remember thinking that when I cornered against him with Tyron Woodley. His kicks are more powerful than people think.How Brady wins: It comes down to Sean's ability to maintain a high level of performance throughout a fight that's fought at a high pace. He's very good at keeping that pace and staying strong the entire fight, and if he does, he'll eventually find a weakness in Gilbert's game . That level of pace just creates openings, and we've seen Gilbert tends to get a little wild when there's a lot of action. You start to expend more energy when you get wild. I think that pace will work in Sean's favor.
X factor: Sean's striking. It's underestimated at times and it could surprise Gilbert.
Prediction: *Thomas will be working Brady's corner, in addition to the UFC analyst role*
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.Parker: Burns to win (+150). Brady entering this fight as a near 2-to-1 favorite is shocking. Burns is the better striker on the feet, but the fight will be competitive when or if it hits the ground. Brady is a top-heavy wrestler and grappler, but Burns is one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world. Often, when two grapplers fight, it becomes a kickboxing match for five rounds. If that happens here, lean toward the underdog in Burns. I don't see Brady subbing him or out-striking him. The only way Brady wins is by outwrestling Burns for five rounds, but I wouldn't put my money on it.
Bellator lightweight title: Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Alexandr Shabliy
How Nurmagomedov wins: Usman will have to rely on his wrestling, which they tend to do. That Dagestani style, use it. He has to go out there, keep Alexandr on his toes, and then wrestle and control him. Alexandr is slippery, but if Usman can get him down and control him, he should go ahead and win in that fashion.How Shabliy wins: He's really slick on his feet, disciplined, sharp and precise. But against Dagestani wrestling -- you can't out-work these guys, you can't tire them out, but you can disrupt them by hurting them. Alexandr can do that. He needs to hit Usman with some body shots that hurt him, which will deter him from being full throttle.
X Factor: Usman's movement on the feet. If he's moving well and mixing his striking with his wrestling, it will be a problem for Shabliy. Anytime someone is threatening with strikes and takedowns, it gives them an advantage on the feet. If his movement is slick and constant, he might even hurt Shabliy on the feet.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov. Everyone fights the Dagestani style in the same way, and no one has figured it out yet. Until someone does, you can't change the result.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.Parker: Nurmagomedov to win; take the over on total rounds. At 17-0, Nurmagomedov looks to extend his undefeated streak against opponent Shabliy. Shabliy has been on a tear recently, defeating Brent Primus, Tofiq Musayev, and Patricky "Pitbull" Freire. Shabliy is a technical striker with exceptional grappling. However, Nurmagomedov is just a different level of opponent for him. Look for Nurmagomedov to impose his will and turn this into a five-round wrestling contest to avoid the striking of Shabliy. Use Nurmagomedov as the anchor of your parlay or take the over as I expect this fight to go bell to bell.
Parker's best bets for the rest of the weekend
Women's flyweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
Over 2.5 rounds (-185); Silva to win by decision. Andrade has looked great in her last two fights, picking up back-to-back wins, however, I don't think she gets the win here. On the feet, Andrade carries power, but Silva is the better striker with higher volume and accuracy. If it were to hit the ground, Silva has seven submissions to her name and she has the jiu-jitsu skills to fend off Andrade.I have two plays for this fight. Over 2.5 rounds is sitting at -185 and I love that spot. Silva's last two fights against high-level competition went the distance. Andrade's last fight against Marina Rodriguez also reached the final bell. I think Silva keeps this on the feet and utilizes her distance striking, leading to my second play, Silva winning by decision.
Men's flyweight: Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden
Under 2.5 rounds. A short notice for Durden? Not a problem. Both fighters continually press forward looking for the finish. Schnell is as tough as they come, but his chin just doesn't hold up and I don't expect this time to be any different. With Durden coming off a KO loss, he might be hesitant to stand and bang, so I expect him to utilize his wrestling a bit. Once he gets top control on the mat, look for Durden to finish the fight.Lightweight: Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Ashmouz to win (Even). Grab your popcorn for this one. Peek vs. Ashmouz will be action-packed and a likely frontrunner for the fight of the night. Both guys are extremely durable and swing for the knockout often. However, Ashmouz is flying under the radar against Peek, who is less technical. Peek will look to throw sledgehammer-like punches, but he is not overly accurate and if he doesn't KO his opponent first, he usually loses.I have two plays for this fight. Over 2.5 rounds is sitting at -185 and I love that spot. Silva's last two fights against high-level competition went the distance. Andrade's last fight against Marina Rodriguez also reached the final bell. I think Silva keeps this on the feet and utilizes her distance striking, leading to my second play, Silva winning by decision.
