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Expert picks and best bets for UFC 305 and 2024 PFL Playoffs
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis looks to settle his differences with Israel Adesanya in the main event at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+).
Du Plessis, unranked in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, beat Sean Strickland by split decision at UFC 297 in January to claim the belt. Du Plessis is undefeated inside the Octagon and has finished five of his seven UFC opponents. Adesanya, No. 7 in ESPN's P4P rankings, lost the title to Strickland via unanimous decision at UFC 293 in September 2023.
In the co-main event, men's flyweights Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg go head-to-head to see who will take the next step toward a shot at the 125-pound title. Both fighters enter the bout coming off a loss. Erceg was unsuccessful in a challenge of Alexandre Pantoja for the belt at UFC 301 in May. Kara-France has lost back-to-back fights to Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi, respectively.
On Friday, the 2024 PFL Playoffs return with the light heavyweight and lightweight semifinals at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. Former 205-pound champ Impa Kasam, nganay takes on Josh Silveira in a rematch of last season's championship bout in the main event. In the co-main event, 2022 PFL light heavyweight champ Rob Wilkinson takes on Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight title fight: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach
How du Plessis wins: Du Plessis has to do what he does best: make the fight ugly. Get in there and be aggressive, get in Adesanya's face. Du Plessis comes forward and hits like a truck. He has legitimate power. If he can get through Adesanya's counters and feints, he could win by knockout. But when he does blitz, there will be openings for Adesanya to land. If Du Plessis can get him on the ground and grind the fight out, that's where he can be most successful. Against Strickland, when Adesanya was faced with awkward and ugly pressure, he didn't look good. Du Plessis has some of that weird style as well, and he won't be afraid of him.How Adesanya wins: If Adesanya is in peak form, coming back and showing that the loss to Strickland was an off night, then I don't think it matters who's fighting him. I don't know if anyone can beat Adesanya when he's at his best, other than Alex Pereira. Adesanya's striking is elite and he's hard to take down. He's proven at 185 pounds that he's not easy to hold down.
If Adesanya gets his counterstriking going, he's a sniper, and du Plessis has holes to get caught. We will see that check hook that Adesanya likes to throw. He will move laterally, but that can lead to him getting caught. He shouldn't plant his feet against Du Plessis though, because Du Plessis will try to bulldoze him and possibly put him on the ground. Surely, wrestling will be some part of Du Plessis' game plan.
X factor: Is Adesanya back in form? If he is, there's no question what will happen in this fight. But if he's not and he's on a slow decline, this will be a hard night for him.
Prediction: I'm a fan of Du Plessis, but I don't think Adesanya is done yet. His striking ability and counters are going to be too much. I don't know that he knocks Du Plessis out, but I think we see an Adesanya win.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPNBET.
Kuhn: Adesanya to win (-115). When we first examined this matchup in our title matchup projections, it showed that Du Plessis has a slightly unfavorable matchup against Adesanya. The odds opened tight, but have since edged in favor of Adesanya, which I agree with.
If you had to pick a vulnerable opponent for Adesanya, it would likely be a smaller fighter with poor striking defense, who might also be overeager in advancing with high-volume striking. That description fits Du Plessis well.
Adesanya's normal aversion to the ground game remains necessary here, but the takedown and grappling metrics of Du Plessis aren't much above average. I don't hope for much more price movement than we've already seen, but I would still back Adesanya to regain his belt.
Parker: Adesanya to win. This could be Adesanya's last chance at UFC gold. Stylistically, it's hard to pass on Adesanya at these odds. He will be the better striker, has plenty of five-round experience over Du Plessis, and Adesanya will be fighting in his backyard in Australia. But can he handle the pressure of Du Plessis and keep the fight standing? My answer is yes. As much as Du Plessis has the advantage if this fight hits the mat, I think his ego will prevent him from taking the path to least resistance. If Du Plessis chooses to stand and kickbox against Adesnaya, give me Adesanya every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC 305 card
Men's flyweight: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg to win (-160). Kara-France is returning after a 14-month layoff due to injury. Kara-France is a good kickboxer with decent power, but that's about it. Erceg, however, may have been one poor takedown attempt away from winning the flyweight title over Pantoja in his last appearance. On the feet, Erceg can match Kara-France's striking, but if he decides to take it to the ground, he will have a big advantage there. Give me Erceg to take this one probably by decision, but taking the moneyline on Erceg still has value.Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
Gamrot to win (-350). Gamrot draws attention having spent more of his Octagon time in ground control than any fighter on the card. Yet, his strong ground metrics could be deflated, given the gauntlet elite grapplers he has faced and defeated.The reach of Hooker amplifies his strength in long-range striking, and his takedown defense is above average. These create some opportunities for extended time on the feet, but expect Gamrot to get the fight down to the mat eventually. This matchup also favors the over 2.5 rounds, as Hooker is seasoned enough to avoid obvious submissions, which also aren't Gamrot's focus on the mat.
Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Rozenstruik to win (+180). Despite nearly four hours of combined Octagon time, neither fighter has ever landed a takedown. So we're likely to see two heavyweights trade leather until one falls. While Tuivasa is just 31 years old, his porous striking defense has arguably led him to a premature point of diminished resiliency. His head strike defense is the worst of any fighter on the card, and he has absorbed almost as many knockdowns as he's dished out.Rozenstruik is older, however that's been less of an issue for heavyweights. He'll be the rangier distance striker, with more power than Tuivasa. On the end of his long reach, Rozenstruik will also have better defense. Both men take a measured pace, so expect some feeling out, but once the leather flies Tuivasa is more likely to be hurt first.
Women's flyweight: Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
Santos to win (-155). O'Neill is on a two-fight losing streak since suffering a knee injury. She will have to dig deep to avoid making it three in a row as she takes on a top prospect. On the feet, O'Neill may have a slight advantage from a technical standpoint, but Santos easily matches her power and speed. The biggest disparity between the two fighters is on the ground. We have seen O'Neill be outgrappled and submitted recently, which does not fare well for her in this matchup. Give me Santos, who continues to improve with each fight. And if she chooses to take this fight to the floor, she can get a finish over O'Neill.Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
Jenkins to win by KO/TKO. Jenkins will be the largest betting favorite heading into UFC 305. He is a well-rounded fighter, but is known for his vicious leg kicks. He just has to watch out for Burns in the first round. Burns will come out swinging and try to implement his world-class jiu-jitsu. But once that fails, his gas runs out and he seems to quit. Look for Jenkins to establish those calf kicks early and get Burns out of there before the end of the third round.Parker's PFL playoffs best bets
Light heavyweight: Impa Kasanganay vs. Josh Silveira
Kasanganay to win by decision. Kasanganay had a stronger regular season, with two TKO finishes to clinch the No. 1 seed. Silveira's route was much different. In his first fight, Silveira won quickly in the first round due to injury, then lost to Wilkinson in his second fight. Both these men know each other well and the fight should be competitive. Expect the same result as last year -- Kasanganay winning by decision. He is the better striker and can match Silveira's grappling skills. Barring an injury or flash knockout, Kasanganay gets the win.
