Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,823
Expert picks and best bets: Where's the value at UFC 303 and PFL?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira steps up for the promotion on short notice once again as he puts his title on the line against former champ Jiří Procházka in the main event at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Pereira, ranked No. 3 in ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, is coming off a first-round knockout win over Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300 in April. Five of his seven UFC wins have come by knockout. Procházka, ranked No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight following a second-round TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300. Both fighters stepped up to take a short-notice fight against each other at UFC 295 last November after the initial main event between heavyweight champ Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic was postponed. The fight between Pereira and Procházka was booked after Conor McGregor backed out of his fight with Michael Chandler due to a broken toe.
The PFL is also in action this weekend, as the promotion hosts its final event of the 2024 PFL regular season featuring the welterweights and featherweights on Friday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
In the main event, 2022 featherweight champion Brendan Loughnane looks to solidify his place in the 2024 PFL playoffs as he takes on Justin Gonzales in the main event.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC light heavyweight and ESPN analyst Anthony Smith to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insight and analysis on the UFC main event and other intriguing bets they like on this weekend's fight cards.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka
Anthony Smith, UFC light heavyweight and ESPN analyst
Tale Of The Tape
| PEREIRA | PROCHÁZKA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37.0 | 31.7 |
| Height | 76.0 | 75.0 |
| Reach | 79.0 | 80.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | April 13, 2024 | April 13, 2024 |
How Procházka wins: He's got to create some chaos. He has to play a dangerous game. Pereira can be hurt and Procházka has the power to hurt him. Can Procházka win? One hundred percent. He's got the power to knock out anybody, he's a wild man, he's got the right mentality. But he has to be chaotic and he has to get Alex square. If Pereira is in his stance and just stalking him down, he can knock out a lot of guys like that. But if you get him turning, turning, turning, trying to find you, you can catch him in one of those transitions.
X Factor: Familiarity. They just fought in November. A lot of times, it's a slow burn at first between two dangerous guys, but because they've felt what each other has, this fight gets going faster. And that benefits Pereira because he's felt the wrestling and the power. There are no surprises anymore.
Prediction: Pereira by knockout, probably around the second round again.
Betting analysis
UFC 303: Pereira Vs. Procházka
| Standup striking offense | Pereira | Procházka |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 4:1 | 2:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Head jab accuracy | 47% | 44% |
| Head power accuracy | 45% | 49% |
| Standup strike ratio (attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per minutes standing/clinch | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Takedown accuracy | 100% | 60% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 30 | 19 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 68% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 5% | 46% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Lean Pereira to win (-135). In a rematch, there are always questions about which fighter will make better adjustments. But based purely on performance metrics, considering the statistics have not changed much, my lean on this matchup is the same as the first time. And yet that doesn't mean the outcome won't differ.
Both men are highly accurate power strikers but show below-average striking defense. Procházka, in particular, fights a little fast and loose, with his power striking defense a big liability. Periera is more seasoned and technical during a firefight. But will Procházka wade into a striking duel again, knowing how things went the first time?
The wild card is Procházka's ground game. He's successfully used grappling to win rounds in title fights, a strategy that certainly puts Pereira in a bad spot. However, Pereira has faced that plan before and his takedown defense holds up enough to create opportunities on the feet. Periera's advancing age prevents a stronger lean, but Periera is a deserving favorite. The more time it spends on the feet, the more likely a TKO finish.
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. In their first fight, Procházka was doing a great job pressuring with volume strikes and taking the fight to the ground where he had the advantage. Unfortunately, all it takes is one misfire and a left hook from Pereira to close the show. Like the first fight, I believe the rematch is going over 1.5 rounds. I expect Procházka to pressure Pereira early to avoid his calf kicks and lean into his wrestling again. As long as Procházka can avoid that devastating left hook, I can see this fight going into the later rounds where I would lean Procházka to win the fight.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Parker: Lopes to win (-150). Since his UFC debut loss to Movsar Evloev, Lopes has been on an absolute tear winning three fights in a row by first-round finish. With all the momentum on Lopes' side, he takes on Ortega, a former title challenger, hoping to get one step closer to a title shot. In Ortega's last fight against Yair Rodriguez, he was dropped quickly and had to go into survival mode. However, he was able to withstand the storm and get the submission win in Round 3. If Ortega gets dropped by Lopes, I doubt he will be able to make that same comeback. Unlike Rodriguez, Lopes can match Ortega in his jiu-jitsu, and Lopes is the better striker with serious knockout power. I believe Lopes is the real deal and a future champ.Kuhn: Ortega to win (+125). For a potential upset, consider one of the matchups added to the card after the cancelation of McGregor vs. Chandler. The two have a combined 19 submission attempts in their UFC careers. That's more than any pairing on the card, even matchups with much more combined Octagon time.
Lopes' Octagon time reveals most of the ground time was spent on his back, which could be a problem against a seasoned grappler like Ortega. Lopes has shown power on the feet, with impressive early victories. But if Ortega weathers that early storm, his experience and submission skills could be the differentiators in this matchup. Ortega has the experience to know how not to get into an uphill striking battle with a more accurate opponent. Ortega at plus money is worth the play assuming he's still durable at this age.
Strawweight: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
Kuhn: Robertson to win (-185). With just one win in five years, this could be a farewell appearance for Waterson-Gomez, who is riding a four-fight skid. Despite her nickname "The Karate Hottie" many of her best moments in the Octagon came via grappling. But facing Robertson is a much tougher matchup than the less experienced grapplers Waterson-Gomez faced in her early UFC career.Robertson is primarily a wrestler. She spends 41% of all fight time controlling opponents on the mat, by far the most of any fighter on the card. Waterson-Gomez has above-average takedown defense, but Robertson will keep attempting them until she finally lands one. And once she gets opponents to the ground, she averages over two minutes of control time per takedown landed. Look for Robertson to leverage her wrestling to either a decision or a late submission win.
Welterweight: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael "Venom" Page
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds (-210). This exciting fight could have title contender implications. Page is coming off his UFC debut, where he won a not-so-exciting decision over Kevin Holland. For Garry, three of his last four wins have come by decision and I see a similar result against Page. As fun as Page has been in the past with some great highlight knockouts, once he started fighting top-tier opponents, those finishes started becoming decisions. I lean toward Garry here as he has more ways to win, but the safer play is the over 2.5 rounds.Middleweight: Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Parker: Pyfer to win (-300). This is a great matchup for Pyfer, who is coming off his first UFC loss, as Barriault doesn't provide much of a threat besides having great cardio. Look for Pyfer to establish his striking early and land a big shot to put Barriault away.Parker's best bets for 2024 PFL regular season: Welterweights and Featherweights
Featherweight: Brendan Loughnane vs. Justin Gonzales
Loughnane to win by KO/TKO or decision; take moneyline for parlay (-600). Loughnane returned to form after missing the 2023 PFL playoffs with a first-round knockout of Pedro Carvalho to open the season. In a win-and-get-in scenario for Loughnane, he will look to avoid Gonzales' wrestling and put his striking on display to get it done. Can Loughnane get the finish? It's possible, but he knows the format well and if it only takes a win to get in, he will probably play it safe to do just that to stay healthy for the playoffs.Welterweight: Magomed Umalatov vs. Brennan Ward
Umalatov to win inside the distance. Umalatov might be the favorite to win this division this season if he can stay healthy enough to fight in the playoffs. He is taking on a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter in Ward who will need a first-round finish to have a chance at the playoffs. Look for Umalatov to avoid the early onslaught of Ward and take the fight to the ground, where he will likely get the finish shortly after. Umalatov has a lot of power in his hands, but in this fight, he knows his advantage will be on the ground and a submission victory should be available to him.
