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UFC expert picks, best bets: Will Perez win on short notice?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAfter a rare off week, the UFC returns to action this weekend with a card on Saturday that will be headlined by men's flyweight contenders Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Nicolau (19-4-1) has won four of his past five fights. He is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Brandon Royval. Perez (24-8) is currently riding a three-fight losing streak, and a win on Saturday would be his first since June 2020. Perez stepped in to take this fight on short notice after Nicolau's initial opponent, Manel Kape, withdrew.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's flyweight: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach
How Nicolau wins: Show off his striking and put together combinations. Nicolau has more to offer on the feet than Perez and once Nicolau finds his range, it's hard to disrupt what he starts doing. If Perez gets off to a bad start, it will be an uphill battle to turn it around. I believe Nicolau has the cardio for five rounds and he's more accurate than Perez, meaning he'll be more efficient with his energy.How Perez wins: Be a disruptor, if it looks like a clean, methodically paced fight that favors Nicolau. Chop at the leg of the taller opponent with kicks and create scrambles when you can. Perez is an underrated wrestler, maybe because he doesn't always land that picture-perfect double-leg takedown that plows you into the mat. But if he can create scrambles, maybe jump on Nicolau's back, he can be an opportunist in this fight. Perez needs to fight like he has nothing to lose. He's had a hard time in some of his recent fights. Forget that and just go fight.
X factor: Perez's wrestling. If Perez wins, it will be because he incorporated some kind of wrestling. And in a five-round fight, he has plenty of time to work it in.
Prediction: Nicolau. Either by decision or a later-round TKO.
Betting analysis
Parker: Nicolau to win (-185), lean under 4.5 rounds. Nicolau's win streak came to a screeching halt at the hands of Royval last year. He gets a chance to get back on track against Perez. As much as Perez impressed in his last fight against Muhammad Mokaev, not allowing Mokaev to dominate with his wrestling, he was getting picked apart on the feet. Perez should also have a striking advantage. Nicolau can fight well anywhere the fight goes, plus his unorthodox striking, will give Perez problems. It will also be interesting to see how Perez's cardio holds up in a five-round fight if Nicolau pushes the pace.Best bets on the rest of the card
Women's flyweight: Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva
Kuhn: Silva to win (-155). The odds have flipped from where they opened. That could be because Lipski has a much more established history in the UFC to warrant opening as a favorite, but Silva's prowess as a submission ace may have caused the shift.It's hard to trust the sample size from three first-round finishes, but Silva has shown the qualities of a dual-threat fighter, and her submission game would offer the best path to victory against Lipski.
Lipski is comfortable on her feet, so the question is whether her takedown defense can hold long enough to test Silva's gas tank or open striking opportunities. I'm siding with the recent market action and taking Silva.
Parker: Silva to win. Silva has been must-see TV since she stepped into the Octagon. She is 3-0 with all the wins coming by way of submission. Lipski is a submission specialist in her own right, however Silva is more skilled everywhere this fight may go. She just needs to survive a potential aggressive onslaught from Lipski early on. Lipski's last three losses have come via TKO, and Silva has some serious power on the feet.
Heavyweight: Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz
Parker: Diniz to win by KO/TKO. Diniz is making his UFC debut against Lane. Lane is coming off a first-round knockout loss and the UFC did him no favors by booking him against a KO artist like Diniz. There may be good value in taking under 1.5 rounds, however taking Diniz by KO/TKO has better odds. Considering the vulnerable chin of Lane, I'm taking Diniz by KO/TKO.Men's bantamweight: Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry
Kuhn: Yahya to win (+350). This won't be Yahya's first time being an enormous underdog, but if you had to pick an opponent with the openings for an upset, it would be someone who has almost no history of ground control.Granted, Henry has shown solid takedown defense, but when taken down he's struggled. Yahya has been able to hold extended control time and threaten with a variety of submissions. With 23 submission attempts to date, Yahya has more than anyone else on the card by a large margin. I'll take the big plus money on a grappler's chance.
Heavyweight: Don'tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado
Parker: Mayes to win (-105). In Machado's "Dana White's Contender Series" bout and his UFC debut, he showed that if he doesn't get the finish in Round 1, his striking volume significantly drops and the fight is likely going to a decision.I vowed never to bet on Mayes again after his loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab and then again when he fought Augusto Sakai. But then he was impressive against Andrei Arlovksi and made me rethink, maybe there is still something there with him. This is a favorable matchup for Mayes, as long as he doesn't get finished in the first round. He will be the bigger and more athletic fighter, and based on his previous fights that went to a decision, we know he has the gas tank to go three rounds. Look for Mayes to avoid the early onslaught from Machado in Round 1 and use his wrestling to control from top position. As the fight goes on, Machado will continue to fade. Look for Mayes to win a boring decision.
