Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 57,711
UFC 312: Expert picks, best bets for Du Plessis-Strickland 2
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALTwo UFC titles will be up for grabs this weekend as middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis faces Sean Strickland in the UFC 312 main event, a rematch of their January 2024 title fight, and strawweight champion Zhang Weili goes for her third title defense vs. Tatiana Suarez in the co-main. The fight card takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN2/Disney+/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on Disney+/ESPN+).
Du Plessis, tied for No. 9 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings and undefeated inside the Octagon, last defended the title against former champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in August. Strickland, ESPN's No. 2-ranked middleweight, is a former champion of the division. He lost the belt to Du Plessis in their last fight.
Dre Waters spoke to veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the title fights and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
Din Thomas, veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Du Plessis wins: He needs to keep pressure on Strickland and dictate the pace. Keep moving forward to keep Strickland on the back foot. Du Plessis has to attack first, but he also needs to attack last, if Strickland has a counter for Du Plessis' initial attack. In addition to affecting Strickland's game plan, that activity could look better in the eyes of the judges. Du Plessis is also a skilled grappler, and if he can utilize that ability, it will be hard for Strickland to predict what's coming.How Strickland wins: Strickland has to keep moving forward. Whether it's throwing more kicks or being more active with his punches, he has to bring the fight to Du Plessis. Strickland didn't throw many kicks in the first fight, but mixing them in could help this time. Strickland also has to throw more punches. He was pretty effective with the jab in the first fight but he needs to use it consistently this time.
X factor: Strickland's power. As Strickland has evolved as a fighter, he's developed more confidence in his power punching. It's cleaner now. He might be able to hurt Du Plessis with that right hand, but he has to throw it to do so. It'll likely be the straight right that catches Du Plessis because of the technicality Strickland can throw it with.
Prediction: Strickland to win. His willingness to wait for this fight was telling, as he seems confident entering the rematch. I think he's highly motivated and has had his eyes set on a rematch for over a year now.
Betting analysis
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-190). In their first fight at UFC 297, Du Plessis won by split decision in a closely contested fight, and the rematch will have the same result. Although Du Plessis is coming off a submission win over Adesanya, Strickland is extremely durable and doesn't put himself in dangerous situations. I don't mind playing the over 4.5 rounds at the current odds. However, if you want a better price, take the fight to go the distance as it's hard not to imagine this bout going bell to bell.
Strawweight: Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
Din Thomas, veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Zhang wins: Zhang's footwork has to be on point. She has to be able to get in and attack Suarez, then get out without putting herself in a compromising position. If she does this properly, she can wear Suarez down and take over the matchup. Kicks should be a part of her game plan; as the shorter fighter, it allows her to get more separation from Suarez. The kicks could also affect the movement of Suarez, which isn't her strongest attribute.How Suarez wins: She has to corral Zhang into a position where she has to grapple. Cut off the cage and corner Zhang, then shoot good takedown attempts. Suarez has to get a good hold on Zhang before shooting for a takedown. Once she gets the takedown, Suarez needs to look for chokes when transitioning on the mat. There will be great opportunities to get a hold of Zhang's neck as she's trying to get into a better position or get back to her feet.
X factor: Zhang's power. Zhang is the shorter fighter, but she has plenty of power in her punches. I could see a situation where the two break from a clinching sequence and Zhang lands an overhand punch that could end the fight.
Prediction: Suarez to win. Sometimes these circumstances present themselves. Suarez is a fighter whose career has been derailed by cancer and injuries. Now, she's finally getting her title shot. This is her time. It's like divine intervention.
Betting analysis
Parker: Suarez to win (-120). Suarez will get her first shot at UFC gold vs. Zhang. Zhang is strong and has proven that she can make an opponent's night miserable in the cage for 25 minutes.However, Zhang's weakness is her takedown defense, and against arguably the strongest wrestler in women's MMA, that may be a problem. We saw her get taken down by Yan Xiaonan in her last fight. If Yan, who is not predominantly a wrestler, can get Zhang on the mat, then Suarez should be able to do it with no issue. I also believe that Suarez is one of the few fighters who can match Zhang's physicality. Unless Zhang can keep this fight standing and knock out Suarez, expect a new champion at the end of the night.
