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UFC 311: Expert picks, best bets for Makhachev vs. Moicano
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALESPN's No.1 pound-for-pound fighter headlines the first UFC pay-per-view of the year Saturday, as lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Renato Moicano in the main event of UFC 311 (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/FX/Disney+/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m on FX/Disney+/ESPN+). Moicano stepped up on late notice when original opponent Arman Tsarukyan was forced to withdraw with a back injury on Friday.
Makhachev, who has held the title since October 2022, is going for his fourth consecutive title defense. Most recently, he beat Dustin Poirier by fifth-round submission at UFC 302 last June. Moicano, No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a four-fight winning streak. He beat Benoît Saint Denis in his last fight in September.
The co-main event is also a title fight, as men's bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili makes his first defense against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.
Andreas Hale spoke to ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event and to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his thoughts on the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the title fights and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
Din Thomas: ESPN analyst
How Makhachev Wins: Rinse and repeat. Fight smart. Makhachev doesn't take a lot of chances but he will stay in your face and force mistakes. He will have to remain calm, like he always does, fight a good southpaw fight, secure some takedowns and wear on Moicano. He may be able to earn a submission late in the fight.How Moicano Wins: Moicano needs to be the better grappler to win the fight. Even though he has great skill overall, he tends to lean on his grappling a lot in order to win. If he can find some moments and tire Makhachev out a bit, he may be able to use the experience he won in his 2022 short-notice fight with Rafael Dos Anjos to stay strong in order to gain some advantages. He will have to outlast him in scrambles, get him tired, take the fight into deep water, and try to find a submission finish.
The X Factor: Moicano has nothing to lose. He has been in this position before when he fought Dos Anjos and he can use that experience in this fight because he knows exactly what it feels to fight on extremely short notice. He will know how to mentally prepare himself and correct the errors he made the last time he was in a short notice fight. He may come out very aggressive and force Makhachev to make a very rare mistake that can change the course of the fight.
Prediction: Makhachev by submission.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.Parker: Makhachev to win and over 1.5 rounds. Makhachev is sitting at -1150 for good reason. Everywhere that Moicano is good, Makhachev is just that much better. The question isn't will Makhachev win, it's how and when. To get that -1150 down to a manageable play, go with Makhachev to win and over 1.5 rounds. Moicano is good enough to survive 7 minutes and 30 seconds before he gets defeated. Look for Makhachev to also keep it on the feet and not give Moicano any chances to utilize his jiu-jitsu.
Men's bantamweight title fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Dvalishvili wins: I think Dvalishvili comes in with a chip on his shoulder because he feels the UFC forced this fight onto him too soon. He'll have to be the best version of himself, relentless with his takedown attempts and taking advantage of Nurmagomedov attempting kicks to secure takedowns. Both of these fighters are coming off wins against similar opponents, tall and lanky strikers. But Sean O'Malley, whom Dvalishvili beat for the title, is a better striker than Nurmagomedov's most recent opponent, Cory Sandhagen, and Dvalishvili was able to get in, score takedowns and keep O'Malley on his back.How Nurmagomedov wins: He has to neutralize Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling to change things up. Nurmagomedov needs to use those beautiful kicks in his arsenal, even at the risk of being taken down. It'll be an adjustment game for him throughout, and he will have to be smart in the striking game.
X factor: The war of attrition in the later rounds. I think this will be a nail-biter going into the championship rounds and it will boil down to who doesn't get tired. This is a long-distance race, and that falls right into Dvalishvili's wheelhouse. Can Nurmagomedov continue to stop the takedowns when he is tired?
Prediction: Dvalishvili By decision.
