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UFC 304: Expert picks and best bets for Edwards-Muhammad 2?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALLeon Edwards puts his welterweight title on the line against Belal Muhammad in the main event of UFC 304 at Co-op Live arena in Manchester, England, on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Edwards, No. 3 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has successfully defended the 170-pound championship twice since winning it in August 2022. Muhammad, No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a five-fight winning streak dating back to June 2021. Edwards and Muhammad fought to a no contest, due to an incidental eye poke in March 2021.
In the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes meet in a rematch as they square off for the UFC interim heavyweight title. Aspinall, who won the title at UFC 295, looks to avenge his lone UFC loss after an injury abruptly ended his last fight against Blaydes. Blaydes has won four of his previous five bouts.
Andreas Hale spoke to ESPN analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight title fight: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Alan Jouban, former UFC and ESPN analyst
How Edwards wins: Edwards is a tremendous grappler and he's good everywhere. In this matchup, he's the longer fighter and has the sharper and more accurate striking. Edwards needs to use his length and keep his back off the fence. Muhammad will pressure him, so he can't get pushed back. Use the striking to get Muhammad's respect.How Muhammad wins: Muhammad has to pressure Edwards like crazy. He has to put himself in uncomfortable positions. Be a miniature Daniel Cormier -- but the pressure on Edwards by letting his hands go and wrestling Edwards up against the fence. Muhammad has to use his cardio to his advantage.
X factor: This is a rematch and these guys know each other already. Edwards has to fight like he did in the first fight and Muhammad has to switch it up. If Edwards is expecting Muhammad to be the same guy he was when they first met, he'll be in for a rude awakening. Muhammad has gotten better everywhere and he is more confident. He knows how to make the proper adjustments now.
Prediction: Muhammad to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-225). After a 10-fight unbeaten streak, Muhammad is getting his first crack at UFC gold. Neither fighter is known for their finishing ways, but both are extremely strategic, high-IQ fighters, which should lead to a competitive chess match for five rounds.Edwards will look to strike from distance and defend against the relentless wrestling of Muhammad, which will drain the clock. With former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Numagomedov coaching Muhammad through his training camp, his game plan will likely be to use his striking to close the distance and implement his wrestling and high-paced style. Edwards has shown great takedown defense, but can he land his strikes while keeping up with Muhammad's pace? I think this fight will go all five rounds, and if you don't mind paying a little extra, take over 4.5 rounds to be safe.
Interim heavyweight title fight: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
How Aspinall wins: I am on the Aspinall hype train, I think he's the baddest man walking on the planet. He's the fastest fighter in the heavyweight division, he moves like a welterweight. He has the best boxing and arguably the best jiu-jitsu in the division. Aspinall has many ways to win this fight, but it will likely come by knockout. He will stun Blaydes and can use his ground and pound to end it.
How Blaydes wins: Blaydes has tremendous power, but he must take Aspinall down and use his wrestling to win. One way to get the takedown is to catch one of Aspinall's kicks. If not, try to hit Aspinall with a punch down the middle and use those long arms to counter if Aspinall tries a low kick.
X factor: Aspinall's speed. Only Ciryl Gane can match Aspinall's speed, but Gane doesn't use it as well as Aspinall. Aspinall's finishing capability comes from the speed at which he fights.
Prediction: Aspinall by knockout
Betting analysis
Parker: Aspinall to win inside the distance (-300). Aspinall is a rightful favorite in this matchup. He should be above -500, as he is better everywhere the fight could go. Even with the high-level wrestling of Blaydes, we saw he was taken down at will in the first round by an undersized heavyweight in Jailton Almeida. If Almeida can take him down with minimal resistance, imagine what Aspinall can do if he implements his ground game. However, this fight will likely stay standing until Aspinall lands a strike and puts Blaydes out. Blaydes is a talented fighter, but Aspinall has him beat wherever the fight goes.
