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UFC expert picks, best bets: Where does Steve Erceg pose a threat to Alexandre Pantoja?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALSteve Erceg has been in the UFC for less than a year. He made his debut in June 2023 with a decision victory that earned the Australian flyweight a performance of the night bonus, and followed that with a decision win over Alessandro Costa in November, then scored a first-round knockout of Matt Schnell in March.
That most recent win, over a top-10 125-pounder, earned Erceg another postfight bonus -- and a title shot. He will challenge Alexandre Pantoja in the main event of UFC 301 on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro (main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
Erceg (12-1), though a winner of 11 fights in a row, might seem to be a premature title challenger, but the champion has cleaned out the top of the division. Pantoja (27-5) owns three wins over former champ Brandon Moreno (one of them officially an exhibition because it came on "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show), two victories over recent title challenger Brandon Royval, plus wins over contenders Schnell, Alex Perez and Manel Kape. So now Erceg gets a shot at him.
Andreas Hale spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Pantoja wins: Pantoja's strength is obviously his grappling. But he is also very durable and tough as nails. He has the ability to close the distance, although he may take a few shots. When he gets in close, he's usually able to get his opponents down to the ground. If he can't get them to the ground, he's at least able to get back control, and once he has it, he's either going to finish you or he's going to ride the clock out. He wins this fight either by finishing Erceg with back control and a rear naked choke or by just dominating him with back control, round after round after round, rinse and repeat. One of those two things will happen if Pantoja wins this fight.How Erceg wins: Erceg might be the cleanest striker in the flyweight division. He has to keep this fight clean to win, and he has to disengage on the exchanges. Once Pantoja gets in on him with a shot, Erceg cannot give up his back. He has to keep Pantoja in front of him and not engage. He then must try to turn this into a straight striking match. If he can do that, he may be able to hit Pantoja enough to get a finish or just ride out with a clean victory. But he's going to have to do it on his feet.
X factor: Pantoja's power. The power Pantoja possesses in his hands and feet doesn't always look pretty. In fact, it does look ugly at times. He might be able to string together a couple of wild combinations to shake Erceg up. Pantoja may be able to use it to take him down or maybe just get him off his game enough to where he can't compete as well.
Prediction: I think Erceg is in over his head. He's a great fighter, a tremendous talent, but this is a big spot for him. And the way Pantoja is operating right now, he's really taking advantage of his window of opportunity. I pick Pantoja by decision.
Ian Parker's betting analysis
Pantoja to win (-190). Ever since Erceg made his debut in the UFC, I have stated that he will be a future champion. However, as good as I think Erceg is, and as much potential as I think he has, this is too much too soon. The only reason Erceg is getting a title shot now is due to being in the right place at the right time. He hasn't defeated a top-five flyweight or been in a five-round main event. He's a talented fighter with a high ceiling, but if he can't KO Pantoja early, he will be in for a rough night. Look for Pantoja to plod forward with hooks to set up his ground game. I expect this fight to look the same as Pantoja's last defense, a decision win against Royval in December.Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Men's bantamweight: Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez
Martinez to win (-150). This is a head-scratcher for me. As much as I love Aldo, the King of Rio, this fight makes little sense for returning from retirement. Martinez is a very dangerous fighter with not a big name. On top of that, Aldo has been out of action for the better part of two years. And to make things even worse for the former champion, Martinez is on a six-fight winning streak and has been dominating the field in Aldo's absence. I'm taking the younger Martinez here. He should have no issue implementing his game and adding a huge name in Aldo to his résumé.Lightweight: Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Ruffy to win (-190). Ruffy looked like a star in the making when we saw him TKO Raimond Magomedaliev in October. Now that he's taking on the always entertaining Mullarkey, the lines on this fight keep skyrocketing as it seems everyone is on Ruffy ... and rightfully so. Mullarkey has lost two of his past three fights by way of TKO, and I wouldn't be shocked if he suffers the same result here. I expect Mullarkey to attempt to wrestle early to avoid Ruffy's power. However, after a few failed takedown attempts, Ruffy will take over and get the win in his UFC debut.
