🗣️📢Tuesday 4/18 All-Sports *Plays and Chat Thread*🗣️📢

[Tanko]

I don't watch a lot of CWS baseball but I have to say these black "Southside" uniforms are awesome.

 

[JDS]

I don't watch a lot of CWS baseball but I have to say these black "Southside" uniforms are awesome.

What have you learned regarding the new rules in the MLB the last 3 weeks ? Anything Tankdog

 

[Tanko]

What have you learned regarding the new rules in the MLB the last 3 weeks ? Anything Tankdog

• Runs are up (obviously) due to pitch clock, no shift, and bigger bases.
  9.3 RPG so far vs 8.2 RPG in April 2022 (13% increase).
  
  This might be leading to starters being pulled sooner. Not sure yet, need more data. The so what of that? Relievers may become more leveraging if you bet full game plays. Probably why you're seeing more F5 plays so far from a lot of people.
  
  
• There might be value in betting props on stolen bases, especially with pitcher's limited throws to the base.
  
  
• Less beer being consumed due to shorter games.

 

[Tanko]

I've not been too into O/U plays yet so I can't tell if the 13% increase in runs is compensated for by the books. My guess is it has but no hard data on my part confirming that.

 

[Tanko]

O/U data for games seems to indicate books are covering the change but not completely.....

O/U Total from BOL for 2023 so far: 8.7 avg
2022 entire year from BOL: 8.0 avg
Tough comparison here (1st 3 weeks of 2023 vs all of 2022 data so take it with a grain of salt).



Increase in O/U totals from books so far is 0.7 rpg.
Actual increase in rpg actually so far is 1.1 rpg (see post 23).

It may indicate books are slightly behind the totals.

 

[JDS]

• Runs are up (obviously) due to picth clock, no shift, and bigger bases.
  9.3 RPG so far vs 8.2 RPG in April 2022 (13% increase).
  
  This might be leading to starters being pulled sooner. Not sure yet, need more data. The so what of that? Relievers may become more leveraging if you bet full game plays. Probably why you're seeing more F5 plays so far from a lot of people.
  
  
• There might be value in betting props on stolen bases, especially with pitcher's limited throws to the base.
  
  
• Less beer being consumed due to shorter games.

Another mental note, but this is too good of a break down. I will copy & paste to my notes app for MLB 2023, thanks for offering your analysis.

 

[Tanko]

Another mental note, but this is too good of a break down. I will copy & paste to my notes app for MLB 2023, thanks for offering your analysis.

Remember, its really early in the season with limited data so don't bet the bank on these trends.... yet.

 

[JDS]

Remember, its really early in the season with limited data so don't bet the bank on these trends.... yet.

Of course not just feeling things out buddy, I appreciate your break down.