La Lafayette +6.5 vs Houston Total 56
Opened at 6, jumped to 7.5 and settled at 6.5.
Total has steadily dropped from 61 down to 56.
Shreveport LA: 26 F 15 mph. A little breezy.
Offense/Defense:
- Cajuns have a great defense (20th on SP+ rankings) but the Cougars have a great offense.(9th on SP+). The Cougar passing game is 7th at 320 ypg.
- On the opposite side, Cajuns have a poor offense (94th SP+) while the Cougars are one of the worst defenses in the country at 115th on SP+.
Opt-outs/Injuries:
- La Lafeyette lost their #1QB (Woolridge) in mid November. #2QB (Fields) will make his 3rd start of the season. Fields is OK but not up to par with Woolridge so that raises some concern.
- #1WR and #4WR Cajuns opted out. Their best DE also opted-out.
- Nothing of significance on Houston's side of the ball.
Total:
- With Woolridge out and Fields a relative unknown, I expect Cajuns total dropped from mid-30s to mid-20s. Again Fields is relatively unknown so their may be an upside on points. Tough to say.
- Houston will likely score in the mid-30s to low 40s based on their performance against similar defenses. Also, they are averaging 37 ppg for the season and 44 ppg over last 5 games.
I see the over as viable option. Cajun offense
may/may not score as much with Fields in as QB but Houston will put up some points with their passing game.
Play #1 - Over 56
Play #2 - Houston -6.5 with the Fields (QB) being an unknown for Cajuns and with their WR and DE opt-outs.
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