✔️Super Bowl Props: 'Sharps' Backing Chiefs To Have Longest Kick Return

[Wagerallsports]

Sharp bettors hammer Super Bowl props at SuperBook, Caesars​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

In keeping with an annual Las Vegas tradition, gamblers lined up at the Westgate SuperBook on Thursday night to take the first crack at the book’s enormous menu of Super Bowl prop bets.

The massive video wall lit up at 5 p.m. with more than 500 props and thousands of ways to wager on the 49ers-Chiefs game at Allegiant Stadium. About 20 bettors, most of them professional, took turns making two wagers of up to $2,000 each before heading to the back of the line to repeat the process.

“This is a predominantly sharp crowd,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “Pretty much every guy in this line right now is betting the limit, it’s a respected bet, and we’re going to move the number.

“Most of them are just playing differences between our book and another book and trying to get a middle. They’re trying to win both ways. Some have their position and make their own numbers.”

Caesars Sportsbook posted more than 800 Super Bowl props Thursday afternoon, and also took plenty of sharp action.

“Most of the plays so far are sharp plays because the sharps are the ones that get involved early on a lot of the props. Their bets are the same as usual — a lot of unders and a lot of nos,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “In any Super Bowl, from a prop perspective, we’re always looking to have a low-scoring game. The public money dwarfs the sharps. They’re going to bet overs and yeses on all the players.’”

Murray said the sharps pounded the Chiefs total net yards under 368½ and 49ers rushing yards over 122½.

Caesars trader Joey Feazel said sharp bettors at his book are backing the Chiefs to have the longest kick return (-160).

“There are expectations that (Harrison) Butker’s going to kick a touchback on every one of his kicks, which he has done for most of the year,” Feazel said.

Most popular props

Murray said some of the most popular props at the SuperBook are Super Bowl MVP (Mahomes is the +140 favorite), player to score the first touchdown (Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is the 4-1 favorite), a safety to be scored (9-1), a successful 2-point conversion (3-1) and the game to go to overtime (9-1).

The most popular prop at Caesars is the coin toss.

“The coin toss, every year, is one of the top-bet markets,” Feazel said. “People love it. Quick action.”

A Caesars bettor in Michigan wagered $1 million on the 49ers on the money line (-120), $200,000 on San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy to be named Super Bowl MVP (+240) and $100,000 on the coin toss to land tails.

Sharp bets

Professional sports bettor Bill Krackomberger made 15 max prop bets Thursday at the SuperBook.

He said his strongest play was the total yardage of all touchdowns of the game to go over 74½. He bet it again to go over 76½

“I think there’s going to be touchdowns in this game,” said Krackomberger (@BillKrackman). “I didn’t bet the over in the game, but I actually think there’s going to be longer touchdowns and I think over 74½ is a really good bet.”

Pro bettor Jeff Whitelaw likes Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to go over his receptions (6½, -130) and receiving yards (72½).

“I like Kelce because in the big games, he’s hard to guard, and that’s where Mahomes looks,” he said. “He’s sort of like Mahomes’ security blanket. Obviously, every team tries to take him away. But he gets open when you need him.”

Pro bettor Randy McKay made two bets at the SuperBook: Purdy to complete his first pass (-220) and Niners tight end George Kittle to go over his receiving yards (49½).

“Usually in Super Bowls, to get a guy on the board, it’s usually a safe, easy pass to the receiver or running back, so I laid a little chalk on that,” said McKay (@RR39). “The other one, I like Kittle. In this Super Bowl played four years ago, he would’ve easily went over the total, if not for a phantom pass interference at the end of the game.

“Kansas City gives up yards to the tight end.”

 

[Pimike]

Thanks for sharing

 

[Wagerallsports]

Thanks for sharing

 

[jjgold]

If you’re gonna play props, you have to play longshots

 

[Wagerallsports]

If you’re gonna play props, you have to play longshots

Agreed

I've played some defensive player longshots/semi-longshots

Only top guy I played in Christian McCaffrey

Biggest game of the year the 49ers will game-plan to get the ball in his hands as often as possible

 

[Wagerallsports]

If you’re gonna play props, you have to play longshots

Forgot to mention I think WRs should not even be an option

If a WR is having a good game, that likely means the QB is also having a good game, and we know which one is more likely to be awarded MVP

 

[eddiewilson]

Only SB bet I'm making is Noah Gray 1st TD
+5000

From SI article

Continued usage of tight end depth​

One of the positive tweaks the Chiefs made entering the playoffs is going to multi-tight end sets more often on offense. It naturally helps trim down the wide receiver rotation and (theoretically) also keeps defenses closer to their base personnel packages than their nickel or dime packages. For a team like Baltimore, boasting plenty of intriguing options, they were another candidate to see players like Noah Gray and Blake Bell more often. That's exactly what happened on Sunday.

Gray (58%) and Bell (20%) both kept up their recent trends of playing time and involvement in the AFC Championship Game. In fact, Gray tied a season-high in targets with five. While he only had two catches for eight yards, the Chiefs made an effort to get their third-year tight end involved. Bell gave them an extra blocking threat. Perhaps mixing things up will go over better in the Super Bowl against a more static defense like San Francisco's but if the matchup favors it, the Chiefs should continue getting the most out of their tight end depth.