✔️SEC 2024 Preview & Breakdown

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SEC college football 2024 preview: Breaking down Georgia, Alabama, Texas, OU, more​

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Here are the top 10 college football teams, ranked by their average SP+ ranking over the past 20 years.\

Here are the top 10 college football teams, ranked by their average SP+ ranking over the past 20 years.

1. Alabama 23.9
2. Ohio State 20.9
3. Georgia 20.2
4. Oklahoma 19.3
5. LSU 18.7
6. Clemson 16.5
7. Florida 15.8
8. Auburn 14.1
9. Texas 14.1
10. Oregon 14.0

The SEC had five of those top nine. Now it has seven. One of the biggest metaphorical land grabs in the history of conference realignment has officially come to fruition: This fall, Oklahoma and Texas will start play in what was already the strongest, deepest conference in the sport.

A couple of the teams (Florida and Auburn) are trying to work their way back up to a top-20 level. A couple (Florida and Oklahoma) are taking on just about the hardest schedules they've ever seen. A couple of teams who are not on the above list (Ole Miss and Missouri) have grand College Football Playoff ambitions after breakthrough seasons. Nine or so teams overall harbor semi-realistic hopes of a top-12 finish and CFP bid.

It's going to be an awfully interesting fall down South, in other words. Let's preview the SEC!

2023 recap​

TEAM	REC. (CONF)	SP+ RK	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	ST SP+
Georgia (SEC)	13-1 (8-1)	31.2 (2)	41.5 (4)	12.2 (5)	1.9 (4)
Texas (Big 12)	12-2 (9-1)	23.2 (6)	39.3 (6)	17.7 (13)	1.6 (17)
Alabama (SEC)	12-2 (9-0)	23.1 (7)	36.8 (11)	15.6 (8)	2.0 (2)
Missouri (SEC)	11-2 (6-2)	19.3 (10)	36.5 (13)	18.0 (14)	0.8 (45)
LSU (SEC)	10-3 (6-2)	19.1 (11)	44.6 (2)	25.0 (52)	-0.5 (82)
Ole Miss (SEC)	11-2 (6-2)	18.4 (12)	36.3 (15)	19.2 (23)	1.3 (26)
Tennessee (SEC)	9-4 (4-4)	16.2 (14)	34.9 (18)	19.2 (22)	0.6 (52)
Texas A&M (SEC)	7-6 (4-4)	15.6 (16)	34.5 (20)	18.8 (20)	-0.1 (72)
Oklahoma (Big 12)	10-3 (7-2)	15.0 (17)	38.5 (8)	22.6 (38)	-1.0 (94)
Kentucky (SEC)	7-6 (3-5)	10.5 (22)	31.6 (33)	22.2 (34)	1.1 (39)
Auburn (SEC)	6-7 (3-5)	7.6 (36)	26.4 (68)	20.1 (29)	1.3 (27)
Florida (SEC)	5-7 (3-5)	6.8 (41)	31.1 (38)	26.0 (60)	1.7 (9)
S. Carolina (SEC)	5-7 (3-5)	4.3 (51)	28.2 (58)	25.6 (55)	1.7 (12)
Arkansas (SEC)	4-8 (1-7)	3.5 (54)	28.3 (56)	26.6 (66)	1.8 (6)
Miss. St. (SEC)	5-7 (1-7)	0.5 (62)	24.7 (77)	24.9 (51)	0.7 (50)
Vanderbilt (SEC)	2-10 (0-8)	-12.7 (110)	23.6 (80)	36.3 (124)	-0.1 (71)

This league doesn't always have the depth and overall quality it proclaims to have, but it certainly did last year: The SEC's 2024 roster features nine of 2023's top 17 teams, per SP+. It also, of course, features three of the top six in the final CFP rankings (even if I very much disagreed with who finished fourth). There was enough depth that teams ranked just outside the top 15 in SP+ were hoping to hit .500 (and teams outside the top 40 were failing to do so).

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2024 projections​

TEAM	SP+ (RK)	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W	SOS RK
Georgia	36.3 (1)	47.3 (2)	11.0 (5)	10.3	6.5	5
Texas	29.5 (4)	45.4 (4)	16.0 (12)	9.9	6.4	14
Alabama	29.1 (5)	43.7 (7)	14.6 (8)	9.5	5.8	10
Ole Miss	26.6 (8)	44.0 (6)	17.4 (15)	9.8	5.9	24
LSU	25.1 (9)	47.2 (3)	22.1 (35)	9.2	5.7	20
Missouri	23.1 (11)	41.4 (8)	18.3 (18)	9.8	5.9	37
Texas A&M	19.8 (13)	38.5 (11)	18.7 (21)	8.4	5.0	23
Oklahoma	19.3 (15)	36.9 (17)	17.5 (16)	7.5	3.6	3
Tennessee	19.0 (16)	37.5 (14)	18.5 (19)	8.6	4.9	21
Kentucky	12.4 (25)	33.5 (31)	21.1 (31)	7.0	3.5	9
Auburn	9.7 (31)	30.9 (50)	21.1 (32)	6.6	3.0	8
Florida	9.6 (33)	35.1 (26)	25.5 (50)	4.7	2.4	1
S. Carolina	5.3 (43)	27.9 (64)	22.6 (37)	5.0	2.0	4
Arkansas	4.7 (46)	31.8 (38)	27.2 (57)	4.9	1.9	6
Miss. St.	-2.3 (68)	25.1 (78)	27.5 (60)	4.0	1.1	2
Vanderbilt	-9.7 (97)	25.3 (76)	35.1 (117)	2.8	0.5	7

One thing we're seeing with the megaconferences of the day -- the SEC and new Big 12 have 16 teams, the ACC 17, the Big Ten 18 -- is that schedule strengths within the conference are pretty diverse.

Nothing can top the ACC in this regard (Georgia Tech's schedule ranks 15th in SP+ SOS, while Syracuse's ranks 90th), but playing in the SEC this year could mean you have just about the hardest schedule known to mankind -- Florida plays four of the projected top nine teams and eight of the top 25 -- and it could mean you play three projected top-40 teams, as Missouri does. Will Mizzou get credit from the CFP committee for going 10-2 or so "in the SEC" even though the Tigers have only a borderline top-40 schedule? Will Billy Napier get proper credit from his bosses if he goes 7-5 (which it might take a top-15ish team to do)?

Odds Of Winning The SEC Title​

TEAM	CONF. TITLE %	11+ WINS %	6+ WINS %	RET PROD (RK)	OFF RET	DEF RET
Georgia	31.9%	46.2%	100.0%	68.2% (29)	75.1% (22)	61.4% (61)
Texas	15.8%	29.0%	100.0%	67.4% (36)	73.4% (26)	61.5% (60)
Alabama	14.1%	21.3%	99.9%	52.7% (98)	63.6% (58)	41.8% (121)
Ole Miss	10.7%	27.2%	100.0%	69.9% (23)	82.5% (9)	57.3% (80)
LSU	9.1%	16.4%	99.7%	64.1% (60)	57.8% (79)	70.5% (28)
Missouri	6.7%	27.7%	100.0%	71.3% (17)	81.9% (10)	60.7% (64)
Texas A&M	4.4%	6.0%	98.0%	67.3% (38)	71.4% (35)	63.2% (53)
Tennessee	2.9%	5.0%	99.3%	48.4% (108)	49.9% (101)	46.9% (111)
Oklahoma	2.8%	1.0%	93.2%	65.0% (54)	43.7% (114)	86.2% (3)
Kentucky	0.7%	0.2%	87.7%	72.1% (14)	68.0% (41)	76.1% (14)
Auburn	0.4%	0.1%	82.2%	66.5% (40)	76.1% (19)	56.8% (85)
Florida	0.3%	0.0%	26.8%	69.5% (24)	72.9% (27)	66.1% (44)
S. Carolina	0.1%	0.0%	31.7%	65.1% (52)	50.9% (97)	79.2% (11)
Arkansas	0.1%	0.0%	30.3%	60.9% (69)	65.8% (53)	56.0% (89)
Miss. St.	<0.1%	0.0%	10.5%	44.8% (116)	49.6% (102)	40.0% (124)
Vanderbilt	<0.1%	0.0%	63.5%	64.6% (57)	59.9% (72)	69.3% (32)

Due to general perceptions and actual schedule strengths -- while there's still a range, the average SEC schedule is indeed about one game harder than the average ACC or Big 12 schedule this year (and about half a game harder than the Big Ten) -- it's pretty safe to assume that if you get to 10 wins, you're a CFP team far more often than not.

With that in mind, here are each team's odds of clearing that 10-win bar: Georgia 78.6%, Missouri 63.3%, Texas 63.2%, Ole Miss 61.4%, Alabama 52.3%, LSU 43.3%, Tennessee 23.4%, Texas A&M 22.4%, Oklahoma 6.5%, Kentucky 2.1%, Auburn 1.1%, South Carolina 0.1%, Arkansas 0.04%, Florida 0.03%, Mississippi State <0.01%, Vanderbilt <0.01%

I'll say this much: Missouri couldn't have timed things better. The Tigers are facing the easiest schedule they're ever going to have moving forward with their most proven team in a decade or more. Ole Miss is in a similar boat; the Rebels escaped the West division, they have only the No. 24 schedule in the country and they've spent big to absolutely load up their roster. If all it takes is indeed 10-2 to get to the CFP, both of these teams are in pretty good shape.

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Five best games of 2024​

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

Georgia at Alabama (Sept. 28). Georgia and Alabama have played each other six times in the past six seasons -- four times in Atlanta for the SEC title, once in Indianapolis in a CFP championship game and once in one of the schools' actual home stadiums. The schedule-makers don't bring them together all that often, even if they have forced themselves into each other's postseason plans a good amount, and since their lone regular-season meeting of late was in the COVID-affected 2020 season, this will be the first time the sport's two biggest recent giants have played each other in a packed Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2007. Seems like a pretty big event!

Georgia at Texas (Oct. 19). This one is what Texas, the SEC and its media partners (hello) signed up for. The Dawgs and Horns have faced each other only once since 1984 -- remember the "We're back!" game? -- but if projections are correct, this could be the first of two meetings in 2024. These are the two most likely teams to make the SEC championship game.

Missouri at Alabama (Oct. 26). The last time Missouri faced Alabama as an underdog of less than two touchdowns was 1978, when Bear Bryant's Crimson Tide visited Columbia giving 12 points and pulled away for a 38-20 win. This will be the eighth game of the season for Mizzou and might be the first time all year that the Tigers are underdogs.

Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9). Goodness, who did Georgia tick off in the SEC offices? The Dawgs not only drew all three projected top-8 teams not named Georgia -- they drew all three on the road! They're almost certainly good enough to win two of the three, at least, but you could have an awfully good team and still go 0-3 at Bama, Texas and Ole Miss.

Alabama at LSU (Nov. 9). SP+ is more confident in LSU than I am this season, but Bama at LSU is always going to be a mammoth encounter.

 

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Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders​

Georgia Bulldogs​

Head coach: Kirby Smart (ninth year, 94-16 overall)

2024 projection: First in SP+, 10.3 average wins (6.5 in SEC)

You can't win 'em all, but Georgia wins most of 'em. Since 2017, Kirby Smart's Dawgs are 86-11, averaging an SP+ ranking of 3.4. Over the past three years, they're a staggering 42-2. Average ranking: 1.3. With Nick Saban retired, it means the last time Smart lost to a head coach who is currently active was five and a half years ago, against Tom Herman's Texas in the Sugar Bowl. (Herman is now at Florida Atlantic.)

UGA's upset loss to Alabama in the 2023 SEC championship game prevented a national title three-peat, but per SP+, the Dawgs have had a top-five offense for three straight years and a top-five defense for five straight, and they fielded their third top-five special teams unit of the past seven seasons, too.

This is college football's model program. And in 2024, it returns far more than normal. The Dawgs are 29th in returning production -- as high as you'll ever see for a program that sends so many players to the pros -- and Smart held on to defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. Quarterback Carson Beck returns after throwing for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns, and four offensive line starters are back, including All-SEC guard (and likely 2025 first-round pick) Tate Ratledge.

Maybe the biggest hole on the roster comes in the skill corps, which lost all-world tight end Brock Bowers, second-rounder Ladd McConkey, deep threat Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and a running back duo (Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton) that combined for 1,671 yards at 5.9 per carry. Smart was aggressive in the transfer portal, adding running back Trevor Etienne (Florida), receivers Colbie Young (Miami), London Humphreys (Vanderbilt) and Michael Jackson III (USC) and tight end Benjamin Yurosek (Stanford). Etienne and Young are good veterans, and Humphreys averaged 20.0 yards per catch as a freshman.

They'll join a number of at least semi-proven players. At running back, sophomore Branson Robinson, a former top-40 prospect, returns after missing 2023 with injury, and 240-pound sophomore Roderick Robinson II averaged 8.2 yards per carry in a small sample. At receiver, slot man Dominic Lovett is steady, and junior Dillon Bell hinted at huge potential late in the season. Tight end Oscar Delp got more than 500 snaps last year, as an extra blocker and a Bowers fill-in when the star was hurt. It feels like Beck has what he needs here.

Georgia is used to losing stars to the NFL and still dominating defensively, and this year it didn't even lose as many stars as normal. Three defensive backs went in the top 90 of the draft, but eight of 12 players with at least 200 snaps return in the front seven. That includes a particularly disruptive pair of linemen in Mykel Williams and Warren Brinson (combined: 17.5 TFLs, 16 run stops, 6.5 sacks, 4 batted passes), leading tackler Smael Mondon and a sophomore linebacker (CJ Allen) who might have been the best tackler on the team last year.

Coverage is at least a slight concern with corner Kamari Lassiter and nickel Tykee Smith gone. Daylen Everette is solid, but less proven youngsters such as sophomores Julian Humphrey and Daniel Harris and five-star freshman Ellis Robinson IV must step up. They probably will.

My favorite player: QB Carson Beck. It's hard to replace a two-time national champion quarterback, but Beck made it look easy. He ranked fifth in Total QBR last season, and he was remarkably consistent for a first-year starter, producing at least an 83.0 Total QBR in 10 of 14 games and completing at least 65% of his passes in every game. And he might have used the middle of the field better than any quarterback in the country.

Those two particularly big, green boxes between the hashes there? He completed 56 of 75 passes there (74.7%) for 915 yards, six touchdowns and two picks. Some of that went to Bowers, but this was also gold for Rosemy-Jacksaint and McConkey (combined: 13 catches for 279). Between the run game and passing between the hashes, no one dominates the middle of the field like UGA.

 

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Texas Longhorns​

Head coach: Steve Sarkisian (fourth year, 25-14 overall)

2024 projection: Fourth in SP+, 9.9 average wins (6.4 in SEC)

For years, seemingly every ambitious football program tried to hire a Saban assistant in the hopes that, having seen the Bama blueprints, he could create New Bama elsewhere. For years, this proved to be a poor hiring strategy. But then Kirby Smart actually created New Bama in Athens. And Steve Sarkisian might be on his way to doing the same thing in Austin.

After improving significantly in 2021 but only going 8-5 in 2022, Sark's Longhorns improved further and won big in 2023. They won at Bama, survived a number of near-pratfalls in Big 12 play -- after going 4-10 in one-score finishes in 2021-22, they went 3-1 in the 2023 regular season -- and peaked with a blowout of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game. They stumbled against close-game master Washington in the CFP semifinal, but per SP+, Texas had its best offense, defense and overall team since 2009. And like Georgia, the Horns return their starting quarterback (Quinn Ewers) and four starting O-linemen, including a potential All-American in left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.

Also like Georgia: Texas is rebuilding its skill corps. Ewers threw for 3,479 yards and finished 18th in Total QBR -- good enough to fend off the "Arch Manning's turn??" talk (which still somewhat rumbles after Manning's spring brilliance) -- but he'll have a new supporting cast with last year's leading rusher and top five receiving targets gone. Sophomore CJ Baxter and junior Jaydon Blue will carry the rushing load, but Sarkisian added four pass catchers from the transfer portal, including coveted wideouts Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and Isaiah Bond (Alabama). Throw in recent blue-chippers in sophomore Johntay Cook II and freshman Ryan Wingo, and this year's receiving corps might be even more talented than last year's. The receivers still need to find a good rapport with Ewers, though.

Defense is where the "like Georgia" comparisons trail off. Texas ranked 13th in defensive SP+ last season -- again: best ranking since 2009 -- but that's not at Georgia's level, and Sarkisian had to retool the defensive line and secondary. Texas lost tackles T'Vondre Sweat (the Outland Trophy winner) and Byron Murphy II; the Horns still have a big, veteran duo in Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton, but Sarkisian brought in a trio of tackle transfers in Arizona's Bill Norton and Tiaoalii Savea and Louisville's Jermayne Lole. At defensive end, he landed an outstanding performer in UTSA's Trey Moore (14 sacks in 2023) to boost a pass rush that ranked just 82nd in sacks per dropback.

Linebacker is well-stocked -- former top-20 prospect Anthony Hill Jr. thrived as a true freshman last season, and veteran David Gbenda is steady -- but the secondary got thinned out, losing three of last year's top six and five of the top 10. Corner Malik Muhammad was another instant-impact freshman last year (his 19.3 QBR allowed was the best on the team), but he'll need help from transfers Jay'Vion Cole (San Jose State) and Andrew Mukuba (Clemson). Mukuba allowed just an 8.6 QBR, though mostly in the slot.

My favorite player: LT Kelvin Banks Jr. The 6-foot-4, 320-pound former top-40 prospect played 956 snaps last year as a true sophomore, all at left tackle. He allowed just one sack and nine pressures. Per Sports Info Solutions, he averaged less than one blown block per game, run or pass. On the What a QB Needs checklist, "nearly flawless left tackle" ranks pretty high. Ewers has one.

 

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Alabama Crimson Tide​

Head coach: Kalen DeBoer (first year)

2024 projection: Fifth in SP+, 9.5 average wins (5.8 in SEC)

The last time Nick Saban wasn't in charge of the Alabama football program, interim coach Joe Kines, standing in for the fired Mike Shula, led the Crimson Tide to a tough 34-31 loss to Oklahoma State in the Independence Bowl. It was Dec. 28, 2006. Most current high school prospects weren't born yet.

Saban's 17-year reign brought almost impossible highs: 16 straight top-10 finishes and double-digit win totals, four Heisman winners, nine SEC titles, six national titles, three other national title-game appearances. It's going to be almost impossible to replicate the accomplishments of the greatest coach of all time.

Luckily for Kalen DeBoer, his day job is far too involved to worry about legacies. He's got a team to coach, and standards aside, it will be an awfully good one. There are still former blue-chippers as far as the eye can see, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator (and longtime DeBoer assistant) Nick Sheridan should have quite a bit of fun with quarterback Jalen Milroe & Co.

Milroe should have an excellent line in front of him, with All-SEC guard Tyler Booker and five-star sophomore Kadyn Proctor back and sophomore center Parker Brailsford, part of Washington's Joe Moore Award-winning line, joining the party. But there's been a lot of turnover in the skill corps. Slot receiver Kobe Prentice is the only returning receiver who caught more than 15 passes, though Washington transfer Germie Bernard does give them a second. Last year's top two running backs are gone, and the leading returning rusher is Jam Miller (201 yards). If Bama ends up an SEC and national title contender, Milroe will likely have gotten lots of help from blue-chip youngsters such as sophomore running back Justice Haynes, sophomore receiver Jalen Hale and freshman receivers Ryan Williams and Caleb Odom.

Of the 16 defenders with at least 200 snaps last year, only six return, and three of them are linemen. In the secondary, nickel back Malachi Moore and little-used reserve DeVonta Smith are the only two returning defensive backs who saw even one snap! DeBoer added five defensive back transfers, including cornerback starters from USC (Domani Jackson) and Wake Forest (DaShawn Jones). At the very least, a couple of blue-chip freshmen -- Zay Mincey? Jaylen Mbakwe? Zabien Brown? -- will have to play solid roles from the start.

Up front, last year's top three pass rushers are gone, but defensive coordinator Kane Wommack will have an embarrassment of 300-pound riches: Veterans Jaheim Oatis, Tim Keenan III and Tim Smith are all back, and former top-10 prospect LT Overton transferred from Texas A&M (because the Tide didn't already have enough of blue-chippers). We'll see who emerges as the best edge rusher -- my guess: senior Quandarrius Robinson -- but Deontae Lawson is one of the nation's best inside linebackers.

My favorite player: QB Jalen Milroe. He scrambled himself into too many sacks, and Saban briefly benched him to make sure he was the best option on the roster. But as a relatively unmolded player, Milroe was one of the scariest quarterbacks in the country. And he was otherworldly down the stretch.

From Nov. 1 on, Milroe ranked 10th in Total QBR (sixth among returnees), completing 67% of his passes at 13.8 yards per completion and averaging 84 non-sack rushing yards (7.2 per carry). He doesn't have former DeBoer quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s accuracy, but he's about 20 times more mobile.

 

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Ole Miss Rebels​

Head coach: Lane Kiffin (fifth year, 34-15 overall)

2024 projection: Eighth in SP+, 9.8 average wins (5.9 in SEC)

Say this much for Lane Kiffin: He commits. He didn't decide to go for it on fourth down more; he decided to follow the book almost to the letter and go for it more than almost anyone else. He didn't decide to use the transfer portal to fill gaps in the two-deep; he decided to load up with 20-plus transfers every year. He's remained committed to extreme tempo, even after many coaches have backed off of it.

The effects are clear. Kiffin's Rebels are 29-10 over the past three seasons with an average SP+ ranking of 11.3. Last year, they won 11 games for the first time ever.

Using SP+ percentile ratings, the 2023 team was Ole Miss' second-best squad in 50 years. But the Rebels still lost to Bama and Georgia by a combined 76-27. Kiffin is now 0-4 against those two schools.

There's basically one rung of the SEC ladder remaining for Kiffin at Ole Miss, and it's the hardest one to climb. But if he's ever going to climb it and reach the SEC championship game, this is the year. The Rebels are scheduled to play only two of the other six top teams in the league, and Kiffin was particularly successful in the portal. He added four running backs, led by 1,000-yard rusher Rashad Amos (Miami-Ohio) and Henry Parrish Jr. (Miami). He added South Carolina's Juice Wells (928 yards) and four others to a receiving corps that already boasted Tre Harris (985 yards), Jordan Watkins and tight end Caden Prieskorn. He added ace pass rushers Princely Umanmielen (Florida) and Chris Hardie (Jacksonville State) and six defensive backs to a pass defense that wasn't quite good enough last season.

Most importantly, he's added some road graders. Line play was where Ole Miss seemingly lacked the most against Bama and Georgia, and Kiffin brought in both of the starting guards (Nate Kalepo and Julius Buelow) from Washington's Joe Moore Award-winning line, plus two other FBS starters. On defense, he landed former top recruit Walter Nolen of Texas A&M to work with solid returnees Jared Ivey, JJ Pegues and Zxavian Harris.

It sure seems like Ole Miss has depth in the trenches that it couldn't boast in recent years. It also has one of the nation's better quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart, who threw for 3,364 yards and 23 touchdowns last year and ranked 16th in Total QBR, eighth among 2024 returnees. Kiffin's countercultural program building has already raised Ole Miss to its highest sustained level since the 1960s; now we get to find out if the Rebels can make an honest-to-god title push as well.

My favorite player: WR Tre Harris. Your stats aren't supposed to get better when you move from Conference USA to the SEC, but such was the case for Harris. After producing 935 yards at 2.3 per route with Louisiana Tech in 2022, he jumped to 985 yards at 3.2 per route with the Rebels. His drop rate went down, he forced more missed tackles, and while he was good at each level of the field, he was the master of the intermediate pass: On 28 balls thrown 11 to 20 yards downfield, Harris caught 20 for 416 yards and seven of his eight touchdowns. He's a unique and super scary weapon for a team that has an increasing number of those.

 

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LSU Tigers​

Head coach: Brian Kelly (third year, 20-7 overall)

2024 projection: Ninth in SP+, 9.2 average wins (5.7 in SEC)

In two years with Brian Kelly, LSU has won 20 games, made an SEC championship-game appearance, added another Heisman to the trophy case (Jayden Daniels), beaten Alabama, gone 2-0 against Florida and won a bowl by 56 points. Considering the Tigers were 11-12 in the two seasons before Kelly's arrival, that's a pretty remarkable set of achievements.

It's strangely difficult to figure out where the Tigers program is headed, though. It isn't really making up ground on Georgia, Texas enters the conference in better shape, and upstarts Ole Miss and Missouri have more buzz (for whatever that's actually worth). All of LSU's improvement has come on offense, too: The defense slumped to 52nd in SP+ last season even with one of the most disruptive players in the country (Harold Perkins Jr.). Special teams has been an ongoing issue, and now the offense has to replace Daniels, two first-round receivers and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock.

The Tigers were second in offensive SP+ thanks to Daniels' incredible senior-year breakthrough. Now it appears it's Garrett Nussmeier's turn behind center. He did well against Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but he's a completely different quarterback -- zero scrambles in 78 dropbacks last season, one goal-line rushing attempt -- and he'll have a completely different skill corps. Veteran receivers Kyren Lacy and Chris Hilton Jr. combined explosiveness (18.2 yards per catch between them) with drops issues (10.4% drop rate) last year; they'll likely lead the way along with tight end Mason Taylor and transfers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State). Among 115 players with at least 80 targets, Daniels ranked first in yards per route (4.0). Former LSU receiver Malik Nabers was the only other player above 3.7.

Kelly made a logical decision in promoting quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan to coordinator after Denbrock's departure for Notre Dame. His running back corps is a mix of decent veterans (Josh Williams, John Emery Jr.) and intriguing youngsters (sophomore Kaleb Jackson, freshman Caden Durham), and his line features four returning starters, including two potential All-SEC tackles (Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr.).

This will be a good offense, but it has almost no choice but to regress a bit. The defense will have to improve to match the regression. Kelly made ultra-aggressive former Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker the highest-paid assistant in the country; Baker inherits talent, athleticism and a unit that ranked 106th in success rate and 109th in points allowed per drive. He should know what to do with havoc-friendly linebackers Perkins, Greg Penn III and Bradyn Swinson, but success on the line and in the secondary could depend on transfers. Kelly added tackles Gio Paez (Wisconsin) and Jay'Viar Suggs (Grand Valley State!) up front and safety Jardin Gilbert (Texas A&M) and corner Jyaire Brown (Ohio State) in the back.

My favorite player: LB Harold Perkins Jr. It's a common line that Perkins regressed as a sophomore. Here's what "regression" looks like: 15 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 8 run stops, 3 forced fumbles and a 2.8% individual havoc rate. That was indeed worse than the 4.1% havoc rate he produced as a freshman, but it was still better than just about anyone else's. His ceiling remains stratospheric. Baker has talked about playing him on the inside, and his havoc rate in 2022 was actually higher at inside linebacker (4.8%) than on the outside (4.3%), so he's got potential wherever he lines up.

 

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Missouri Tigers​

Head coach: Eliah Drinkwitz (fifth year, 28-21 overall)

2024 projection: 11th in SP+, 9.8 average wins (5.9 in SEC)

Had a 12-team CFP existed in 2023, Missouri would have been in it. And almost no one would have predicted that even at the end of September. Eliah Drinkwitz's Tigers benefited from some tight, early wins during a bumpy start, but by the end of the season they were simply very good, beating SP+ top-15 teams Tennessee and Ohio State by a combined 50-10 and finishing 11-2.

Now comes the hype. Mizzou ranks second in the SEC in returning production and 17th nationally and has the easiest schedule it will ever have in the new SEC (no Georgia, no Ole Miss, no LSU, strangely easy nonconference slate). Receiver Luther Burden III and quarterback Brady Cook are back, and where holes formed, Drinkwitz tried to aggressively fill them with portal additions. He added Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) and Nate Noel (Appalachian State) to replace 1,600-yard rusher Cody Schrader. He lost two starting offensive linemen and added one proven veteran (SMU's Marcus Bryant) and a five-star sophomore (Oklahoma's Cayden Green). The defensive front six lost seven of 12 regulars, so in come seven veterans.

Cook ranked 20th in Total QBR, completing 66% of his passes and tossing in 482 non-sack rushing yards; he'll have second-year coordinator Kirby Moore calling plays again, and he'll be targeting one of the nation's best receiving corps. You probably know about Burden, but seniors Theo Wease Jr. and Mookie Cooper threw in another 85 catches and 1,129 yards, backups Mekhi Miller and Marquis Johnson (combined: 24 catches, 531 yards) made the most of their opportunities and tight end Brett Norfleet blossomed late in his freshman season. Carroll and Noel are experienced and physical, and they move the chains.

With Blake Baker leaving for LSU, Drinkwitz brought in veteran Corey Batoon, most recently of South Alabama, as defensive coordinator. The Tigers should be set in the edge rushing and linebacker departments. End Johnny Walker Jr. (10.5 TFLs, five sacks) enjoyed a 2023 breakthrough and should get help from transfer Zion Young (Michigan State) and top-25 freshman Williams Nwaneri. At linebacker, Chuck Hicks (9.5 TFLs, 15 run stops) returns, and the portal brought South Alabama's Khalil Jacobs and Miami's Corey Flagg Jr., among others. The questions come at defensive tackle. Three of last year's top four are gone, so Drinkwitz has to hope transfers Chris McClellan (Florida) and Sterling Webb (New Mexico State) are immediate hits alongside senior Kristian Williams; now would be a good time for four-star sophomore Marquis Gracial to break out too.

The secondary returns some dynamite players in nickel Daylan Carnell (six TFLs, three sacks, seven passes defended) and safety Joseph Charleston, but Mizzou lost both starting corners to the NFL and brought in only one transfer, Clemson's Toriano Pride Jr. Depth could be an issue beyond Pride and junior Dreyden Norwood.

My favorite player: WR Luther Burden III. He's a former star recruit, and for five weeks early in 2023 he was the best receiver in the country, catching 47 balls for 697 yards and four scores. Maybe the most impressive thing about Burden is what happened later in the season. With Mizzou finding it could lean more and more on Schrader and the run game, Burden threw himself into blocking and made the most of fewer targets. He saved the season with a late fourth-and-17 catch against Florida and caught the game-clinching TD against Ohio State, too.

Now the spotlight is all on him. And he can pretty much do it all.

He's efficient on easy, short passes and dominant on deep routes. That's a good combo.

 

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A couple of breaks away from a run​

Texas A&M Aggies​

Head coach: Mike Elko (first year)

2024 projection: 13th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.0 in SEC)

In 2011, Mike Sherman's Texas A&M was awesome everywhere but the win column. The Aggies improved from 25th to 11th in SP+, but they blew five double-digit leads (four against ranked opponents) and somehow finished 7-6. Sherman was fired, and Kevin Sumlin came in, installed Sherman signee Johnny Manziel at quarterback and led A&M to its first top-five finish in 56 years.

Jimbo Fisher's last Aggies team jumped from 39th to 16th in SP+, and it might have risen even higher had quarterback Conner Weigman not been injured just four games in. But the Aggies went 0-4 in one-score finishes, and despite leading in every regular-season game, they somehow went just 7-6. A&M elected to pay Fisher lots of money not to coach in College Station anymore.

Elko engineered a spectacular and immediate turnaround at Duke. Now he inherits Weigman and a potential top-15 team.

New offensive coordinator Collin Klein should have fun with the run personnel; three starting offensive linemen return, along with 2022 starting tackle Reuben Fatheree II (injured for most of 2023) and a starting guard from Kansas (Ar'maj Reed-Adams). There are four former blue-chippers at running back, and out wide Weigman has semi-proven seniors in Jahdae Walker and Moose Muhammad III and 6-foot-6 junior Noah Thomas, plus high-level transfers Jabre Barber (Troy) and Cyrus Allen (Louisiana Tech).

Elko's first defensive line includes junior ends Shemar Turner and Shemar Stewart and sophomore tackles DJ Hicks and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, all of whom were top-15 prospects. But there's still going to be a lot of turnover on defense: Of the 18 players with 200-plus snaps last season, only seven return. Elko desperately needed to rebuild the secondary through the portal: He landed eight transfers, including an excellent nickel in Florida's Jaydon Hill, an FCS star in Cal Poly's Donovan Saunders and a recent blue-chipper in Alabama's Dezz Ricks. He also clearly felt he didn't have what he needed in the pass rush, adding juniors Nic Scourton (Purdue) and Cashius Howell (Bowling Green), who combined for 24 TFLs and 19.5 sacks last year.

I'm not going to predict 11 wins and a Heisman -- a la 2012 A&M -- but this feels like a great situation to be walking into, and Elko felt like just the right guy to hire in this situation.

My favorite player: QB Conner Weigman. He managed only 130 dropbacks before a foot injury, but Weigman was well on his way toward a 3,000-yard season last year, and while we don't know how he would have fared, his Total QBR suggests he was playing at a top-10 level. Maybe even top three.

Weigman's recruiting pedigree is strong, and he was just starting to live up to the hype when he went down. In 2024, he gets a chance to make up for lost time.

 

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Oklahoma Sooners​

Head coach: Brent Venables (third year, 16-10 overall)

2024 projection: 15th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (3.6 in SEC)

Godspeed, Brent Venables.

Ever since Nebraska stopped showing up on the home schedule every other year, Oklahoma fans have complained about not having enough big home games on the docket and not playing in enough big games in general. That is, to say the least, no longer a problem. While Texas drew a reasonably navigable slate in its first SEC season, OU avoided Georgia but still drew the teams projected fourth, fifth, eighth, ninth, 11th and 16th in SP+. Among them, Tennessee visits in September, Alabama in November. SP+ projects the Sooners 15th, but even with a weak nonconference slate, they're projected to win only 7.5 games.

This could be a major shock to the system. OU went 10-3 in Venables' second season, beating Texas, rebounding to 17th in SP+ and missing the Big 12 championship game only because of last-second losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. The Sooners improved to eighth in offensive SP+ and 38th in defensive SP+. They'll probably make more progress this season -- at least if quarterback Jackson Arnold is ready for his marquee moment -- but it likely won't show up in the win totals.

Arnold was decent as Dillon Gabriel's backup in 2023. He completed 18 of 24 regular-season passes and was inconsistent in OU's bowl loss to Arizona, going 26-for-45 for 361 yards, with some successful scrambles, seven completions of 20-plus yards and three costly interceptions. Arnold was a top-five recruit and the marquee signing of Venables' 2023 class; his game is full of speed and urgency, and he'll need to click with both a new coordinator -- veteran Seth Littrell replaces new Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby -- and a new offensive line following the loss of 57 of last year's 65 starts (and the addition of four transfers). That could be problematic, but the skill corps won't be. Sophomore running back Gavin Sawchuk is awesome, and three thrilling receivers return: Sophomore Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq and Andrel Anthony combined for 110 catches at 17.5 yards per catch last year.

The defense indeed improved in 2023, but it was still the weak link. The Sooners were nicely disruptive -- second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), 16th in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play), 17th in pressure rate -- but they missed too many tackles, allowed quarterbacks to escape pressure too much and gave up too many big plays. The linebacking corps and secondary are blessed with major playmakers, such as linebacker Danny Stutsman, ball-hawking safety Billy Bowman Jr. and the nickel pairing of Kendel Dolby and Dasan McCullough. They'll need the risk-to-reward ratio to improve, though, and they'll need a new defensive line to hold up. Only two of seven linemen with 200-plus snaps return, and two star transfers, end Caiden Woullard (Miami-Ohio) and tackle Damonic Williams (TCU), will need to come up big. So, too, will recent star recruits such as sophomore end Adepoju Adebawore and freshman tackle David Stone.

My favorite player: ILB Danny Stutsman. Glitches aside, OU's defense is massively disruptive, and Stutsman led this chaotic unit in TFLs (15.5), run stops (25) and forced fumbles (two). He also recorded three sacks (second) and 18 pressures (third) and allowed just a 27% completion rate in coverage (first among those targeted at least 10 times). Oh yeah, and he's the size of a defensive end (6-foot-4, 241 pounds). His return was a massive coup for Venables.

 

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Tennessee Volunteers​

Head coach: Josh Heupel (fourth year, 27-12 overall)

2024 projection: 16th in SP+, 8.6 average wins (4.9 in SEC)

Tennessee was one of the most confusing teams of 2023. The Volunteers boasted one of the better run defenses in the country, plus a top-15 pass rush led by breakout sophomore James Pearce Jr. A trio of running backs combined for 2,092 yards at 6.2 per carry. Give all these things to Josh Heupel, and you expect, what, 11 wins? More? Instead, Tennessee went 9-4 -- 9-1 against teams outside the SP+ top 10, but 0-3 with losses by an average of 24 points against three top-10 teams.

When the Vols underachieved, it was usually because of the offense. Despite Heupel's track record and quarterback Joe Milton's cannon arm, the big pass plays mostly disappeared. Milton averaged just 12.3 yards per completion, and among primary returnees only senior Dont'e Thornton Jr. averaged even 13 yards per catch (on only 13 receptions). The Vols were forced to employ longer drives to score, and despite the solid run game they were 104th in red zone touchdown rate.

With Milton off to the NFL, it's blue-chipper Nico Iamaleava's turn. In his lone start, the Citrus Bowl blowout of Iowa, he completed just one pass over 20 yards and took six sacks, though his three rushing touchdowns solved UT's red zone issues. Will the big plays return? Can Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II (16.2 yards per catch) help veterans Squirrel White, Bru McCoy and Thornton in that regard?

Under Tim Banks, the Vols' defense has ranked in the defensive SP+ top 25 for two straight years. Doing it for a third straight season will depend on a rebuilt secondary. All six of the defensive backs with 300-plus snaps are gone, and I'm not sure Heupel did enough to account for that in the portal. He added three transfers, led by Oregon State corner Jermod McCoy. The defensive front should do its part, at least. Pearce returns, and 320-pounder Omari Thomas leads a sturdy set of tackles. Both starting linebackers are gone, but if the secondary holds up, the defense will too.

My favorite player: James Pearce Jr. One of the most enjoyable aspects of writing about college football is the out-of-nowhere breakout season. Pearce was a three-star recruit who played all of 53 snaps with six tackles as a true freshman. That he managed a pair of TFLs in those snaps was encouraging, but it was impossible to see what was about to happen. In 2023, he recorded 18.5 TFLs with 10 sacks and 10 run stops. He forced two fumbles and nabbed a pick-six in the bowl win. On a per-play basis, he was the most disruptive defender in the country.

Pearce enters 2024 as a genuine "You must account for him in every part of your offensive game plan" presence. Just as we were all predicting a year ago, right?

 

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Kentucky Wildcats​

Head coach: Mark Stoops (11th year, 73-65 overall)

2024 projection: 25th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (3.5 in SEC)

When Mark Stoops took over at Kentucky in 2013, the Wildcats had finished one of the past 28 seasons in the SP+ top 25. They've now done so in five of the past six years. They've bowled for eight straight. This is a sound, sturdy program, one that, if it were in the Big 12, would be an annual conference title (and, therefore, playoff) contender.

The Wildcats are in the SEC, though. Over these past six years, their average SP+ ranking within the conference is 8.5. Their No. 25 projection this year ranks 10th. They're basically the Crystal Palace of the SEC -- Palace have finished 12th, 11th and 12th in the 20-team Premier League over the past three seasons, very good considering the level of competition but not good enough to threaten to make the Champions League. It's a weird place to be.

After ranking 11th or better in defensive SP+ for four of five seasons, UK slipped to 34th last year. The run defense was solid, but the Wildcats were extremely bend-don't-break against the pass. Considering the secondary was almost entirely made of sophomores, that made sense. But now corner Maxwell Hairston (five INTs, seven breakups), nickel Alex Afari Jr. (5.5 TFLs) & Co. are juniors. Might coordinator Brad White be able to ramp up the aggression a bit?

Lord knows he'll get plenty of disruption from his front seven. Linebackers D'Eryk Jackson and J.J. Weaver combined for 17 TFLs last year, and almost no one has the sheer size Kentucky boasts from its line: Deone Walker, Josaih Hayes and Keeshawn Silver average 6-foot-4, 329 pounds and combined for 16.5 TFLs.

The Wildcats scraped out their second top-40 offensive SP+ ranking in three years, thanks primarily to transfers in running back Ray Davis and quarterback Devin Leary. When you rely on stopgaps, however, you end up needing more stopgaps to replace them. Stoops added three quarterback transfers this year, plus running back Chip Trayanum (Ohio State) and receivers Ja'Mori Maclin (North Texas) and Fred Farrier II (UAB). The line returns four starters, and the trio of Maclin, Barion Brown and Dane Key could be good. But there's a lot of hope riding on former top-40 prospect Brock Vandagriff (Georgia). New coordinator Bush Hamdan has to hope that Vandagriff's recruiting profile and tiny 2023 sample (12-for-18 passing for 165 yards, four non-sack rushes for 46 yards) translate to quality full-season play.

My favorite player: DT Deone Walker. He's listed at 6-foot-6, 340 pounds, but he never leaves the game: His 691 snaps were more than twice as many as any other UK lineman. He pursues the ball well -- he made tackles on 9.0% of snaps, more than linebacker J.J. Weaver -- and he was credited with a defensive end's worth of TFLs (11.5) and sacks (7.5). That is a downright unfair combination.

 

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Just looking for a path to 6-6​

Auburn Tigers​

Head coach: Hugh Freeze (second year, 6-7 overall)

2024 projection: 31st in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.0 in SEC)

Hugh Freeze's first year back in the SEC was an exercise in treading water. After averaging 5.7 wins and an SP+ ranking of 35.7 over the past three seasons, the Tigers won six and finished 36th. It feels like 2024 will be another transition year. Freeze fired one coordinator, lost another and brought in newcomers in Derrick Nix (offense) and DJ Durkin (defense). A shaky offense enjoys solid continuity while a solid defense lost 10 of 17 players with at least 250 snaps.

The pass defense lost five of last year's top six defensive backs, plus sacks leader Marcus Harris. Freeze added only two defensive back transfers (veteran Texas safety Jerrin Thompson and Alabama sophomore Antonio Kite), so Durkin will be leaning quite a bit on unproven players. The front six is quite a bit deeper and more proven: Linebackers Jalen McLeod and Eugene Asante combined for 20 TFLs and 10.5 sacks, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford had 5.5 sacks, tackle Jayson Jones (6-foot-6, 340 pounds) is a space-eater and Freeze added a number of power-conference transfers for depth.

The offense's main issue last year: It couldn't pass. The Tigers were 32nd in rushing success rate but 102nd in passing success rate. Running backs Jarquez Hunter and Damari Alston are good, incumbent quarterback Payton Thorne averaged 6.6 yards per non-sack carry, and a veteran line is much more proven at run blocking than pass protection. Between transfers KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) and Robert Lewis (Georgia State), blossoming blue-chip sophomore Caleb Burton III and four incoming blue-chip freshmen, including five-star Cameron Coleman, the receiving corps might see a massive upgrade this season. We'll see how much that helps Thorne, whose numbers were pretty dismal in 2023.

My favorite player: RB Jarquez Hunter. When Hunter got rolling, Auburn had a chance. Not counting games against UMass and Samford, when Hunter averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry, the Tigers averaged 30.2 points per game and went 3-2; when he didn't, they averaged 14.2 PPG and went 1-5. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry after contact and ground out 6.4 yards per carry between the tackles. Just imagine what he could have done if Auburn could throw even a little.

 

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Florida Gators​

Head coach: Billy Napier (third year, 11-14 overall)

2024 projection: 33rd in SP+, 4.7 average wins (2.4 in SEC)

Last season, West Virginia's Neal Brown started near the top of every preseason hot-seat list but instead won nine games and earned a contract extension. You're not fired until you're fired. But after two straight losing seasons, Billy Napier was going to start 2024 pretty high on those lists even if his Gators weren't facing just about the most ridiculous schedule in the history of schedules.

Florida faces four projected top-25 teams in September and October (plus an undoubtedly fired up UCF), then finishes the season with the teams projected first (vs. Georgia), fourth (at Texas), ninth (LSU), eighth (Ole Miss) and 12th (at Florida State), respectively. If the Gators were projected 10th in the country, they would still only have about a 10% chance of going 10-2 or better. It will take a very good team to reach bowl eligibility.

The Gators did have their moments in 2023. Even while slipping to 41st in SP+ -- only their third time finishing outside the top 40 since 1979 -- they beat Tennessee, nearly won at Missouri and gave FSU hell. Their lines are enormous, they've got a proven running back in Montrell Johnson Jr., they've added a couple of solid veteran receivers (Arizona State's Elijhah Badger, Wisconsin's Chimere Dike) to a corps that already featured blue-chip sophomore Eugene Wilson III, their secondary is aggressive and athletic and they have two intriguing-for-different-reasons quarterbacks: senior Graham Mertz, who improved to 35th in Total QBR last year (just high enough to hope for top-20 play this year), and blue-chip freshman DJ Lagway.

Napier still has a chance to save himself, in other words. But I'd recommend stocking up on wins before November.

My favorite player: RB Montrell Johnson Jr. Including two transfers, Florida returns seven linemen who started at least once last year, and their average size is 6-foot-6, 326 pounds. If you fight off those big blockers, you still then have to tackle the 213-pound Johnson, who averaged 3.0 yards per carry after contact and 5.1 yards per carry against a seven-man (or more) box. He also caught 30 passes and topped 95 scrimmage yards in six games (including four of the last five). Losing Trevor Etienne to Georgia stung, but Florida still has an excellent back in the backfield.

 

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South Carolina Gamecocks​

Head coach: Shane Beamer (fourth year, 20-18 overall)

2024 projection: 43rd in SP+, 5.0 average wins (2.0 in SEC)

In his three years at South Carolina, Shane Beamer's Gamecocks have ranked as high as 25th in offensive SP+ and as low as 90th, and they've ranked as high as 26th in defensive SP+ and as low as 55th. Special teams have been great every year, though Beamer just lost ace special teams coach Pete Lembo. In 2022, Beamer's best team lost to two teams that finished with losing records right before beating 11-win Tennessee and Clemson teams.

This is all a way of saying I have no idea what to think about the Beamer era. But I do know last year's team wasn't very good. Both offense and defense finished outside the top 50, per SP+, and with serious attrition on offense, Beamer had to hit the portal pretty hard. He added 14 offensive transfers from all levels. (The most impressive of the bunch to me: Arkansas running back Raheim Sanders, Miami-Ohio wide receiver Gage Larvadain, North Texas running back Oscar Adaway III and FAU right guard Kamaar Bell.) The line returns four starters, but it was very poor last year, and Beamer added three transfers and top-70 freshman Josiah Thompson.

Beamer didn't really nail the quarterback transfer market, though, landing only backups from Auburn (Robby Ashford) and Oklahoma (Davis Beville). Redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers seems likely to start. I like the receiver additions a good amount -- especially if there's a breakthrough coming for five-star sophomore Nyck Harbor -- and Sanders is a legit SEC running back if healthy, but quarterback and O-line remain question marks.

The Gamecock defense enjoys solid continuity. Tackle T.J. Sanders and linebacker Debo Williams create a solid spine, but the run defense lacked disruption, and the secondary was young. The Gamecocks didn't allow a ton of big plays but never knocked opponents off-schedule either. The secondary returns five of last year's top six, but Beamer added six transfers in the front six, led by Georgia Tech DE Kyle Kennard and a pair of Pitt transfers in DT DeAndre Jules and OLB Bangally Kamara.

I can see marginal improvement for both units, though with this schedule marginal won't count for much. The Gamecocks play seven projected top-15 teams; they are a projected favorite of 12.5 or more in four games and a projected underdog of 9.6 or more in eight. While some teams have a broad distribution of possible outcomes this year, SP+ gives South Carolina an 80% chance of winning between four and six games. Any other outcome would be an outlier.

My favorite player: RB Raheim Sanders. His 2023 season was mostly a wash due to injuries, but the 6-foot-2, 225-pound Sanders was one of the nation's better backs in 2022 with 1,443 yards (6.5 per carry, 3.2 after contact) and 10 touchdowns, plus 28 catches for 271 yards. The running back room certainly got an upgrade this offseason

 

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Arkansas Razorbacks​

Head coach: Sam Pittman (fifth year, 23-25 overall)

2024 projection: 46th in SP+, 4.9 average wins (1.9 in SEC)

You know that joke that everybody makes: "If you don't like the weather in [your state], wait a minute"? Well, if you're surprised by how Arkansas is doing, wait a minute. It'll change. The Razorbacks were 10-4 in 2006 and 5-7 in 2008, 21-5 in 2010-11 and 7-17 in 2012-13, 7-27 from 2018 to 2020, then 9-4 in 2021.

Sam Pittman had something going in 2021, but after a step backward in 2022, the Hogs took quite a few more in 2023. The offense disappeared against good defenses, a regressing defense got worse, and after a 2-0 start, Arkansas lost eight of 10.

Now on a fiery hot seat, Pittman brought in 22 transfers and, incredibly, former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. (You probably remember his firing.) Petrino couldn't save Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M last year, but he did still improve the offense. He still knows what he's doing in that regard.

Petrino's first offense could feature a new backfield of quarterback Taylen Green (Boise State) and running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (Utah). Jackson is solid between the tackles, and while Green's passing has been up and down, he's one of the nation's fastest quarterbacks. The line is getting a necessary makeover -- four of last year's top six out, four transfers in -- and the receiving corps maybe should have. Receiver Andrew Armstrong is solid, and tight end Luke Hasz looked good before a season-ending injury, but the only noteworthy addition was USF receiver Khafre Brown.

Coordinator Travis Williams' first Arkansas defense was all-or-nothing: The Hogs had a strong pass rush but allowed 6.9 gains per game of 20-plus yards (130th). Pittman brought in five defensive back transfers, so we'll see if new blood fixes the glitches. But there's massive potential up front, where Albany star Anton Juncaj (21.5 TFLs, 15 sacks last season) joins senior star Landon Jackson.

My favorite player: DE Landon Jackson. Nearly half his tackles were at or behind the line. He had twice as many sacks (6.5) as missed tackles (three). He even dropped into coverage 20 times and broke up a pass. This defense is dealing with lots of turnover, but Jackson is the best kind of known quantity.

 

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Mississippi State Bulldogs​

Head coach: Jeff Lebby (first year)

2024 projection: 68th in SP+, 4.0 average wins (1.1 in SEC)

The 2023 season was always going to be strange in Starkville. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett took over following Mike Leach's death in late 2022. He tried to move too quickly away from Leach's Air Raid, and the new offense was predictably dreadful, averaging 10 points per game against five top-40 defenses. Arnett was pushed out 10 games into a 5-7 campaign.

Now it's time for another transition. Jeff Lebby, most recently Oklahoma's offensive coordinator, has come to MSU to bring the points back. And by both choice and necessity, he's basically flipped most of the starting lineup. No one on the current roster started more than eight games last season. This will be a pretty extreme chemistry experiment.

The most noteworthy newcomers:

• QB Blake Shapen (Baylor) threw for 2,188 yards in eight starts and ranked 92nd in Total QBR.
• RB Davon Booth (Utah State) rushed for 805 yards (6.7 per carry) and six touchdowns.
• WR Kelly Akharaiyi (UTEP) was a play-action threat in a run-heavy offense, catching 48 passes for 1,033 yards (21.5 per catch) and seven touchdowns.
• WR Trent Hudson (NMSU) scored 10 touchdowns among 35 receptions and averaged 15.7 yards per catch.
• WR Kevin Coleman (Louisville) is a former top-70 recruit who caught 26 balls last season.
• C Ethan Miner (North Texas) was an All-AAC lineman per Pro Football Focus.
• CB DeAgo Brumfield (Memphis) broke up 12 passes and made three TFLs.

Lebby landed some younger transfers, too, and some of last year's better players -- running back Seth Davis, defensive tackle Trevion Williams, outside linebacker Donterry Russell -- are only sophomores. This team isn't without talent. But against a top-five schedule with six opponents projected 16th or better, it's hard to see the Bulldogs doing a ton of immediate damage.

My favorite player: WR Kelly Akharaiyi. Lebby coached for Art Briles, Josh Heupel and Lane Kiffin. He wants to stretch defenses out and play with extreme tempo. While we don't know that Akharaiyi can run a full route tree, he can stretch a defense. Nineteen of his 48 receptions gained at least 20 yards, and 27 of his 91 targets were thrown at least 20 yards downfield. He also gained 100-plus yards six times in an offense that wasn't really airing the ball out.

 

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Vanderbilt Commodores​

Head coach: Clark Lea (fourth year, 9-27 overall)

2024 projection: 97th in SP+, 2.8 average wins (0.5 in SEC)

Clark Lea evidently picked a really bad time to go all-in on scouting and development. And it's a shame because he and his staff seem pretty good at it -- good enough to lose 23 transfers to power conference schools in the past three years. Lea's Commodores have been in young-and-building mode for three years. After beating Kentucky and Florida late in 2022 to finish 5-7 and build a little bit of optimism, they plummeted back 2-10 in 2023. This is always a hard job, and it isn't proving any easier in the 2020s.

Enter Jerry Kill, a master of hard jobs. After winning 17 games in two seasons at New Mexico State -- an astounding achievement -- he re-retired as a head coach, and Lea hired him as chief consultant to the head coach. NMSU offensive coordinator Tim Beck left for the same role at Vandy, and five Aggies transfers followed, including quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end/short-yardage back Eli Stowers. They're among 14 offensive transfers.

Last year, the bigger problem was defense. Lea is betting on himself there. He demoted coordinator Nick Howell after the Commodores plummeted to 124th in defensive SP+ (Howell eventually left), and Lea's new coordinator is ... Lea. He brought in six transfers (three young, former blue-chippers and three smaller-school veterans) to team with stellar nickel back CJ Taylor in an otherwise inefficient secondary. He's evidently hoping that the returnees in the front seven, plus Middle Tennessee State tackle Zaylin Wood and former Notre Dame linebacker Prince Kollie (who transferred to Vandy last year) can hold the fort.

My favorite player: QB Diego Pavia. Lea called Pavia a "maniac" at SEC media days. Anyone who watched him at NMSU last year can concur. He threw for 2,973 yards last season and, not including sacks, rushed for 1,073 more. He produced a Total QBR of at least 80 six times -- Vandy quarterbacks have done so twice in the past five seasons (both against Kentucky, strangely enough).

Pavia has his pick-happy moments and runs too much sometimes. But he escapes pressure beautifully, and you can't take your eyes off of him. I have no idea if this NMSU experiment will work, but I'm more excited to watch Vandy's offense than I've been in a while.