✔️Mac 2024 Preview & Breakdown

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MAC 2024 preview: Breaking down Miami, Toledo and other contenders​

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If we're being honest, the MAC is in a pretty odd place at the moment. Once a conference loaded with flashy offenses and coaching up-and-comers, it's now struggling to produce a solid amount of either flash or depth.

Between 2007 and 2017, from Brian Kelly to P.J. Fleck, 11 MAC head coaches (one per year) left for a power conference job. But only one has done so since. While that one guy is absolutely thriving -- Lance Leipold left Buffalo for Kansas in 2021 and has already led the Jayhawks to their two best seasons in 15 years -- he's the only one. Of last year's 12 MAC head coaches, 11 return, but (a) the only one who left (Buffalo's Maurice Linguist) did so for a power-conference co-coordinator job, not a head-coaching job, and (b) of the 11 returnees, only three are currently over .500 at their given schools.

In 2011, MAC teams averaged an SP+ ranking of 85.2. Not including the 2020 COVID-19 season, they've averaged rankings in the triple digits for the past four years. Last season's average (102.2) was the best since 2018, but it was due primarily to three teams, two of which (Toledo and Ohio) have been wrecked by offseason attrition.

The MAC's projected average SP+ ranking this year? 106.4. In terms of returning production, only one team ranks in the national top 40 (Western Michigan), and Toledo and Ohio are indeed both in the bottom 13. Defending champion Miami still brings a lot to the table, and there's always some team that alchemizes chemistry and experience to make a solid run, but it's unclear who that might be. Toledo, with raw recruiting rankings strong enough to offset too much of a stumble? Northern Illinois, with a potentially brilliant secondary and senior-heavy offense? WMU, with experience and a no-longer-rookie head coach? Other?

Let's preview the MAC!

2023 recap​

TEAM	REC. (CONF)	SP+ RK	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	ST SP+
Toledo	11-3 (8-1)	3.7 (53)	25.5 (74)	21.7 (32)	-0.1 (77)
Miami (Ohio)	11-3 (8-1)	2.8 (58)	18.5 (113)	17.7 (12)	2.0 (1)
Ohio	10-3 (6-2)	-1.6 (72)	18.5 (111)	18.1 (15)	-2.0 (131)
Northern Illinois	7-6 (5-3)	-7.5 (93)	18.3 (115)	24.2 (46)	-1.7 (115)
Bowling Green	7-6 (5-3)	-7.8 (94)	21.5 (94)	27.4 (76)	-1.8 (121)
Eastern Michigan	6-7 (4-4)	-12.3 (109)	13.0 (130)	26.8 (67)	1.5 (21)
Ball State	4-8 (3-5)	-14.9 (118)	12.6 (131)	26.3 (65)	-1.1 (97)
Buffalo	3-9 (3-5)	-15.2 (119)	15.3 (125)	29.5 (87)	-1.0 (93)
Western Michigan	4-8 (3-5)	-15.9 (121)	19.1 (109)	33.2 (108)	-1.9 (124)
Central Michigan	5-7 (3-5)	-19.1 (126)	16.8 (119)	34.0 (112)	-1.9 (126)
Akron	2-10 (1-7)	-21.6 (130)	10.5 (132)	30.1 (92)	-2.0 (130)
Kent State	1-11 (0-8)	-26.3 (133)	8.2 (133)	34.8 (119)	0.3 (61)

There were pretty clear dividing lines in 2023. Toledo, Miami and Ohio all won double-digit games; Toledo ripped off an 11-game winning streak that made the Rockets look like the class of the conference, but an incredible defensive effort from Miami (Ohio), which allowed just 11.3 points per game over its final 10 contests, led Chuck Martin's Redhawks to a 23-14 win over the Rockets in the MAC championship.

Meanwhile, only three other teams eked out bowl eligibility, and the MAC's bottom six teams all ranked 118th or worse in SP+.

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2024 projections​

TEAM	SP+ (RK)	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W	SOS RK
Miami (Ohio)	-0.4 (60)	18.9 (111)	19.3 (25)	8.0	6.0	95
Toledo	-5.6 (85)	19.0 (110)	24.5 (42)	7.6	5.1	132
NIU	-7.4 (91)	17.4 (117)	24.9 (45)	6.7	4.8	86
WMU	-11.0 (104)	21.4 (99)	32.4 (96)	6.1	4.7	73
BGSU	-8.8 (94)	22.6 (91)	31.4 (92)	6.1	4.6	69
Ohio	-10.6 (102)	12.6 (133)	23.3 (38)	6.2	4.6	112
Buffalo	-15.6 (119)	13.8 (129)	29.5 (78)	5.3	3.6	102
EMU	-15.2 (117)	13.5 (130)	28.7 (69)	5.4	3.5	124
CMU	-15.6 (118)	18.4 (114)	34.0 (109)	5.1	3.0	131
Ball St.	-17.2 (123)	13.4 (132)	30.6 (89)	4.0	2.9	110
Kent St.	-19.8 (129)	14.7 (126)	34.5 (113)	3.8	2.8	65
Akron	-21.4 (133)	7.3 (134)	28.7 (70)	3.2	2.4	71

In a combined 18 seasons, Martin and Jason Candle have led Miami and Toledo, respectively, to 121 wins and four of the past seven MAC titles. The league's other 10 current coaches have combined for two titles (Mike Neu's Ball State in 2020, Thomas Hammock's NIU in 2021). I guess it fits, then, that Martin and Candle lead the way into 2024, with Hammock's Huskies third.


Miami starts pretty far ahead. The Redhawks do have some turnover to deal with: Of the 10 defenders who saw more than 400 snaps last season, only half return, and their nation's-best special teams unit lost kicker Graham Nicholson to Alabama and coordinator Jacob Bronowski to Pitt. Big-play receiver Gage Larvadain transferred to South Carolina. But from senior end Brian Ugwu to sophomore corner Raion Strader, the Miami defense is still the single-most proven unit in the conference, and somehow quarterback Brett Gabbert is still around to pilot an attack that boasts one of the conference's more experienced offensive lines.

Toledo still has experience and upside with players such as quarterback Tucker Gleason, linebackers Daniel Bolden and D'Andre Ragin and a loaded receiving corps. That could be enough to make another title game run in the MAC's first year without divisions, but losing quarterback Dequan Finn (to Baylor), running back Peny Boone (UCF) and the entire starting offensive line is, well, a lot.

MAC Title Odds​

TEAM	CONF. TITLE %	11+ WINS %	6+ WINS %	RET PROD (RK)	OFF RET	DEF RET
Miami (Ohio)	30.4%	3.2%	95.8%	66.3% (42)	65.4% (52)	67.2% (40)
Toledo	15.9%	2.3%	91.3%	42.0% (122)	32.1% (126)	51.8% (103)
NIU	12.0%	0.2%	79.9%	65.9% (45)	59.2% (75)	72.7% (23)
WMU	8.7%	0.0%	66.4%	73.3% (12)	71.4% (33)	75.3% (17)
BGSU	10.5%	0.0%	65.3%	65.4% (47)	73.4% (25)	57.5% (78)
Ohio	7.6%	0.1%	68.7%	36.9% (127)	33.6% (125)	40.2% (122)
Buffalo	3.6%	0.0%	45.4%	51.1% (103)	44.1% (112)	58.2% (72)
EMU	3.5%	0.1%	45.6%	44.1% (117)	47.7% (106)	40.5% (120)
CMU	2.7%	0.0%	37.1%	58.1% (84)	57.0% (81)	59.3% (69)
Ball St.	2.8%	0.0%	16.9%	46.0% (113)	61.6% (68)	30.5% (131)
Kent St.	1.4%	0.0%	10.9%	56.2% (91)	67.8% (43)	44.6% (115)
Akron	1.0%	0.0%	5.4%	48.9% (106)	35.4% (123)	62.5% (57)

Miami and Toledo get the most benefit of the doubt, but a quartet of particularly interesting hopefuls could make things interesting. NIU, Bowling Green, Ohio and Western Michigan are each more likely to bowl than not.

NIU and BGSU each boast a pair of proven big-play guys -- running back Antario Brown and slot man Grayson Barnes for the Huskies, running back Terion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. for the Falcons -- while Ohio's defense would have been the breakout story of the season if not for Miami's. WMU has dealt with a hard reset over the past two seasons, but the Broncos return most of their offense, and the defense is loaded with juniors and seniors.

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Five best MAC games of 2024​

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the best combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

1. Miami at Toledo (Saturday, Oct. 5). These teams played a pair of enthralling games last season -- a four-point Toledo win in October, followed by Miami's MAC championship revenge. Somehow, those were the first two times they had played since 2011. How is that possible?

Indeed, the MAC is ditching its East and West divisions in favor of a pod structure -- Akron, Buffalo and Kent State in one; Ball State, Miami and Ohio in one; BGSU, NIU and Toledo in one; and the directional Michigans in one -- in which you play the teams in your pod annually and rotate through everyone else. It keeps excellent annual games like NIU-Toledo, Miami-Ohio and all the directional Michigan iterations, and if it also gives us more games between the MAC's two best programs, that's a clear win-win.

2. NIU at Miami (Tuesday, Nov. 19). The best game of the 2024 MACtion slate. (Actually, hold that thought.)

3. Miami at Bowling Green (Friday, Nov. 29). The one drawback of not having divisions is that you could end up needing some particularly strange tiebreakers to figure out who belongs in your conference championship game. This game, between a likely contender and a potential contender, could be huge in that regard.

4. Toledo at NIU (Saturday, Oct. 19). They've played a lot of super-fun games over the past 13 years, but I'm never going to think of Toledo-NIU without first thinking of this game.

5. Bowling Green at Toledo (Saturday, Oct. 26). These two schools are separated by only 25 miles, and this game might pack in the most genuine dislike of any MAC rivalry game. Their past two games against each other were decided by a total of eight points, too.

Five best MACtion games of 2024​

I'm just here to deliver a public service. November's midweek MACtion games are when a lot of us are able to get the most sustained looks at these teams in a given season. They're here to distract us from increasingly cruddy weather and presidential elections, and I thank them for it. Based on the criteria above, here are the five most high-quality MAC contests you'll see on either a Tuesday or Wednesday night in November this year.

1. NIU at Miami (Tuesday, Nov. 19)
2. Ohio at Toledo (Wednesday, Nov. 20)
3. Miami at Ball State (Tuesday, Nov. 5)
4. NIU at WMU (Wednesday, Nov. 6)
5. WMU at Bowling Green (Tuesday, Nov. 12)

Five games on five different nights! Convenient!

 

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Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders​

Miami (OH) Redhawks​

Head coach: Chuck Martin (11th year, 56-62 overall)

2024 projection: 60th in SP+, 8.0 average wins (6.0 in MAC)

Martin's teams don't produce the most aesthetically thrilling ball in the world. If you're looking for someone who enjoys following the analytics on fourth downs, look elsewhere -- only five of 133 FBS teams went for it less than the Redhawks in 2023. He plays things mostly safe and conservative, even though it backfired on him for years in the form of a 5-20 record in one-score finishes from 2014 through late 2018. (They ripped off a seven-game winning streak in such games in 2018-19, and they've gone 7-10 since.) But damn, does he love being Miami's head coach, and damn, did his team play ridiculously hard for him last year. They lost Brett Gabbert to injury in the eighth game of the year, doubled down on defense and special teams and ripped off a five-game winning streak without him.

Attrition in the secondary could be an issue, as last year's top three -- safety Jacquez Warren, corner Yahsyn McKee and nickel Michael Dowell, who combined for 6 interceptions, 22 pass breakups and 8.5 tackles for loss -- are gone. But corner Raion Strader held his own as a freshman, and the Redhawks return a majority of the defensive line and all primary linebackers. They also bring back Bill Brechin, one of the most unlikely defensive coordinator success stories we've seen in a while.

Why unlikely? Because until 2018, Brechin was an offensive assistant! He moved to defensive backs, then took over as coordinator in 2022; in his first year, the Redhawks improved from 82nd to 66th in defensive SP+, and in his second year they leaped to 12th.

Indeed, the defense was good enough to overcome the team's offensive issues. Miami has ranked 113th or worse in offensive SP+ for each of the past two years, and while Gabbert was solid pre-injury in 2023, the Redhawks ranked a dreadful 124th in rushing success rate, getting occasional big plays from Rashad Amos but not enough efficient ones. Amos transferred to Ole Miss. However, all-conference tackles Reid Holskey and Will Jados lead the way up front, and Gabbert still has slot man Cade McDonald and a potential big-play performer in sophomore Javon Tracy to throw to. But they'll need a back like Kenny Tracy or Purdue transfer Dylan Downing to keep them on schedule a bit better.

If Gabbert can remain healthy for all of this coming season, he could end up with more than 50 career starts and 10,000 career passing yards. His final start would come somewhere around five years and four months after his first -- which is to say, his starting career at Miami is basically of kindergarten age. We're cycling away from the effects of the COVID season and the bonus year of eligibility all 2020-21 athletes received. But there are still quite a few Gabberts out there this year and plenty of "Jeez, when does this guy's pension kick in?" jokes you can make if you're so inclined.

My favorite player: DE Brian Ugwu. A disruptive front is just about the greatest luxury a defense can have, and Miami should have it again. The Redhawks blitzed less than anyone in FBS but still ranked 24th in pressure rate and 36th in sack rate because of the duo of Caiden Woullard (now with Oklahoma) and Ugwu (14.5% pressure rate, eight sacks). We'll see if Miami has the size it needs up front, but this defense will be fast and incredibly annoying to face.

 

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Toledo Rockets​

Head coach: Jason Candle (ninth year, 65-35 overall)

2024 projection: 85th in SP+, 7.6 average wins (5.1 in MAC)

Toledo and someone else. That's typically the best way to describe the hierarchy in the MAC. Because of the balance of power often resting in the former MAC West -- and because of a preternatural ability to lose the one game they couldn't in the division race -- the Rockets weren't always in the MAC championship or anything. But they've made it in three of the past seven years, winning twice. And in the good old SP+ spreadsheets, they've been either the best or second-best team in the conference for eight of the past 10 seasons.

After a sudden and steep stumble in 2019, due primarily to an utterly dreadful defense, Candle hired Vince Kehres as defensive coordinator, and that mess got cleaned up quickly. A head coach for two of Mount Union's Division III national titles (and an assistant for a lot more), Kehres took over the Toledo D during the abbreviated 2020 season, and the improvement has been dramatic.

Toledo's defensive SP+ ranking

2019: 121st

2020: 112th

2021: 79th in Kehres' first full season

2022: 67th

2023: 32nd

Last year's unit was good against the run and brilliant against the pass. Granted, it played against only one top-80 offense, according to SP+, but it limited No. 60 San Jose State to 17 points and allowed 17 or fewer points seven times.

The Rockets were 11th nationally in yards allowed per dropback and second in completion rate allowed. Like Miami, they rarely blitzed, but they were sixth in pressure rate and 19th in sack rate, and if a quarterback did get a pass off, there's a solid chance that either first-round draft pick Quinyon Mitchell or Chris McDonald (combined: three interceptions, 23 breakups) was getting a hand on it. Mitchell, McDonald and 290-pound pass-rusher Judge Culpepper (nine sacks) are all NFL bound, so Kehres will have to find further success with depth up front and transfers like Florida's Jadarrius Perkins and West Virginia nickel Lance Dixon in the back. This should be a solid defense, but keeping up this run of improvement is perhaps unlikely.

The offense is starting over. Quarterback Dequan Finn left for Baylor, running back Peny Boone left for UCF (via Louisville) and the entire starting offensive line is gone. Jerjuan Newton, Junior Vandeross III and tight end Anthony Torres anchor what should be a really good receiving corps, and former Georgia Tech quarterback Tucker Gleason could be solid. But he'll need help from the run game, and he'll need, uh, blocking. Until we see the rebuilt offensive line, the Rockets are the conference's No. 2 favorites at absolute best.

My favorite player: DT Darius Alexander. There's nothing more enjoyable than a super active big man, and at 310 pounds, Alexander recorded 15 run stops and four sacks last season. Even without Culpepper, Alexander and 312-pounder Cavon Butler should be an absolute handful up front.

 

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A couple of breaks away from a run​

Northern Illinois Huskies​

Head coach: Thomas Hammock (sixth year, 24-33 overall)

2024 projection: 91st in SP+, 6.7 average wins (4.8 in MAC)

After NIU's MAC title run in 2021, a year after going winless in the shrunken COVID season, I asked a MAC assistant how the hell they pulled that off. His answer: "They were so much more physical than anyone else." Credit Hammock for that. A former running backs coach for Minnesota, Wisconsin and the most Big Ten of all NFL teams (Baltimore), Hammock certainly lets his influences show.

NIU mostly runs on standard downs, and Huskies quarterbacks throw to tight ends and running backs more frequently than the national average. But while the run game had its moments with backs Antario Brown (a member of that 2021 backfield) and Gavin Williams averaging 24 carries and 5.8 yards per carry, the passing game was pretty dismal. And while the secondary was outstanding -- it was 10th in passing success rate allowed -- the Huskies couldn't control the line of scrimmage consistently. Overall, they didn't have a very good Plan B, but Plan A was effective enough to get them back to seven wins despite loads of close losses.

Plan A should be awesome again. Brown is a particularly proven back, and five of last year's top seven linemen return (as does 2022 starter Logan Zschernitz, injured last season). Quarterback Rocky Lombardi is gone, but (a) he didn't set the highest bar, (b) both junior Ethan Hampton and Arkansas-Pine Bluff transfer Jalen Macon have experience, and (c) whoever wins the job will have a lovely mismatch weapon in 6-foot-5 Grayson Barnes (18.4 yards per catch) in the slot.

On defense, two of the top three linemen are gone, but seven defensive linemen with 200-plus snaps return, including end Raishein Thomas (10 TFLs, 17 run stuffs). And if the front can avoid regression, the back of the defense will win games. The secondary returns almost entirely intact and should be the best in the conference. Senior safeties Nate Valcarcel and Jordan Hansen are solid, and corners Javaughn Byrd and Amariyun Knighten both allowed a QBR under 18.0 in primary coverage.

My favorite player: RB Antario Brown. Producing a lot of yards before contact basically says two things: Your blocking was solid, and you have the quickness and decisiveness to take full advantage.

Who were the three national leaders in rushing yards before contact last year? All-American Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State), All-American Cody Schrader (Missouri) and Brown.

Brown has rushed for 2,523 yards and 22 touchdowns in three years. His line should be at least equal to the 2023 version. He is the personification of the Hammock identity, and if he stays healthy he could have another huge year.

 

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Western Michigan Broncos​

Head coach: Lance Taylor (second year, 4-8 overall)

2024 projection: 104th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.7 in MAC)

When you're a first-time head coach, it sometimes takes a little while to get your hires right. When former Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor was named head coach at WMU, he aimed for continuity on defense by sticking with coordinator Lou Esposito, and he aimed for young creativity on offense, bringing in Richmond's Billy Cosh. Cosh engineered a little bit of improvement on offense, then left to take the Stony Brook head-coaching job. Esposito oversaw a little bit of regression on D, then left in March to take over as Michigan's defensive line coach. So Taylor now heads into Year 2 with coordinators Nos. 3-4.

He'll have continuity on the field, at least. WMU brings back its leading passer (Hayden Wolff), rusher (Jalen Buckley) and receiver (Kenneth Womack), plus two all-conference interior linemen (Jacob Gideon and Addison West) on offense. And of the 15 defenders who played at least 250 snaps last season, 12 are back, including aces at end (Corey Walker), outside linebacker (Donald Willis) and corner (Bilhal Kone).

That sure seems like quite a bit of experienced talent, especially if transfers such as receivers Devaughn Mortimer (ULM) and Jordin Parker (New Mexico State) and safety Ryan Raybuck (St. Anselm) deliver on the big-play promise they showed elsewhere. But with all of these players (sans the transfers) and Taylor's first-choice coordinators, WMU still went 4-8 and ranked 121st in SP+ last season. Experience should produce improvement, but how much? At 4-8, you theoretically might have only been a couple of breaks away from a bowl bid, but seven of WMU's losses came by at least 13 points, four by at least 24. New coordinators Walt Bell (offense) and Scott Power (defense) have plenty of coordinator experience but haven't coordinated good units in a bit. In the course of writing this capsule, I've talked myself into and out of the Broncos a couple different times. SP+ thinks they aren't too many breaks from a solid step forward, though.

My favorite player: C Jacob Gideon. He was the anchor of what was probably WMU's best unit, an offensive line that ranked 38th in blown run block rate and 52nd in blown block rate, and he almost certainly played a role in Buckley averaging an excellent 5.5 yards per carry between the tackles.

 

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Bowling Green Falcons​

Head coach: Scot Loeffler (sixth year, 20-35 overall)

2024 projection: 94th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.6 in MAC)

The MAC hasn't quite been the same up-and-coming coach incubator it used to be, but it's become the home for another experiment: What happens when you give a guy lots and lots of patience? You might just be doing it because you can't afford a buyout, but you could be rewarded. Mike Neu surged to a MAC title in his fifth year at Ball State, and Scot Loeffler produced by far his best team a half-decade in at BGSU too.

After a 1-3 start, Loeffler's Falcons pummeled Georgia Tech, won three other games by double digits and nearly upset Toledo. They improved only from 6-7 to 7-6, but they improved from 122nd to 94th in SP+ with their best offense since 2017 and best defense since 2013. And now they return basically 14.5 starters, plus former NIU starting safety CJ Brown.

BGSU had a fun, aggressive defense, ranking first nationally in takeaways and 36th in three-and-out rate. The Falcons were vulnerable to the occasional big pass play, but they could rush the passer beautifully (16th in sack rate). Losing 10-sack edge rusher Cashius Howell hurts, but the line is loaded with seniors, and the secondary, with Brown, safety Darius Lorfils and dynamite corner Jordan Oladokun (four interceptions, 4.4 QBR allowed), should still shine.

The offense was too reliant on big plays and gave up far too many negative ones, but this year's base is experienced -- quarterback Connor Bazelak is back, as are four starting linemen -- and two of the MAC's most explosive skill corps guys, running back Terion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin Jr., return. There might be room for further growth here.

My favorite player: TE Harold Fannin Jr. I'm not saying he's the next Brock Bowers or anything, but BGSU used Fannin in Bowers-like ways -- lots of shorter passes with space to run -- and the 6-foot-4, 230-pounder produced Bowers-like numbers.

Fannin had 44 catches, 623 yards and 6 TDs as a sophomore, and when he caught at least four passes, BGSU averaged 33.3 points per game. (They averaged 20.0 when he didn't.) So throw him the damn ball!

 

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Ohio Bobcats​

Head coach: Tim Albin (fourth year, 23-16 overall)

2024 projection: 102nd in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.6 in MAC)

In European soccer, you're part of the food chain. If a lower-division team produces good results, it might get promoted to a higher division and will almost definitely lose a star player (or many) to higher-level teams. So it gets used to leaning on youngsters and/or plucking star players from teams lower in the pecking order.

That's basically where Ohio finds itself entering Albin's fourth season.

After losing 21 players to bigger conferences and/or the pros, Albin has responded in kind. He's added 17 transfers, and nine are from the FCS level or lower.

There's good talent down there! If Albin and his staff picked the right guys, they could avoid too much regression. Eight of 13 defenders with 300-plus snaps are gone, but six returnees started at least one game as sophomores last season, and end Bradley Weaver and nickelback Adonis Williams Jr. are outstanding players. If a transfer like Blake Leake (Bucknell linebacker) or Dustin Johnson (Northern Colorado safety) clicks, more strong defense is possible.

The bar is much lower on offense, where Ohio has averaged a 95.0 offensive SP+ ranking under Albin. But there's excitement from a pair of small-sample all-stars. In the Bobcats' 41-21 thumping of Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, quarterback Parker Navarro completed 11 of 16 passes and rushed for 71 yards, while redshirt freshman Rickey Hunt gained 133 yards in 18 touches and scored five times. If Hunt really is that good, then with the mobile Navarro -- 41 career rushes, 40 career passes -- and a line loaded with juniors and seniors (including three smaller-school transfers), the ground game could be outstanding. The receiving corps got gutted, however, so when they're off-schedule, things will probably go south quickly.

My favorite player: DB Adonis Williams Jr. There's nothing I enjoy more than a good nickelback's stat line. Williams allowed an 11.4 QBR with an interception and three breakups as primary coverage guy, and he also made 3.5 TFLs, four run stops and, in just 14 pass rush attempts, 1.5 sacks. No one is asked to do a little bit of everything like a nickel, and Williams is a dynamite nickel.

 

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Just looking for a path to 6-6​

Buffalo Bulls​

Head coach: Pete Lembo (first year)

2024 projection: 119th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.6 in MAC)

It's fitting that only one MAC school brought in a new head coach this year ... and he's an old MAC coach. Lembo went 33-29 in five seasons at Ball State. He bailed after going 3-9 in 2015 and became one of the best special teams coordinators in the country at Maryland, Rice, Memphis and South Carolina. Buffalo wobbled all over the place -- from 4-8 to 7-6 to 3-9 -- under first-time head coach Maurice Linguist, and when Linguist left to become defensive co-coordinator at Alabama, it made sense that the school would want an old hand of sorts.

Lembo went with a veteran to run the offense (Dave Patenaude, most recently a struggling offensive coordinator at Georgia Tech) and went the opposite direction with the defense, giving young Miami (Ohio) linebackers coach Joe Bowen his first defensive coordinator job.

Bowen is more likely to quickly succeed. UB was a decent 87th in defensive SP+ last year and returns about half of last year's regulars, including potential solid sophomores in corner Charles McCartherens and linebacker Red Murdock. Star linebacker Shaun Dolac (13 TFLs, 18 run stops, 4.5 sacks in 2022) also returns after missing most of 2023 with injury. He transferred to Utah State in January but recently announced that he's coming back. Get used to stories like that.

The offense collapsed to 125th in offensive SP+ last fall, which makes the loss of every non-offensive line starter a bit more palatable: Things can only get so much worse! But Patenaude isn't guaranteed to make things better either, unless he works some quarterback magic with either 2023 backup CJ Ogbonna or Old Dominion transfer Jack Shields. Sophomore receivers Nik McMillan and Chance Morrow and senior running back Jacqez Barksdale have size and potential (especially McMillan), but they're mostly unproven.

My favorite player: LB Red Murdock. Buffalo allowed 33.5 points per game in its first six contests, then only 21.3 in its last six. One of the differences? Murdock started the last six. The redshirt freshman charged into the lineup after Dolac's injury and created major havoc (9 TFLs, 14 run stops, 6 pressures, 3 forced fumbles). With Murdock and a healthy Dolac, Buffalo could have the best linebackers in the MAC.

College football needs more Reds and more Murdocks, if we're being totally honest.

 

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Eastern Michigan Eagles​

Head coach: Chris Creighton (11th year, 52-68 overall)

2024 projection: 117th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.5 in MAC)

I bet Creighton still thinks about 2022 every now and then. His Eagles shared the MAC West title with Toledo that year, losing the tiebreaker because, after leading 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter, they gave up 10 straight points and stalled out offensively twice in the last two minutes.
Creighton's work in Ypsilanti has been semi-miraculous. EMU had bowled once and hadn't enjoyed a winning season in 21 years before he ripped off an (ongoing) run of six bowls in eight seasons -- but 2022 was his best team and best shot at a MAC title. The Eagles slipped to 6-7 last season, and the gods of returning production haven't been kind in 2024: Only nine starters are back. They've got basically a coin flip's chance at another bowl this fall, and again, for this program, that's still awesome work. But hard jobs are always hard, and you usually end up ruing your missed opportunities.

The defense improved to 67th in defensive SP+, and despite losing basically every linebacker, it could still be solid with the return of end Justin Jefferson, tackle Peyton Price and defensive backs Joshua Scott and Daiquan White and the addition of seven transfers and five jucos. The offense, however, collapsed to 130th in offensive SP+ and will be totally reliant on transfers to rebound. There could be upside in newcomers quarterback Cole Snyder (Buffalo), running back Delbert Mimms III (NC State), tight end Jonathan Odom (Florida) and big tackle Blake Bustard (Wayne State), but this is a big reset. It will probably hold the Eagles back again.

My favorite player: LT Mickey Rewolinski. There weren't many bright spots on offense, but Rewolinski was outstanding. He allowed zero sacks, and among MAC O-linemen with 300-plus pass blocks, he was seventh in blown block rate (1.7%) and sixth in penalties (two). Snyder, or whoever starts at quarterback, will need all the help he can get with such a new set of offensive personnel, but with Rewolinski, he at least won't have to worry about his blind side.

 

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Central Michigan Chippewas​

Head coach: Jim McElwain (sixth year, 29-28 overall)

2024 projection: 118th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (3.0 in MAC)

Time flies: McElwain has already been in Mount Pleasant for more than half a decade.

McElwain's stint at CMU looked like it had so much promise at first. In his first two full seasons, his Chippewas went 8-6 and 9-4, reaching one MAC championship and coming within one point of another. But they went just 9-15 in the past two seasons, and they were close to so much worse -- they were 7-3 in one-score finishes in that span. The offense fell apart in 2022, special teams followed in 2023, and the defense, never particularly good, got worse last fall as well.

It sure seems like the offense has some solid players. Quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. tantalized in late 2022 and early 2023 before missing most of last season with injury. Running back Marion Lukes was a MACtion star, averaging 141 yards in three late midweek contests. Leading receivers Jesse Prewitt III, Tyson Davis and Chris Parker combined to average 15.6 yards per catch. Big right tackle Brayden Swartout was second-team all-conference. If Emanuel can stay healthy and throw just a little, the Chips could score points again.

The defense could have used some new blood, but McElwain stuck with veteran coordinator Robb Akey and added only a couple of transfers. Maybe continuity creates chemistry, and maybe the secondary takes a step forward -- nickel Donte Kent and corner Da'Raun McKinney seem solid -- but CMU hasn't ranked better than 94th in defensive SP+ since 2016. If the Chips bounce back in 2024, it almost certainly will be because of the offense.

My favorite player: QB Bert Emanuel Jr. Here's where I should probably drop a note that these are my favorite players for each team, not the best players for each team. Those two labels often sync up, but sometimes I just get hypnotized by someone's potential.

How could you not be hypnotized by Emanuel? Over the past two years, only three quarterbacks have averaged at least 7.5 yards per (non-sack) carry and 14 yards per completion (minimum 75 dropbacks): Florida's Anthony Richardson, Kansas' Jason Bean and Emanuel. Granted, more than half of Emanuel's action plays have been designed rushes, and he's just 23-for-45 passing. But again: potential.

 

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Ball State Cardinals​

Head coach: Mike Neu (ninth year, 37-56 overall)

2024 projection: 123rd in SP+, 4.0 average wins (2.9 in MAC)

Coaching a hard job is like bailing sand with your hands. You move some of it, but a bunch more slips through your fingers. After a run of injuries early in his tenure, Neu oversaw major improvement on offense. His Cardinals leaped from 116th to 21st in offensive SP+ in two years, peaking during their 2020 MAC title run. Defense remained an issue -- they averaged a 109.2 defensive SP+ ranking from 2016 to 2021 -- but under coordinator Tyler Stockton, they jumped to 89th in 2022, then 65th last year ... while the offense crashed all the way to 131st.

The offense should improve this fall, but now Neu has to replace almost every defensive lineman and defensive back. And Stockton left for Boise State. Plug a leak here, and another one springs over there.

If the Cardinals surprise, it likely will be because the offense surged again. Quarterback Kiael Kelly returns after spending part of spring in the transfer portal, and while last year's top three running backs are gone, the line returns five guys with starting experience, and the receiving corps is intriguing. Slot man Qian Magwood is basically a running back for all the behind-the-line passes he fields (which makes his 8.7 yards per catch seem impressive), and Neu added an intriguing downfield threat in Eastern Illinois' Justin Bowick. There's almost nowhere to go but up, but healthy improvement is on the table.

Defensively ... well ... opportunity abounds. Sixteen players saw at least 200 snaps, and only three return. That Neu added only four transfers and one juco player (340-pound tackle L'Cier Luter) suggests maybe he likes what he has coming back? Possibly? That's the most positive spin I can give. Defensive regression will likely offset whatever improvement the offense can muster.

My favorite player: QB Kiael Kelly. Kelly's job was unique last year: 41% of his action plays were designed rushes -- and for good reason: He averaged 6.1 yards (non-sack) -- and 36% were behind-the-line passes. If you squint, he was basically an option quarterback. He alone should assure that the run game is decent, and if he can pass just a little bit (his completion rate on passes thrown beyond the line: a ghastly 51%), this offense should be worth watching.

 

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Kent State Golden Flashes​

Head coach: Kenni Burns (second year, 1-11 overall)

2024 projection: 129th in SP+, 3.8 average wins (2.8 in MAC)

From 2019 to 2022 under Sean Lewis, Kent State went 22-21, bowling twice and winning one. On one hand, that feels like the definition of mediocrity. On the other, three .500 or better seasons in four years at Kent State, where the Golden Flashes hit that mark only three times in 31 years before 2019, was pretty spectacular.

Even within the MAC, this is a tough place to win. If that wasn't evident before, it certainly was when Lewis left, lots of his players followed (Kent State was last in returning production), and the Flashes plummeted to 1-11 and 133rd (out of 133 teams) in 2023. The boulder rolls down the hill in a heartbeat.

On the bright side, Burns' second year will almost certainly go better than his first! And as long as the Flashes beat FCS' Saint Francis in Week 2, it definitely won't go worse!

One more bright spot: Virtually anyone who will do something good in a Kent State uniform this year is an underclassman. Sophomore receiver Chrishon McCray is outstanding, and sophomore guard Chris Farrell might be the second-best player on the team. Junior defensive end Stephen Daley made 12 run stops last season too. Obviously having good underclassmen means something different in the transfer portal era, but it's a start. Last year was the ultimate Year 0 experience for Burns -- even Kent State alum Nick Saban probably wouldn't have been able to fend off a collapse -- but it could take a while before there's any hope for a return to yesteryear. (And by "yesteryear," I mean 2022.)

My favorite player: WR Chrishon McCray. He might already be the MAC's best receiver. Yards per route is a great short-hand stat for receiver quality -- it combines how frequently you're targeted with how well you do when you're targeted -- and McCray was second to only Miami's Gage Larvadain, and just ahead of the definitively awesome Fannin, last year.

There's no telling if McCray will have a quarterback capable of getting him the ball as much as he deserves -- Tommy Ulatowski? Devin Kargman? Troy transfer JD Sherrod? -- but he's great.

 

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Akron Zips​

Head coach: Joe Moorhead (third year, 4-20 overall)

2024 projection: 133rd in SP+, 3.2 average wins (2.4 in MAC)

Writing a MAC preview is a fun opportunity to type the words "hard job" over and over again. It's unavoidable! There are some hard jobs here! And Akron is among the hardest.

Moorhead likely thought he was getting a chance to just coach ball again after stints as an SEC head coach (at Mississippi State) and, even more stressful, as a Mario Cristobal assistant (at Oregon). He was getting pretty close to his Western Pennsylvania roots too. He hired veteran Tim Tibesar to coach his defense, he made what seemed like some astute transfer additions and he got to work. And two years in, he has four wins.

One of the progenitors of the run-pass option craze, Moorhead oversaw an offense that ranked 122nd in passing success rate last season, and now he has to replace his leading passer, two leading rushers, three leading receivers and three starting linemen. The defense ticked upward in 2023 and boasts one of the most experienced front sixes in the conference. End C.J. Nunnally IV and linebackers Antavious Fish and Bryan McCoy are good, and the Zips ranked a solid 37th in rushing success rate allowed.

The secondary must replace five of last year's top six, but nickel Darrian Lewis is a keeper, and young corners Devonte Golden-Nelson and Oregon transfer Daymon David could be. Tibesar has some pieces to work with, but the offense appears to be as far away as ever. Veteran Cal transfer Ben Finley could be a boon at quarterback, but there are almost no known quantities. Quarterback Tahj Bullock is an iffy passer but the only semi-proven runner on the team -- no RB had more than 14 rushing yards last season. For that matter, no one on the roster had more than 188 receiving yards either.

My favorite player: DE C.J. Nunnally IV. Only nine FBS defenders combined at least 13 TFLs, 7 sacks and 16 run stops in 2023, and Nunnally was one of them. The juco transfer was an immediate hit. He leads the way for a run defense that has some legitimate spice to it, though he could use some help in the pass rush department. (And he could use an offense that scores a few more points.)