✔️Conference USA 2024 Preview & Breakdown

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Conference USA preview: Breaking down Liberty, Western Kentucky and other contenders​

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Let's review.

In 1996, Conference USA began sponsoring football with a lineup of Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss and Tulane. It added East Carolina in 1997, then Army in 1998 and UAB in 1999. TCU, bailing on the WAC, joined in 2001. USF, which had been a non-football member, joined for football in 2003.

In 2005 came the first of three total regeneration efforts. Cincinnati, Louisville and USF left for the Big East, Army went back to being independent, and TCU bailed for the Mountain West; so aboard came Marshall, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, UCF and UTEP. The center actually held for a moment, but realignment never really stops for long. Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF left for what would become the AAC in 2013, then ECU, Tulane and Tulsa followed in 2014.

It was time to reload once more: CUSA raided the Sun Belt for FAU, FIU, MTSU, North Texas and Western Kentucky. It took Louisiana Tech and UTSA from the WAC and brought in football startups ODU in 2014 and Charlotte in 2015. That brought membership to 14. UAB dropped football in 2015 in a nasty political game, then wised up and brought it back in 2017. Fourteen again.

That held until the next time the AAC got raided. It nabbed Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA in 2023. Searching for some semblance of stability (and geographic sense), Marshall, Old Dominion and Old Dominion also left for the Sun Belt. Regeneration No. 3! Indies Liberty and New Mexico State came aboard, and Jacksonville State and Sam Houston made the jump up from FCS. Kennesaw State is joining this year. Delaware and Missouri State will do the same in 2025.

Next year, FBS will feature 136 teams. Conference USA will have, at one point or another, housed 32 of them. It is the Ellis Island of FBS. Poor, tired, huddled masses, et cetera. It is a genuine conference for the USA.

It might not have much of a conference race in 2024, however. Liberty was far and away the class of the conference last year, winning seven of nine CUSA games by at least 13 points and rolling to a 49-35 win over NMSU in each team's first CUSA Championship. The Flames were able to go unbeaten and skate around having a dreadful run defense, but that caught up to them in a 45-6 decimation at Oregon's hands in the Fiesta Bowl. They had one of the weakest schedules in the country and one of the most delightful offenses ... just as they probably will this year. And unless Western Kentucky or Jacksonville State springs a surprise, it's hard to see someone toppling LU this time around either.

2023 recap​

TEAM	REC. (CONF)	SP+ RK	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	ST SP+
Liberty	13-1 (9-0)	8.0 (33)	36.2 (16)	26.3 (64)	-1.9 (123)
J'ville St.	9-4 (6-2)	-1.6 (71)	24.8 (76)	25.9 (57)	-0.6 (86)
NMSU	10-5 (7-2)	-1.8 (73)	23.3 (83)	25.8 (56)	0.7 (51)
WKU	8-5 (5-3)	-2.0 (74)	28.7 (53)	30.1 (91)	-0.7 (88)
MTSU	4-8 (3-5)	-9.5 (101)	21.5 (93)	30.0 (90)	-1.0 (92)
La. Tech	3-9 (2-6)	-12.9 (112)	22.1 (89)	36.0 (122)	1.0 (41)
Sam Houston	3-9 (2-6)	-13.8 (115)	16.0 (120)	28.8 (85)	-1.1 (96)
UTEP	3-9 (2-6)	-16.2 (122)	16.9 (118)	32.0 (101)	-1.2 (100)
FIU	4-8 (1-7)	-21.2 (128)	16.0 (121)	35.6 (120)	-1.6 (109)

CUSA might have only gotten four teams into bowls, and two of them (Liberty and NMSU) may have lost by a combined 82-16, but the other two bowls, both wins, were delightful. Thanks to a lack of bowl-eligible teams, Jacksonville State was able to score a bid to the New Orleans Bowl in its first FBS season, and the Gamecocks beat Louisiana in overtime.

Two days later, in the Famous Toastery Bowl in Charlotte, WKU, playing without starting quarterback Austin Reed, spotted Old Dominion a 28-0 lead just 17 minutes into the game before Caden Veltkamp hopped out of the transfer portal, threw five touchdown passes and led a shocking comeback.

This is what a 28-point, "don't lead for a single play until you kick the game-winning field goal in overtime" comeback looks like on the ol' win probability charts.

With WKU leading the way in the returning production department (and last year's runner-up NMSU getting absolutely wrecked by attrition), it appears the HIlltoppers, winners of at least eight games in four of the last five seasons, might be first in line to challenge Liberty. But with quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley returning and a host of transfers arriving to prop up the defense, the Flames still have to be considered a healthy favorite.

Conference USA Title Odds​

TEAM	CONF. TITLE %	11+ WINS %	6+ WINS %	RET PROD (RK)	OFF RET	DEF RET
Liberty	50.1%	41.7%	99.9%	61.7% (68)	62.5% (63)	60.8% (63)
WKU	25.9%	2.8%	97.3%	60.2% (76)	62.1% (65)	58.3% (74)
J'ville St.	7.3%	0.1%	69.7%	50.4% (103)	55.1% (88)	45.7% (113)
Sam Houston	5.0%	0.0%	42.9%	69.4% (25)	81.1% (12)	57.7% (78)
MTSU	3.6%	0.0%	42.1%	46.5% (111)	51.0% (96)	42.1% (120)
NMSU	3.2%	0.0%	42.1%	38.4% (128)	50.8% (98)	26.0% (133)
La. Tech	1.8%	0.0%	30.8%	43.5% (120)	46.4% (108)	40.6% (122)
FIU	1.7%	0.0%	33.7%	67.7% (34)	75.7% (20)	59.7% (69)
UTEP	1.4%	0.0%	11.4%	43.9% (118)	42.9% (118)	45.0% (114)
Kennesaw St.	N/A	0.0%	7.2%	57.2% (87)	51.3% (95)	63.1% (54)

Basically, Liberty and WKU are in solid shape, and either two or three teams from the cluster of Jacksonville State, Sam Houston, MTSU, NMSU, FIU and Louisiana Tech will hit the six-win mark. UTEP appears to be starting over, and ... hey ... it's good to have you at the party, Kennesaw State.

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Five best CUSA games of 2024​

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. My goal for this section is to look at the games most likely to bring both quality and a tight finish to the table, but that's a problem when your conference leader is a projected favorite of at least 15 points in seven of eight conference games, and your second-best team is a double-digit favorite in seven of eight.

Basically, you're going to want to watch a bunch of Jacksonville State games this year.

NMSU at Sam Houston (Saturday, Sept. 28). The best NMSU team in six decades indeed got portaled to hell this offseason. If the Aggies are to make a surprise run to another CUSA title game this year under Tony Sanchez, this game should tell us what they're capable of.

NMSU at Jacksonville State (Wednesday, Oct. 9). Rich Rodriguez brought in a number of speedy new weapons to get the Gamecocks' offense up to speed. This should be a fun midweek contest.

MTSU at Jacksonville State (Wednesday, Oct. 23). Another midweek contest! Like I said, you'll be watching quite a bit of the Gamecocks. We'll see what kind of challenge they get from Derek Mason's first Blue Raiders squad.

Western Kentucky at Liberty (Saturday, Nov. 23). The obvious game of the year. I wish it was scheduled for sometime in October because the odds of us watching these teams play in Lynchburg, Virginia, then watching them play again in Lynchburg in the conference title game are pretty solid. Alas.

Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (Saturday, Nov. 23). The Relative Newbies Bowl! Bowl eligibility could be on the line for either one or both teams.

 

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Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders​

Liberty Flames​

Head coach: Jamey Chadwell (second year, 13-1 overall)

2024 projection: 41st in SP+, 10.2 average wins (6.8 in CUSA)

Oregon was such a terrible matchup. Liberty eked out the Group of Five's final New Year's Six bowl bid last year, ranking just ahead of SMU thanks to an unbeaten record (and despite just about the worst strength of schedule in the country). The Flames were absolutely dynamite offensively thanks to Salter (2,876 passing yards, 1,154 pre-sack rushing yards) and Cooley (1,401 rushing yards, 16 TDs), and they proved it early in the Fiesta Bowl, gaining 122 yards on their first 15 snaps. But the defense had holes: They ranked 101st in rushing success rate and 99th in red zone touchdown rate allowed, and while their pass defense was aggressive, it gave up a few big plays.

Playing the best, most efficient offense in the country was a doomed experiment. Liberty forced a field goal on Oregon's first drive and a three-and-out on the second. But the offense battled some bumps, and the defense fell apart. Oregon scored touchdowns on six straight drives, and that was that. Blowout.

Salter briefly entered the transfer portal before electing to return. He and Cooley will be working with an offensive line going through growing pains -- two solid starters return (center Jordan White and tackle Xavior Gray), but two awesome guards are gone -- but it's really hard to worry too much. This is quite possibly the best backfield in the Group of Five universe, and on the rare occasion that Salter has to pass, he'll have some interesting options in big-play slot man Treon Sibley and transfers Tyson Mobley (Coastal Carolina), Julian Gray (NC State) and Donte Lee Jr. (Shaw).

This feels like more than enough for both Salter and Chadwell, who has, per SP+, fielded three top-30 offenses in the last four years. The defense, however, bears the burden of proof.

Chadwell made as many upgrades as possible, adding seven power-conference transfers to the front six, plus G5-level starters in linebacker Teylor Jackson (East Carolina) and corner Dominick Hill (Temple). This was a young defense, as evidenced by the return of six sophomores or juniors who logged at least 465 snaps. There should be more than enough talent here to make the stops to win CUSA, but if the Flames get another shot at the big-time -- by, say, going 13-0 and earning a CFP bid -- we'll see if Chadwell's fixes are enough to make them competitive.

My favorite player: QB Kaidon Salter. Just an absolute delight to watch. Booted from Tennessee, he's made the most of his second chance. And Chadwell's offense couldn't be more perfect for him. He averaged barely 20 passes per game but still threw for more than 200 yards seven times -- including an incredible 20-for-25, 319-yard performance in the CUSA Championship -- and he also rushed for at least 75 yards seven times, including a 160-yard explosion in a tight win over MTSU.

Per Total QBR, Salter was by some margin the best quarterback in the Group of Five. He was better than most power conference QBs, too.

Salter finished ninth overall in Total QBR, ahead of such luminaries as Caleb Williams, Jalen Milroe, Jordan Travis and Drake Maye. And he's a Flame for another year.

 

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers​

Head coach: Tyson Helton (sixth year, 40-26 overall)

2024 projection: 60th in SP+, 8.2 average wins (6.0 in CUSA)

Tyson Helton made an identity change look shockingly easy. I bet you can spot it.

Helton's five seasons at WKU:

• 2019: 9-4 record, 111th in offensive SP+, 41st in defensive SP+
• 2020: 5-7, 120th in offensive SP+, 65th in defensive SP+
• 2021: 9-5, seventh in offensive SP+, 100th in defensive SP+
• 2022: 9-5, 39th in offensive SP+, 94th in defensive SP+
• 2023: 8-5, 53rd in offensive SP+, 91st in defensive SP+

Three years ago, Helton hired Houston Christian offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to spruce up a moribund Hilltoppers attack, and poof, it was spruced up. WKU improved by 113 spots in offensive SP+ as HCU transfer Bailey Zappe threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns (often to fellow HCU transfers). The effects diminished a bit as Kittley (Texas Tech), Zappe (NFL) and others left, but with Division II transfer Austin Reed throwing for more than 8,000 yards over two seasons, the WKU offense has remained one of the better units in the CUSA.

Now it's time for more turnover. Reed is gone and longtime SEC OL coach Will Friend is coming aboard as primary coordinator. If he can spruce up a dismal run game while offering the new starting QB of choice -- either Texas State transfer TJ Finley or one of sophomores Caden Veltkamp and Turner Helton -- the same wide open passing options, the vision makes sense. WKU ranked 121st in rushing success rate last year, meaning Reed was facing a ton more obvious passing situations. The line could improve with three returning starters and two Sun Belt imports, and between slot man Michael Mathison (injured in 2023), bowl star Dalvin Smith, sophomore Easton Messer and Alabama State transfer Kisean Johnson, there are the makings of a solid receiving corps here. But be it starting RB Elijah Young or someone else, someone's got to gain more on the ground.

The defense has slowly improved under third-year coordinator Tyson Summers. The secondary was fun and aggressive despite a lack of help from the front six, either in terms of run defense or turning blitzes into sacks. Of the 16 players who saw at least 350 snaps last year, nine are gone, including five of eight DBs, but Helton loaded up on transfers, including NMSU tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr., smaller-school tackling-machine linebackers Terreance Ellis (Alcorn State) and Chandler Matthews (Limestone) and SEC corners Demarko Williams (Ole Miss) and Kent Robinson (Texas A&M). Returning senior corner Anthony Johnson Jr. is excellent, though the Hilltoppers could particularly miss safety Kendrick Simpkins.

My favorite player: QB TJ Finley. Finley's story is a modern one. WKU will be his fourth school in five years; he couldn't find a niche at LSU or Auburn, so he landed at Texas State in 2023, where he threw for 3,439 yards in GJ Kinne's attack. But after the Bobcats landed a transfer commit from Arizona's Jayden de Laura, Finley left. Texas State's pain is WKU's gain. Finley has a quick release like Reed...

 

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A couple of breaks away from a run​

Jacksonville State Gamecocks​

Head coach: Rich Rodriguez (third year, 18-6 overall)

2024 projection: 93rd in SP+, 6.3 average wins (4.4 in CUSA)

Rich Rod just keeps going. The 61-year-old has taken Glenville State to an NAIA national title game, changed football with his zone read and spread concepts at Tulane and Clemson, nearly took WVU to the BCS Championship and took Arizona to the Pac-12 Championship. (He also spent three fruitless years at Michigan, but we don't really need to focus on that.) And in his first try at Jacksonville State, he brought the Gamecocks to, and won, a bowl game with one of the best first-year FBS performances in recent memory.

Best FBS debuts since 2008:

1. 2022 James Madison (8-3, 43rd in SP+)
2. 2014 Georgia Southern (9-3, 65th in SP+)
3. 2023 Jacksonville State (9-4, 71st in SP+)
4. 2014 Appalachian State (7-5, 89th in SP+)
5. 2012 UTSA (6-4, 91st in SP+)

He has won 181 games as a head coach over parts of five different decades. That's a pretty incredible run.

Rodriguez's 2024 team won't look much like the 2023 edition. The offense is replacing six starters but welcomes a number of intriguing transfers, including quarterbacks Tyler Huff (Furman) and Zion Turner (UConn), running backs Michel Dukes (USF) and Andrew Paul (Georgia) and receivers Flip Rudolph (UAB) and Brannon Spector (Clemson). Incumbents like all-conference guard Clay Webb and tight end Sean Brown are still around, too. Rich Rod offenses always run the ball well, but the bar is low for the passing game. Huff, who threw for 1,869 yards and ran for 591 while nearly leading Furman to the FCS semis last year, is a particularly interesting addition.

Maybe the most important newcomer is Luke Olson. The former Tulsa defensive coordinator takes over for Zac Alley, who moved to Oklahoma after leading JSU to a No. 59 ranking in defensive SP+. The Gamecocks were outstanding against the run and good enough against the pass; Olson runs an aggressive 3-3-5, but he'll be attempting to clear a high bar despite massive turnover. In the front six, 11 players recorded at least 200 snaps, and only three return. The secondary has promise -- in safety Fred Perry and corners Derek Carter and Jabari Mack, it got by with a few sophomores who are now potential junior stars. Rodriguez found a potential ball hawk in safety transfer Kam Snell from Division II Gannon, too.

My favorite player: S Fred Perry. At just 5-foot-10, 200 pounds, Perry combined for seven run stops and three TFLs with seven pressures, and in 17 snaps as the primary coverage guy, he allowed a QBR of just 2.0. He can do a little bit of everything.

 

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Just looking for a path to 6-6​

Sam Houston Bearkats​

Head coach: KC Keeler (11th year, 88-36 overall)

2024 projection: 110th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.9 in CUSA)

Like Rodriguez, 64-year-old K.C. Keeler has put together a magnificent career. He led Rowan to five Division III championship games in the 1990s and reached four FCS title games at Delaware and SHSU. His Bearkats won the Spring 2021 FCS title over South Dakota State. (Even before the 2021 run, he cracked ESPN's top 150 greatest coaches list.)

SHSU slipped to 5-4 in 2022, however, just as it was preparing for a move to FBS, and then lost its first eight games of 2023. But after a series of gut-wrenching defeats in October, they went 3-1 in November. The offense finally perked up enough to help a solid defense, and two of the primary reasons for late improvement, receivers Noah Smith and Simeon Evans, return. So does sixth-year man Ife Adeyi, who caught the title-winning touchdown pass in 2021 and has 2,041 career receiving yards but missed most of 2023 with injury. The run game went nowhere last year, but basically every running back and lineman return, and the line has good size. SHSU will need a new QB after losing Keegan Shoemaker, but there are interesting options in Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer and returnee Grant Gunnell.

As with JSU, a solid defense replaces a lot. Of the 13 players with at least 300 snaps, only five return. The spine of the defense should be strong with linebacker Kavian Gaither and safety Caleb Weaver, and edge rusher Issiah Nixon is good, but Keeler felt the need to bring in four transfer tackles, including three 300-pounders, and a couple of veteran DBs, including Liberty's Jaylon Jimmerson.

You never know if a late burst of improvement is something real or a smokescreen, but Keeler has fielded a lot of good teams in his coaching life, so he gets the benefit of the doubt. Win some tossups, and the Kats could bowl this fall.

My favorite player: LB Kavian Gaither. Gaither led SHSU with 13 run stops last year, but he was equally good in coverage: His man was targeted 10 times, and he allowed just four completions for 17 yards. He also sealed the Bearkats' first CUSA win in style.

 

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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders​

Head coach: Derek Mason (first year)

2024 projection: 113th in SP+, 4.9 average wins (3.7 in CUSA)

The last time someone other than Rick Stockstill led MTSU onto the field, we were only halfway through the Harry Potter movie series. We were still a year away from Rihanna's "Umbrella." Robert Downey Jr. hadn't played Iron Man yet.

Stockstill took over in 2006 and did a thoroughly decent job for 18 years. He won a Sun Belt title and took the Blue Raiders to 10 bowl games, winning four. MTSU often scared power-conference opponents and waxed Miami in 2022. You could do better, but you could also do much worse, and that's a weird spot for successor Derek Mason. Mason, too, has been thoroughly decent -- not great, not terrible -- through the years as defensive coordinator and as head coach at Vanderbilt.

Mason's first MTSU team ... could be decent! But probably not great! Veteran offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder inherits a solid dual-threat QB in Nicholas Vattiato and a unique weapon in 6-foot-4 slot man Holden Willis. He might be able to unlock consistency from transfers Gamarion Carter (Vanderbilt) and Omari Kelly (Auburn), too: The two caught only 14 passes in two seasons, but among them were gains of 80, 41, 40, 39 and 25. The run game could be an issue -- MTSU ranked 84th in rushing success rate, and four starting O-linemen are gone.

Defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, a veteran's veteran -- the 30-year assistant was the DC for both the Houston Cougars and the XFL's Houston Roughnecks, among others -- takes over a unit that has ranked between 90th and 115th in defensive SP+ for five straight years. Last year's MTSU defense was confusing: The Blue Raiders blitzed nonstop but rarely recorded sacks and really only succeeded at big-play prevention. That probably says very good things about returning corner Tyrell Raby and nickel De'Arre McDonald, but Stewart's got a pretty big repair job to do in the front six.

My favorite player: Slot receiver Holden Willis. In 2023, eight receivers combined at least 65 targets with a catch rate of at least 70% and averaged at least 15 yards per catch. It's a list that included stars like LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. and Michigan's Roman Wilson, and only two of eight return: Utah State's Jalen Royals and Willis. He reached a unique place in terms of combined efficiency and explosiveness.

 

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New Mexico State Aggies​

Head coach: Tony Sanchez (first year)

2024 projection: 114th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.5 in CUSA)

One of the coolest stories in college football ended abruptly. In 2022, Jerry Kill inherited an NMSU team that had gone 8-30 over the previous four seasons and went 7-6 in his first year, then one-upped himself last fall. After a 2-3 start, his Aggies won eight games in a row, clinching a spot in the CUSA Championship and absolutely pummeled Hugh Freeze's Auburn Tigers. It was the best two-month run for the Aggies since the 1960s, if ever, and it was an incredible reward for the folks in Las Cruces who show up to games, year after year, knowing they probably won't win many of them.

Then everything sputtered out. NMSU lost to Liberty by 14, then to Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl by 27. A week later, the 62-year old Kill resigned, basically citing exhaustion. "This year has been tremendously difficult for me, and I gave it everything I had physically, mentally and emotionally," he said. "New Mexico State holds a special place in my heart as it marks the end of my journey as a head coach."

Tony Sanchez, an NMSU grad who nearly succeeded at UNLV but couldn't get over the hump, was a logical hire as Kill's successor, but he's having to replace NMSU's top two QBs, top two RBs, top six defensive linemen, seven of eight leading receivers, and 11 of 13 DBs. NMSU got absolutely wrecked by transfers, but a good offensive line somehow returns intact, and between small-sample all-star Monte Watkins (67 touches, 649 yards) and Buffalo transfer Mike Washington, a good rushing option should emerge. Lord only knows which transfer QB will line up behind center -- Santino Marucci (Wake Forest)? Jake McNamara (UTEP)? Deuce Hogan (Kentucky)? One of two JUCOs? -- or who will be catching passes.

Defensively ... I have no idea. Linebackers Buddha Peleti, Sone Aupiu and Tyler Martinez are good, but I just listed nearly every known defensive entity. NMSU fielded maybe its best defense ever last fall, and nearly every reason for that quality is gone.

My favorite player: LT Shiyazh Pete. The O-line could be NMSU's saving grace, and Pete, a 6-foot-8, 320-pound junior, is the best of the bunch. He allowed one sack and committed just three penalties from the left tackle position and was, predictably, first-team all-CUSA.

 

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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs​

Head coach: Sonny Cumbie (third year, 6-18 overall)

2024 projection: 122nd in SP+, 4.8 average wins (3.3 in CUSA)

I guess there are two ways to look at Louisiana Tech's 2023 performance.

On one hand, the Bulldogs extended a dire stretch that has seen four of their five worst performances since 2008. On the other hand, they fielded their best team in three years!

After Tech collapsed from 10-3 in 2019 to 3-9 in 2021, Skip Holtz was fired, freeing him to fulfill his destiny as a USFL head coach. The Bulldogs have gone 3-9 twice more under former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie, and if there has been recent improvement, it's obviously meager. The defense improved in 2023 (well, it got slightly less bad), and the special teams unit was legitimately solid. But the offense, with its fifth different leading passer in five years, continued to struggle for consistency.

With Hank Bachmeier's departure, we'll see yet another new leading passer, be it junior Jack Turner (1,017 yards in 2023), redshirt freshman Evan Bullock or former Southern Miss QB Ty Keyes. With Marquis Crosby (918 yards in 2022) returning from injury and a number of speedy transfers coming aboard -- running back Donerio Davenport (Texas State), receivers Jeremiah Ballard (UTEP), Jimmy Holiday (WKU) and Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim (Bowling Green) -- the skill corps could be quite a bit better. The line lost three starters but added three (from ULM, Grambling and Stephen F. Austin) from the portal.

On defense, transfers will dictate how much improvement is possible. Returning linemen Mykol Clark and Zion Nason are solid up front, but the secondary lost its two best DBs, and some combination of 2023 backups (namely, intriguing sophomore Jhamal Shelby Jr.), transfers Pig Cage (UTSA) and Blake Thompson (Iowa State) and four JUCOs will have to produce. Linebacker transfers CJ Harris (Kent State) and Sifa Leota (North Texas) should be keepers, at least.

My favorite player: RB Marquis Crosby. He missed almost all of 2023 with injury, but he was a talisman in 2022. In the six games in which he averaged over 5.0 yards per carry that year, Tech went 3-3 and averaged 39.2 points per game. The other six games: 0-6 and 18.8 PPG.

 

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Florida International Panthers​

Head coach: Mike MacIntyre (third year, 8-16 overall) 2024 projection: 124th in SP+, 4.9 average wins (3.1 in CUSA)

Mike MacIntyre loves a good fixer-upper. San Jose State had enjoyed just two winning seasons in 17 years, and the Spartans went 11-2 in his third year there. He moved on to Colorado, where the once-proud Buffaloes hadn't enjoyed a winning season in eight years. In his fourth season, CU won 10 games and a Pac-12 South title.

In that sense, things are progressing as expected for MacIntyre at FIU. Which is to say they haven't yet. He took over a Golden Panthers team that had lost 18 of 19 games, so technically going 4-8 twice is a nice step forward, but they're 6-2 in one-score finishes, which suggests that the record's a bit inflated. So does the fact that their SP+ ranking is still stuck in the 120s. But you can see the makings of something if you squint. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins started most of 2023 as a true freshman, and two of his three best performances came in the last two games, against Arkansas and WKU. Receiver Dean Patterson averaged 15.1 yards per catch as a sophomore. Six offensive linemen return with starting experience, and all of them are sophomores or juniors. Starting corners Hezekiah Masses and Brian Blades II were both sophomores, too, and they combined for one pick and 14 breakups.

It's a lot harder to take a "steady player development and no shortcuts" approach in the transfer portal era, and FIU's prognosis for 2024 would be more exciting if star receiver Kris Mitchell hadn't transferred to Notre Dame. But the Panthers still rank second in CUSA in returning production, and with nine games projected within one score, they're only a few breaks from a run at 6-6. But they'll be relying almost completely on non-seniors, so if MacIntyre can simply keep developing guys and keep them in town for another year -- easier said than done -- they could be particularly interesting in 2025.

My favorite player: Nickel back Jamal Potts. One of the best DBs in Conference USA for a couple of years now, Potts checks every box on the Good Nickel Back list. He recorded 10 run stops, six tackles for loss and three pressures, and in 27 passes as primary coverage guy, he allowed a solid 46.6 QBR and three breakups.

 

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UTEP Miners​

Head coach: Scotty Walden (first year)

2024 projection: 125th in SP+, 3.8 average wins (2.9 in CUSA)

For a minute, it seemed like Dana Dimel was getting somewhere. The Miners perked up to 7-6 and 97th in SP+ in 2021 -- their first trip into the double digits since 2014 -- and built a solid, physical identity that could theoretically be maintained in one of college football's more isolated locales. But after starting 4-4 in 2022, they went just 4-11 from there. The portal took more than it gave, the offense collapsed, and Dimel was dismissed. This being one of the hardest jobs in FBS eventually overtook him, as it has for most UTEP coaches in memory.

Now it's former Austin Peay coach Scotty Walden's turn, and he's attempting a variation of the Helton Maneuver, transplanting an entire offense - in this case, his own - from FCS. Walden has brought 12 APSU transfers, including 10 offensive players, with him to El Paso.

A lot of those former Colonels could start this season because, well, the slate's clean. The top three rushers, top four pass-catchers and top six linemen are all gone. APSU ranked eighth in offensive SP+ at the FCS level -- they probably had a better offense than UTEP even with the FBS-to-FCS gap -- and guys like 1,400 yard rusher Jevon Jackson and receivers Kam Thomas and Trey Goodman were major reasons why. But this is a ton of turnover.

It's a similar but not quite as drastic story on defense, where nine of 16 players who saw at least 200 snaps are gone. Walden brought APSU safety Xavier Smith and nickel Kory Chapman to town, plus two other FCS-level starters and potentially interesting FBS guys like Tulsa linebacker Dorian Hopkins and New Mexico end Hunter Rapolla. Maybe the most exciting import might be coordinator J.J. Clark, who did solid things in his lone year at APSU and great things at NAIA's Indiana Wesleyan before that.

My favorite player: OLB Maurice Westmoreland. The senior from Houston might be one of the only returnees with a track record, but it's a hell of a track record. Westmoreland recorded 7.5 sacks and eight run stops among 11.5 TFLs. He plays bigger than his listed 235 pounds, and a creative new coordinator should have a lot of fun with him.

 

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Kennesaw State Owls​

Head coach: Brian Bohannon (10th year, 71-30 overall)

2024 projection: 130th in SP+, 3.3 average wins (2.3 in CUSA)

In the space between deciding you want to move to FBS and actually making the leap, your fortunes can change quite a bit. UMass, for instance, slipped from an FCS playoff-level team to 5-6, then showed up in FBS and went 2-22 in its first two seasons. SHSU won FCS in 2020-21, then lost its first eight games as an FBS team 2.5 years later.

Did Kennesaw State mistime its jump, too? After winning at least 11 games four times in five years under Brian Bohannon, the Owls stumbled to 5-6 in 2022, then went 3-6 in a transitional year last fall. You can blame some of this on some intentional redshirts -- scroll their stats, and you see quite a few guys playing well, but for exactly four games and no more -- but still, the downturn began the year before.

Since its start up season in 2015, Bohannon is the only coach KSU has ever had. He had the Owls in the FCS playoffs by their third season, and he's crafted a unique identity around option-esque football and a defense good enough to have lost three coordinators to FBS coordinator jobs in the last seven years. He seems to be building a roster with the long haul in mind -- he's added nine transfers (12 including JUCOs), but only two are seniors -- and it's hard to imagine KSU getting off to a particularly fast start. But players like running back Michael Benefield (6.3 yards per carry) and receiver Gabriel Benyard (23.8 yards per catch), linebacker Donelius Johnson (six TFLs in nine games) and defensive back Jayven Williams (3.5 TFLs and three breakups in five games) have major play-making potential. This might not be a great season, but it shouldn't be UMass-level bad either. And either way, welcome to the party, Owls! Hooty-hoo and whatnot.

My favorite player: WR Gabriel Benyard. In 13 games over the last two seasons, Benyard has caught 27 passes for 567 yards and six touchdowns and rushed 48 times for 318 yards, and for his career he's averaged both 25.8 yards per kick return and 21.7 yards per punt return (!!). He immediately becomes one of the best play-makers in Conference USA.

The guy just swivels in the open field.

 

[Leekbets]

Nice post great stuff