✔️Big 10 2024 Preview & Breakdown

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Big Ten 2024 preview: Breaking down Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Oregon, Penn State, more​

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It's top-heavy, it's a geographical disaster and it's basically the richest conference in college sports. The new-look, 18-team Big Ten, spanning from Los Angeles and Seattle to New York(ish) and Washington, D.C.(ish), will make its debut this fall, whether we're ready for it or not. It boasts both of last year's College Football Playoff National Championship participants (Michigan and Washington) and four of the top seven or so teams in the country. Depth is as tenuous as ever, but the big games will be huge.

That's enough small talk, though. We've got 18 teams to talk about. Let's preview the very Big Ten!

2023 recap​

TEAM	REC. (CONF)	SP+ RK	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	ST SP+
Michigan (Big Ten)	15-0 (10-0)	31.3 (1)	36.6 (12)	7.2 (1)	1.8 (7)
Oregon (Pac-12)	12-2 (8-2)	26.2 (3)	45.0 (1)	18.2 (16)	-0.5 (84)
Ohio St. (Big Ten)	11-2 (8-1)	25.2 (4)	31.5 (34)	7.8 (2)	1.5 (20)
Penn St. (Big Ten)	10-3 (7-2)	23.5 (5)	32.7 (30)	10.5 (4)	1.3 (28)
Washington (Pac-12)	14-1 (10-0)	16.4 (13)	40.3 (5)	24.7 (50)	0.8 (47)
Maryland (Big Ten)	8-5 (4-5)	11.0 (21)	28.3 (57)	17.6 (11)	0.4 (59)
UCLA (Pac-12)	8-5 (4-5)	9.7 (27)	29.6 (47)	18.4 (17)	-1.5 (108)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)	7-6 (5-4)	9.4 (29)	22.2 (86)	14.1 (7)	1.3 (29)
USC (Pac-12)	8-5 (5-4)	9.4 (31)	43.3 (3)	32.8 (105)	-1.2 (99)
Iowa (Big Ten)	10-4 (7-3)	5.8 (47)	13.8 (129)	9.3 (3)	1.3 (30)
Rutgers (Big Ten)	7-6 (3-6)	3.5 (56)	21.0 (97)	18.7 (19)	1.2 (33)
Minnesota (Big Ten)	6-7 (3-6)	0.4 (63)	20.0 (103)	21.1 (31)	1.5 (19)
Nebraska (Big Ten)	5-7 (3-6)	0.3 (66)	15.6 (123)	13.9 (6)	-1.4 (105)
Northwestern (Big Ten)	8-5 (5-4)	-1.3 (69)	18.5 (112)	18.5 (18)	-1.3 (104)
Illinois (Big Ten)	5-7 (3-6)	-2.5 (75)	21.6 (92)	24.1 (45)	-0.1 (76)
Michigan St. (Big Ten)	4-8 (2-7)	-6.8 (88)	15.7 (122)	24.0 (44)	1.6 (16)
Purdue (Big Ten)	4-8 (3-6)	-7.3 (90)	21.8 (91)	27.1 (70)	-2.0 (127)
Indiana (Big Ten)	3-9 (1-8)	-7.4 (92)	19.6 (105)	27.2 (73)	0.3 (63)

The top five teams in this new Big Ten went 6-6 against each other and 56-2 against everyone else in college football last season. Oregon lost only two devastatingly tight games to Washington; Washington was a close-game master but got thumped by Michigan in the national title game; Penn State lost only to Michigan and Ohio State, as is customary, until a bowl loss to another top-10ish team (Ole Miss) in the Peach Bowl; Ohio State lost a third straight to Michigan but ran the table until, with some key offensive pieces missing, it lost to another top-10ish team (Missouri) in the Cotton Bowl.

Iowa snared a Big Ten championship game bid in the conference's last year with divisions, but the Hawkeyes were the only team to stand out in a glut of five- to eight-win teams.

In all, the Big Ten boasted seven of the top 11 defenses in the country and only four of the top 29 offenses. But if you watched Big Ten football last year, you had probably already sussed that one out.

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2024 projections​

TEAM	SP+ (RK)	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W	SOS RK
Ohio St.	32.7 (2)	36.6 (20)	4.0 (1)	10.5	7.5	25
Oregon	30.8 (3)	48.0 (1)	17.2 (14)	10.4	7.5	26
Michigan	27.5 (6)	32.9 (32)	5.5 (3)	9.7	7.2	17
Penn St.	26.8 (7)	36.1 (23)	9.3 (4)	10.1	7.4	34
USC	13.6 (21)	44.0 (5)	30.5 (87)	6.4	4.8	11
Iowa	13.2 (22)	17.9 (117)	4.7 (2)	7.8	5.5	35
UCLA	11.3 (26)	30.8 (51)	19.5 (27)	6.2	4.4	13
Wisconsin	10.8 (27)	24.1 (80)	13.3 (7)	6.6	4.5	19
Washington	9.1 (35)	34.2 (28)	25.1 (46)	6.5	3.8	16
Nebraska	7.1 (40)	19.6 (104)	12.5 (6)	7.0	4.3	36
Maryland	5.0 (44)	22.9 (87)	17.9 (17)	6.5	4.1	29
Minnesota	4.8 (45)	23.6 (82)	18.8 (22)	5.6	3.1	28
Rutgers	3.9 (49)	22.5 (92)	18.6 (20)	6.4	4.1	57
Illinois	-1.3 (66)	22.6 (90)	23.9 (40)	5.0	2.9	22
Purdue	-3.0 (72)	25.5 (74)	28.5 (68)	4.0	2.6	12
Northwestern	-3.4 (74)	17.0 (119)	20.3 (29)	4.3	2.4	27
Michigan St.	-4.9 (82)	15.4 (125)	20.4 (30)	4.4	2.3	18
Indiana	-5.7 (85)	22.0 (95)	27.8 (62)	4.9	2.3	31

It feels like a letdown to say that only four of 18 teams are genuine title contenders in the Big Ten race -- it definitely tamps down the number of huge games -- but can you make the case for someone outside of the top four? I certainly can't, though a mashup of USC's offense and Iowa's defense would produce the best team in the country.

Maybe the most interesting projection above is Washington. The Huskies won 14 games and were an absolute delight from top to bottom, but they return almost none of last year's key figures. Head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama, and only two -- two! -- starters return. New head coach Jedd Fisch did incredible things in a short span of time at Arizona, and he has certainly used the portal to import a lot of other teams' starters, but he had to start from scratch, and SP+ isn't much of a believer in national title game aura. You could make the case that projecting the Huskies 35th is actually a little ambitious.

Odds Of Winning The Big Ten Title​

TEAM	CONF. TITLE %	11+ WINS %	6+ WINS %	RET PROD (RK)	OFF RET	DEF RET
Ohio St.	30.9%	51.8%	100.0%	64.6% (56)	61.8% (66)	67.5% (39)
Oregon	26.1%	47.2%	100.0%	68.6% (26)	67.6% (46)	69.7% (31)
Penn St.	17.8%	40.2%	100.0%	67.3% (37)	66.8% (49)	67.7% (38)
Michigan	17.0%	23.4%	99.9%	40.0% (126)	26.6% (132)	53.4% (99)
Iowa	2.0%	2.6%	93.5%	79.0% (10)	71.6% (33)	86.5% (2)
USC	1.8%	0.2%	70.6%	59.8% (77)	50.8% (99)	68.8% (34)
Wisconsin	1.2%	0.2%	76.3%	67.8% (31)	64.2% (57)	71.4% (25)
UCLA	0.9%	0.1%	68.5%	70.4% (21)	70.2% (39)	70.5% (29)
Nebraska	0.6%	0.4%	85.2%	70.9% (20)	71.8% (32)	70.0% (30)
Washington	0.6%	0.1%	75.7%	40.4% (125)	26.1% (134)	54.7% (95)
Rutgers	0.4%	0.3%	70.6%	72.1% (13)	69.4% (40)	74.9% (20)
Maryland	0.3%	0.1%	75.4%	51.0% (102)	35.9% (123)	66.2% (42)
Minnesota	0.3%	0.0%	52.2%	70.9% (19)	67.7% (45)	74.1% (22)
Illinois	<0.1%	0.0%	34.7%	60.6% (71)	57.0% (82)	64.2% (49)
Purdue	<0.1%	0.0%	12.7%	63.0% (63)	70.8% (37)	55.3% (92)
Northwestern	<0.1%	0.0%	18.3%	59.4% (80)	54.9% (89)	64.0% (50)
Michigan St.	<0.1%	0.0%	20.7%	60.6% (72)	46.2% (109)	75.0% (19)
Indiana	<0.1%	0.0%	32.3%	64.3% (59)	66.2% (50)	62.5% (55)

I'm just saying, James Franklin, now would be a pretty good time to get everything figured out. Franklin and Penn State drew only one of the three other projected top-10 teams (Ohio State) and play only one projected top-25 team on the road. The Nittany Lions have experience and two intriguing new coordinators, and ... yes, I've said a lot of these things before.

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Five best games of 2024​

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12). It's a bit melodramatic to say that we blew up an entire conference for one game, but ... this one's going to be awfully big. These teams have met only 10 times -- once in the national title game (an Ohio State win), twice in the Rose Bowl (both Ohio State wins), seven times as nonconference foes (with six games in Columbus and six Ohio State wins) -- but with last year's national title game teams facing so much turnover, the new Big Ten era starts with these two programs as the bell cows.

Ohio State at Penn State and Oregon at Michigan (Nov. 2). Well this is a hell of a day, isn't it? Penn State gets a shot at its biggest win since about 2016, and Michigan, which will have faced a pillow-soft schedule to this point besides its Week 2 visit from Texas (and will therefore likely be 7-1 at worst), gets a grand opportunity to prove that the defending champ is still a major contender.

USC at UCLA (Nov. 23). Both of these teams start out ranked in the 20s, with USC trotting out a new quarterback and defensive coordinator and UCLA hiring a rookie head coach. But there's at least a chance that this one has some CFP at-large stakes to add to its status as the rivalry game with the prettiest combination of uniform colors.

Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30). Ohio State faces all three of the conference's other top-10 teams, but in terms of both stakes and existential crises, The Game still stands out.

 

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Conference title and/or CFP contenders​

Ohio State Buckeyes​

Head coach: Ryan Day (sixth full year, 56-8 overall)

2024 projection: second in SP+, 10.5 average wins (7.5 in Big Ten)

Ryan Day is 56-8 as Ohio State's head coach. That's basically like alternating between 10-2 and 11-1 in perpetuity. Almost no one in the sport does better than that. But the fact that Day's entire program seemed to have fallen into an existential crisis at the end of last season speaks to the unique pressure of a job like Ohio State. Every loss is reason for panic, and a loss to your chief rival is equivalent to a five-game losing streak.

The Buckeyes have lost to Michigan (and failed to reach the Big Ten championship) for three straight seasons, and while they still reached the CFP in one of those years, that's not a great way to win hearts and minds in Columbus.

If the team lives up to its capabilities this fall, however, hearts and minds will be swayed. Ohio State has the single-most proven unit in the country -- third-year coordinator Jim Knowles' defense, which surged to second in defensive SP+ and returns 10 of the 14 players with 200-plus snaps -- and an offense with the five-star talent, new coaching input and new quarterbacks who could allow it to bounce back after a down year.

It's amazing to think back to what we were saying about the Buckeyes' defense heading into last season. After getting torched by Michigan and Georgia late in the 2022 season, Knowles had some proof-of-concept issues, but those all went away with a brilliant 2023. Ohio State ranked eighth in success rate allowed, gave up almost no big plays and dominated up front. This year's line includes stars in ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and tackle Tyleik Williams. The secondary returns four of five starters and replaces one star safety (Josh Proctor) with another (Alabama transfer Caleb Downs). A couple of good linebackers are gone, but veterans Sonny Styles and Cody Simon both played and played well last year.

Granted, the Buckeyes still had the third-best offense in the defense-heavy Big Ten, but their No. 34 offensive SP+ ranking was their worst since 2011; they had one genuine weakness -- they were a grisly 123rd in goal-to-go TD rate (and ranking 37th in rushing success rate and 31st on passing downs is unacceptable for this talent level) -- but down for down they were mostly fine.

To rebound, Day basically made some trades. Quarterback Kyle McCord left for Syracuse, and in came senior Will Howard (Kansas State). Most of the backup running backs left, and in their place strode Ole Miss' Quinshon Judkins, who will team with the dynamite-when-healthy TreVeyon Henderson to form a ridiculously talented backfield. At receiver, Day didn't make any major additions; he'll lean instead on senior Emeka Egbuka and a plethora of four- and five-star youngsters. Sophomore Carnell Tate caught 18 balls for 264 yards, sophomore Brandon Inniss had one catch for 58 yards and a touchdown (a great per-catch average!) and all-world freshman Jeremiah Smith was a spring star already. The line returns four starters and adds Alabama center Seth McLaughlin.

Day also brought in Chip Kelly; he hasn't been an offensive coordinator since 2008, but in 12 seasons as an FBS OC or head coach, he has fielded eight top-15 offenses (per SP+). Drag Ohio State back into the top 15, and with that defense you might have the best team in the country.

My favorite player: WR Emeka Egbuka. Will Howard actually ranked lower in Total QBR (23rd) than Kyle McCord did (seventh) last season. Ohio State is not guaranteed to improve a ton at QB, but while Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Cade Stover are gone from a receiving corps that undoubtedly propped McCord's numbers up a bit, Howard will still have Egbuka.

The senior has 1,857 career receiving yards, 14 touchdowns and six career games with over 110 yards, and he has proved to be a big-time weapon on both deep routes (14 career catches for 513 yards on vertical and post routes) and the shorter, more reliable stuff (61 for 899 on outs, crosses and hooks).

 

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Oregon Ducks​

Head coach: Dan Lanning (third year, 22-5 overall)

2024 projection: third in SP+, 10.5 average wins (7.5 in Big Ten)

In the seven seasons before hiring Dan Lanning, Oregon was decent: The Ducks won at least nine games four times with two conference titles, but they were taking advantage of a particularly weak Pac-12 and finished in the SP+ top 20 only once in that span.

They immediately jumped from 37th to 17th in Lanning's first season. Then they surged even further in his second.

According to SP+, Oregon's 2023 team was its best ever, topping even the 2010 and 2014 teams that reached the national title game. The Ducks won 12 games (including four against SP+ top-40 teams) by an average score of 46-13 and fell victim only to Washington's incredible close-games magic. The losses to the Huskies prevented a shot at the national title, but in their first year in the Big Ten, they will have, at worst, the second-most proven roster in their new conference.

That's not to say they don't have stars to replace. They'll have a new leading passer, rusher and receiver this year. The offense lost five starters, the defense about five as well. But they have one of the most proven receivers in the country (Tez Johnson) and a collection of impressive running backs, and Lanning combined another strong freshman recruiting class -- at this point, only three rosters have a higher percentage of former blue-chippers than Oregon -- with some outstanding work in the transfer portal.

What's the best way to replace a QB as good as Bo Nix? By signing a guy with 14,865 career passing yards (Dillon Gabriel) and landing the No. 2 player in the 2023 recruiting class (Dante Moore) as a backup. Give Johnson a top-15 recruit from 2022 (Texas A&M WR Evan Stewart) as a battery mate, too, and throw in a Division II All-American (NW Missouri State's Jay Harris) for good measure. Harris will join a group of backs that includes Jordan James (891 yards from scrimmage, 7.3 per touch) and Noah Whittington (948 yards from scrimmage, 5.9 per touch in 2022). Stewart and Johnson will get potential big-play boosts from junior Gary Bryant Jr. and potentially blue-chip freshmen like Jeremiah McClellan. Three starting linemen and every relevant backup return, too.

On defense, Lanning upgraded his secondary with maybe the most aggressive corners (Washington's Jabbar Muhammad and UTSA's Kam Alexander) and safeties (Duke's Brandon Johnson and Kansas State's Kobe Savage) in the portal. They'll join a proven end (Jordan Burch) and linebackers Jeffrey Bassa and Jestin Jacobs. Total tackles missed by Jacobs last season: zero. If there's a concern, it might be depth on the defensive front, where the Ducks lost four of last year's top five and Lanning inked only two transfers (Michigan State's Derrick Harmon and Houston's Jamaree Caldwell). Recent all-world recruits like sophomore Matayo Uiagalelei and freshman Aydin Breland might have to back up their hype for the line to hold up. But if it does, Lanning has everything he needs.

My favorite player: WR Tez Johnson. He's basically part-running back, part-wideout, all-awesome. He was targeted 27 times on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and caught 26 of them for 164 yards (6.3 per catch). He was targeted 34 times on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield and caught 22 of them (65%) for 623 yards (28.3 per catch). If Stewart and others can give him cover out wide, Johnson is virtually unguardable.

 

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Michigan Wolverines​

Head coach: Sherrone Moore (first year, officially 1-0 overall)

2024 projection: sixth in SP+, 9.7 average wins (7.2 in Big Ten)

The three cover athletes for the long-awaited EA Sports College Football 25 game are the most exciting dual-threat athlete in quite some time (Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter), a guy who threw for almost 3,500 yards for a CFP team (Texas QB Quinn Ewers) and ... a backup running back who didn't top 500 yards (Michigan RB Donovan Edwards).

At first glance, that's confusing, but the thought process is pretty clear: EA decided it needed someone from the defending national champion, and most of the recognizable faces are gone. Michigan's title defense will take place without last year's head coach, quarterback, leading rusher, two leading receivers, entire starting offensive line and eight defensive starters. National runner-up Washington got hit even harder, but that's still a lot. Once EA committed to using a Michigan player, it was basically either Edwards, tight end Colston Loveland or cornerback Will Johnson.

If the Wolverines are a top-10 team again as projected, it's likely because the defense will still be elite. Johnson is one of the best defenders in the country; he'll lead a crew that still returns nine players who saw at least 200 snaps (10 if you include safety Rod Moore, who injured his knee in spring but might return at some point). And while Sherrone Moore didn't do much in the portal compared to most of his peers, he still added four intriguing defensive backs -- safeties Wesley Walker (Tennessee) and Jaden Mangham (Michigan State!) and corners Ricky Johnson (UNLV) and Aamir Hall (Albany) -- and linebacker Jaishawn Barham (Maryland). The line boasts a bounty of bright talent like tackles Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Rayshaun Benny and ends Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart, and Moore called in a ringer to serve as defensive coordinator (NFL veteran Wink Martindale).

The offense is far less proven. Big sophomore Alex Orji (6-foot-3, 236 pounds) appears most likely to succeed J.J. McCarthy at quarterback -- new coordinator Kirk Campbell evidently decided he had what he needed without a transfer -- and Edwards, with 2,376 career yards from scrimmage, is a pretty proven commodity even if last year's return from injury wasn't incredible (he averaged 4.2 yards per carry after averaging 6.7 before that). Loveland might be the best returning tight end in the country, but receivers Semaj Morgan and Tyler Morris are the most proven entities in the receiving corps after combining for all of 401 yards last year. The line, so good for so long with Moore as OL coach, has two particularly experienced players: tackle Myles Hinton, who started the first five games last season, and Northwestern transfer Josh Priebe.

Michigan will be a work in progress in 2024, but at least two of the three projected top-five opponents on the schedule -- Texas in September, Oregon and Ohio State in November -- don't show up until late in the year.

My favorite player: TE Colston Loveland. Last year, five heavily targeted tight ends averaged more than 2.0 yards per route run. Loveland's the only one left.

Loveland's contributions to the title cause were a slow drip. He was targeted more than six times in just two games and never caught more than five passes, but he moved the chains with 71% of his receptions -- including three fourth-down catches and seven on third-and-8 or more -- and made seven contested catches, four on third or fourth down. He's there when the Wolverines need him, and they'll need him more in 2024.

 

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Penn State Nittany Lions​

Head coach: James Franklin (11th year, 88-39` overall)

2024 projection: seventh in SP+, 10.1 average wins (7.4 in Big Ten)

James Franklin's Penn State program has been on the brink of elite play for most of a decade now, winning at least 10 games in five of the past seven full seasons. But the Nittany Lions haven't beaten Ohio State since 2016, and as Franklin fiddled and tinkered in an effort to catch the Buckeyes, Michigan zoomed by PSU, too.

Teams in Penn State's stratosphere stand to benefit more than anyone from the CFP's expansion -- the Nittany Lions have finished in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings for six of the past eight seasons, after all. But can Franklin unearth the upside required to actually make a playoff run?

Franklin, who was at the center of a $5 million lawsuit by a former PSU doctor this spring, has made enough good coordinator hires that he then ends up replacing quite a few after they leave for head-coaching gigs (the latest: Duke-bound former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, replaced by former Indiana head coach Tom Allen). But the Nittany Lions have averaged just a 35.4 offensive SP+ ranking over the past five years. Can new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki unlock Drew Allar's potential and provide a breakthrough?

Allar, the most highly touted PSU quarterback since Christian Hackenberg, wasn't bad in 2023, but he rarely threw downfield, and without verticality in the passing game, the run game was stifled a bit. Backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton averaged only 4.8 yards per carry between them (2022: 6.0). In all, PSU averaged just 1.5 gains per game of 30-plus yards, 116th in FBS.

Kotelnicki's Kansas offenses used misdirection to make safeties' lives hell, and the Jayhawks averaged 3.0 gains per game of 30-plus (ninth). Allen and (especially) Singleton are capable of home runs; we'll see what comes from a receiving corps that features an excellent tight end (Tyler Warren) and plenty of former blue-chippers but mostly unproven big-play commodities. Can some combination of transfer Julian Fleming (Ohio State) and holdovers Harrison Wallace III, Liam Clifford, Omari Evans, Kaden Saunders and Anthony Ivey get the job done in this department? And can the line hold up after replacing three starters?

Allen's Indiana defenses always had pretty good game plans even if they didn't always have the depth to execute them for 60 minutes. He'll have plenty of talent and depth in State College. The Nittany Lions ranked fourth in defensive SP+ last season, and of the 20 players with 200-plus snaps, 13 return. Both starting cornerbacks are gone, but Cam Miller is excellent, and Franklin brought in former blue-chippers from Georgia (A.J. Harris) and Florida (Jalen Kimber) as a supplement. In the front six, Allen will have fun with ends Abdul Carter and Zuriah Fisher and super-active linebackers Kobe King and Dominic DeLuca (plus maybe sophomores Tony Rojas and, if healthy, Keon Wylie).

My favorite player: QB Drew Allar. OK, Kobe King's probably my favorite, but Allar is fascinating. And confusing. His Total QBR topped 75.0 in six games -- in which PSU went 6-0 and averaged 42 points per game -- but despite a cannon arm he took almost no risks whatsoever. In six games against teams in the defensive SP+ top 20, he didn't throw a single interception but completed only 56% of his passes at 9.2 yards per completion. It might actually benefit Kotelnicki and PSU if Allar is bold enough to make a few more mistakes, as long as big plays follow.

 

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A couple of breaks (OK, maybe a few) away from a run​

USC Trojans​

Head coach: Lincoln Riley (third year, 19-8 overall)

2024 projection: 21st in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.8 in Big Ten)

It's been a two-act play so far for Lincoln Riley at USC. His first Trojans team won 11 of its first 12 games, overcoming a porous defense with otherworldly play from quarterback Caleb Williams & Co. But in the 15 games since, USC is 8-7. The offense remained awesome in 2023, but after Riley elected to retain long-serving defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, the defense dropped from a bad 87th in defensive SP+ to an inexcusable 105th.

It feels odd to talk about a coach getting a "fresh start" in just his third year, but that's what Riley has: new conference, new quarterback, new defensive coordinator.

The offense returns only three full-time starters, but the upside remains massive. The line should be solid, and a group of blue-chip sophomores -- running back Quinten Joyner (6.9 yards per carry) and receivers Zachariah Branch, Duce Robinson, Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon (combined: 60 catches, 852 yards and six TDs) -- is absolutely tantalizing. Branch is already one of the nation's best return men, and Robinson both started and ended the year with a flurry of big plays. Riley also added veterans like running back Jo'Quavious Marks (Mississippi State) and receiver Jay Fair (Auburn) to avoid overreliance on sophomores.

At quarterback, Miller Moss was brilliant in a bowl win over Louisville, and UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava threw for 3,085 yards as a UNLV redshirt freshman. Moss made my Most Interesting QBs list in February (as did Drew Allar), but it doesn't matter who comes through as long as someone does.

With his brilliant offenses, all Riley needs is a top-40 defense to contend for titles. In the past six seasons, he has had just one of those. In finally replacing Grinch, though, he did make a hell of a hire, stealing UCLA's D'Anton Lynn, who flipped the Bruins' defense from 92nd to 17th in defensive SP+ last season. Riley doesn't recruit as well on defense, but Lynn still inherits some decent players in the front six -- tackle Bear Alexander, end Jamil Muhammad, linebacker Mason Cobb -- and could benefit from some nice portal work in the secondary, where a couple of his better Bruins (corner John Humphrey and safety Kamari Ramsey) make the crosstown move and safety Akili Arnold (Oregon State) and corner/nickel Greedy Vance Jr. (Florida State) could provide upgrades. Does Lynn have another miracle turnaround in him?

My favorite player: WR Zachariah Branch. He took his first collegiate kick return 96 yards for a touchdown. Two of his first nine punt returns went 60-plus yards. He didn't do a ton as an actual receiver -- 20 of his 31 receptions were caught within a yard of the line of scrimmage -- but if his route running develops even a little bit, he immediately becomes one of the most dynamic weapons in the sport.

 

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Iowa Hawkeyes​

Head coach: Kirk Ferentz (26th year, 196-119 overall)

2024 projection: 22nd in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.5 in Big Ten)

Kirk Ferentz will win his 200th game at Iowa sometime this fall. That's a remarkable accomplishment by any standard, and he increasingly has done it by playing a different sport than everyone else.

Since 2021, FBS teams are 140-1176 (win percentage: 0.106) when scoring 17 or fewer points. Iowa is 7-13. Only three teams have done so more, and no one has won more while doing so.

Just imagine if the Hawkeyes actually tried to score more points? The Hawkeyes have finished in the defensive SP+ top three for five straight seasons under magnificent coordinator Phil Parker, but their offensive SP+ ranking fell from 85th to 91st to 129th in the past three seasons under offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. That they won 10 games in 2023 was remarkable, but no one was forcing them to win games with one hand tied behind their proverbial back.

Forced to bring in a new coordinator, Kirk Ferentz went with former WMU head coach Tim Lester. Lester is a former quarterback and QBs coach, but in seven full seasons as an FBS offensive coordinator or head coach, Lester's best offenses ranked 49th (in 2017) and 51st (in 2021). His last WMU offense plummeted to 124th in 2022, but the 2021 offense is probably the vision: WMU backs averaged 36.2 carries per game, but quarterback Kaleb Eleby still threw for 3,278 yards at 14.2 yards per completion. An Iowa quarterback hasn't topped even 2,000 yards since 2019.

Lester's first starting QB will likely be either Cade McNamara or Brendan Sullivan. McNamara struggled after transferring from Michigan, then got hurt; Sullivan flashed solid mobility while throwing mostly short passes at Northwestern in 2023. They'll have tight ends Addison Ostrenga and Luke Lachey and no wideout who caught more than 11 passes last year. More relevant: They'll be handing to Leshon Williams, Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson a ton. The line, long a perceived strength, hasn't been truly effective for a while, but it will at least be senior-heavy.

The defense didn't deploy a heavy rotation but returns 11 of the 14 players with at least 400 snaps. That includes an outstanding tackle (Yahya Black), ridiculous linebackers (Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson) and a veteran secondary that includes maybe the best nickelback in the country (Sebastian Castro). Parker should start at least eight seniors -- this will be a particularly strong and experienced unit. It would be a pretty good time for the offense to actually carry its weight for once.

My favorite player: nickel Sebastian Castro. Nickels produce my favorite stat lines in the sport -- they do a little of everything. But only Castro was capable of combining (a) 16.0 tackles at or behind the line, (b) 10 QB pressures, (c) 11 passes defended (with three INTs) and (d) an 11.0 QBR allowed. That's absurd.

 

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UCLA Bruins​

Head coach: DeShaun Foster (first year)

2024 projection: 26th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.4 in Big Ten)

I've never found a particularly effective way to factor coaching changes into preseason SP+ projections, but if you were confused seeing UCLA projected 26th overall, the coaching change is probably why. When Chip Kelly left for Ohio State in February, the school replaced him with a rookie head coach in former Bruins star DeShaun Foster. UCLA has ranked 25th and 27th in SP+ over the past two years and is projected to be about the same this year, but that will require a lot from Foster.

Foster is certainly familiar with the program, having served as running backs coach since 2016. He retained defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe, whom Kelly had promoted after the departure of D'Anton Lynn, and his big swing came in hiring Eric Bieniemy, who was not so long ago regarded as one of the top assistants in the NFL, as offensive coordinator.

A lot of key players return. Ethan Garbers matched Ohio State-bound Will Howard's 75.1 Total QBR in six starts, and he'll have both a super-experienced offensive line and a fun skill corps. Backs TJ Harden and Anthony Adkins averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, and Notre Dame sophomore transfer Rico Flores joins wideouts Logan Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant (combined: 1,254 yards and nine TDs) and tight end Moliki Matavao (20.2 yards per catch). There's a lot to like about the offense if Bieniemy makes the pro-to-college transition well.

We'll find out how important Lynn was to the defensive turnaround because the two-deep returns quite a bit: Of the 18 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return. That includes a big and effective line led by Jay Toia and Keanu Williams. The addition of Georgia Tech nickel K.J. Wallace and Oregon safety Bryan Addison bolsters the back.

The list of returnees, however, doesn't include a pair of devastating outside linebackers. Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy combined for 39.5 TFLs, 23 run stops and 21 sacks. The addition of five transfer linebackers -- including Navy's Jacob Busic (8.5 TFLs), three smaller-school stars (Johns Hopkins' Luke Schuermann had 9.5 sacks) and young Miami blue-chipper Collins Acheampong -- suggests concern.

My favorite player: RB TJ Harden. One of the lower-ranked members of UCLA's 2022 class, Harden was an almost immediate contributor, and over two seasons, he has averaged 5.8 yards per carry -- 2.8 before contact (good) and 3.0 after contact (excellent). He's also a solid receiver, and he has topped 100 yards from scrimmage five times in his past 15 games. He also gets bonus points for peaking late. Four of his 100-yard games have come in November or later, and his best game to date was his 158-yard effort against rival USC last year.

 

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Wisconsin Badgers​

Head coach: Luke Fickell (second year, 8-6 overall)

2024 projection: 27th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.5 in Big Ten)

After taking Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Luke Fickell made some pretty big, immediate changes in Madison. He attempted to upgrade and modernize a Badgers offense that hadn't changed all that much in 30-something years. He brought in a new defensive coordinator (Mike Tressel), too.

For all the changes, the Badgers basically ended up the same.

• 2022: 7-6, 30th in SP+ (65th on offense, 10th on defense)
• 2023: 7-6, 29th in SP+ (86th on offense, seventh on defense)

Phil Longo's new pass- and tempo-happier offense averaged 14.8 points per game against top-20 defenses and 28.9 against everyone else, and the defense contained just about everyone despite some red zone glitches. It was decent but uninspiring, but for Fickell, Year 1 is about planting seeds more than inspiring. At Cincinnati, after all, he inherited a 4-8 team and went 4-8 the first year. It's what happens next that matters.

Wisconsin's defense featured the requisite stellar linebacker play and solid big-play prevention, and of the 19 defenders with at least 200 snaps, 11 return. The secondary has dynamite corners Ricardo Hallman and Nyzier Fourqurean (combined: 7 INTs, 6 breakups, 6.5 TFLs), plus one of last year's best mid-major corners in Toledo's RJ Delancy. The line returns three-fifths of its rotation, too. There's turnover at linebacker, however, where four of the top six are gone and five transfers -- three veterans and two young, former blue-chippers -- come aboard. Incumbents Darryl Peterson and Jake Chaney are known entities, but a star turn from a newcomer like John Pius (16 TFLs and 9.5 sacks at William & Mary), would help immensely.

After a dreadful midseason run that saw the Badgers' offense underachieve by 12.3 PPG against SP+ projections, they overachieved by 4.8 PPG in the last three. That's not much to go on, but a lot of the players responsible for that late perkiness -- receivers Will Pauling and Bryson Green, running back Jackson Acker, starting tackles Riley Mahlman and Jack Nelson -- are back. So is veteran running back Chez Mellusi, who missed most of 2023 with injury. But with quarterback Tanner Mordecai gone, it will be up to either Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke or sophomore Braedyn Locke (probably the former) to keep things moving forward. Van Dyke hasn't yet matched the form he showed as a redshirt freshman in 2021, but he was decent last year, and he could fit Longo's quick-reads-and-tempo approach.

My favorite player: CB Ricardo Hallman. You know you're doing pretty well when you have nearly twice as many interceptions (seven) as completions of 20-plus allowed (four). As a sophomore, Hallman allowed a paltry 17.9 QBR as primary coverage guy and contested more than half the passes thrown his way. We'll see if Wisconsin has what it needs in the front seven, but it definitely has it in the back.

 

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Washington Huskies​

Head coach: Jedd Fisch (first year)

2024 projection: 35th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (3.8 in Big Ten)

There will be players on the field wearing Washington jerseys. They'll play their home games at Husky Stadium. Sailgating will remain a thing. Washington will look like Washington this fall, in other words. But almost none of the marquee names involved in the Huskies' 2023 run to the national title game are still around. Kalen DeBoer is gone, as are every offensive starter and a majority of the defense.

Jedd Fisch brought some exciting players with him from Arizona -- running back Jonah Coleman, disruptive outside linebackers Isaiah Ward and Russell Davis II and corner Ephesians Prysock (plus a few of the better 2024 Arizona commits) -- and if Fisch performs like he did at UA, the Huskies' program will start purring pretty soon. But how on earth do you project a team like this with any confidence?

Fisch and coordinators Brennan Carroll (offense) and Steve Belichick (defense) -- yes, you recognize those last names for a reason -- will be gluing together a brand-new two-deep, but the portal is providing some experience. Quarterback Will Rogers (Mississippi State) has 12,315 career passing yards, Coleman and Cameron Davis (injured in 2022) have 2,146 career rushing yards, and receivers Jeremiah Hunter (Cal) and Giles Jackson have 2,914 career receiving yards.

On defense, nine returnees saw at least 200 snaps, including solid contributors in tackle Jacob Bandes, edge rusher Voi Tunuufi, linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala, corner Elijah Jackson (probably the most proven returnee) and nickel Kamren Fabiculanan. The portal also brought the Arizona guys (Ward and Davis combined for 12.5 TFLs, Prysock had eight passes defended), plus Montana State tackle Sebastian Valdez (8.5 TFLs), SJSU linebacker Bryun Parham (tackles on 13.4% of snaps), Sacramento State safety Cameron Broussard (nine passes defended) and intriguing youngsters in Miami edge rusher Jayden Wayne and Indiana DB Jordan Shaw.

Line depth is a massive concern. Fisch brought in five veteran OL transfers, but none is particularly proven, and only two young returnees saw the field in 2023. On defense, only two returnees have any experience, and Valdez and Arizona reserve Bryce Butler are the only transfers. That alone will probably limit the Huskies' ceiling. But Fisch's Arizona treaded water for a year, then surged. UW will hope for something similar.

My favorite player: RB Jonah Coleman. For all of this team's unknowns, we do know this: Coleman's awesome. Of the 113 FBS backs with at least 125 carries last year, he ranked second in third-down conversion percentage (83.3%), third in yards per carry after contact (4.5), third in overall missed tackles per touch (0.37) and ninth in success rate (51.6%), and he was a solid 17th in percent of carries gaining 10+ yards (18.0%). He also caught 25 passes for 283 yards, including a 69-yarder against Washington State. Efficiency? Check. Explosiveness? Check. Pass-catching? Check. Explosive against an in-state rival? Check.

 

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Nebraska Cornhuskers​

Head coach: Matt Rhule (second year, 5-7 overall)

2024 projection: 40th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (4.3 in Big Ten)

Just as we continue to wait for Penn State to go from very good to elite, we are now in an annual wait for Nebraska to simply become good again. Starting with Tom Osborne's retirement, the Cornhuskers have suffered basically two different eras of regression, defined pretty noticeably on this chart.

The Huskers have finished under .500 for seven straight seasons. They spend their time alternating between mediocre (average SP+ ranking in this span: 62.1) and utterly snake-bitten (5-21 in one-score finishes since 2020). If Matt Rhule can't arrest this slide, I have no idea who can. He built a conference champion at Temple, and after the disastrous fall of the Baylor football program in the mid-2010s, he had the Bears back in the Big 12 championship in his third season in Waco, Texas.

As with Fickell, Year 1 doesn't mean much for Rhule. He won three combined games in his first seasons at Temple and Baylor; in 2023, his Huskers improved only from 4-8 to 5-7 and from 69th in SP+ to 66th. They were very good at defense and very, very bad at offense.

Rhule signed some knockout freshmen in the 2024 class -- namely, five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola and three other ESPN 300 offensive prospects -- and he resisted going overboard in the portal. Granted, a haul of eight transfers would have been massive in the Temple/Baylor years, but it's not much in 2024, and it's perhaps noteworthy that only three of the eight incoming transfers are seniors. It feels like he is building for a 2025 breakthrough at the earliest.

The Huskers are projected favorites in each of their first seven games before a brutal homestretch of five straight top-30 opponents. It will be interesting to see how Rhule attempts to balance the high ceiling of exciting youngsters -- Raiola and the freshmen, plus sophomore receivers Malachi Coleman and Jaylen Lloyd (combined: 14 catches, 376 yards!), left guard Justin Evans, defensive end Cameron Lenhardt and outside linebacker Princewill Umanmielen -- with the higher floor of veterans like quarterback Henrich Haarberg (a good runner, not so good a passer), tight end Thomas Fidone II, defensive end Jimari Butler, OLB Javin Wright, safety Isaac Gifford and corner Tommi Hill. Leaning on youth might pay off in the long run but cost you some early wins. Leaning on experience might get you a long-awaited bowl bid but put off development for future stars.

My favorite player: CB Tommi Hill. There are lots of good corners in this conference, but Hill's among the best. On 41 targets as primary coverage guy, he allowed just 17 completions for 211 yards with four interceptions and seven breakups to only one TD and two completions of 20-plus yards. QBR allowed: 34.1. And in October, he was on a different plane of existence: eight targets, zero completions, three INTs.

 

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Maryland Terrapins​

Head coach: Mike Locksley (sixth year, 29-33 overall)

2024 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (4.1 in Big Ten)

Maryland just fielded its best pair of teams since 2002-03; Mike Locksley's Terrapins finished 27th in SP+ in 2022, then jumped to 21st in 2023. They were 8-0 in nonconference games and bowls, and within the Big Ten they were a solid 8-4 against teams not named Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State. They even gave Michigan hell twice, losing by a touchdown both years. But they were still 0-6 against the Big Ten East's big three, and these two stellar teams ended up 8-5 both years.

In 2024, no longer stuck in the East division, the Terps face another painfully weak nonconference slate and won't play a projected top-70 team until mid-October. They avoid both Ohio State and Michigan (though they do add Oregon). With another top-30ish team, they would have a shot at 10 wins. But quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and almost his entire offensive line are gone, as are four of the six primary members of a stellar secondary. Locksley barely dipped into the portal, adding just six newcomers. He appears confident in what he's building, but this feels like a reset year before another potential rise in 2025.

In two years with Brian Williams as coordinator, Maryland's D improved from 46th to 28th to 11th in defensive SP+; the secondary was a big reason for that and could be again if Bowling Green cornerback transfer Jalen Huskey (four INTs, seven PBUs, 22.9 QBR allowed) clicks next to safety Dante Trader and slot corner Glendon Miller. The defensive front will be anchored by a pair of 320-pounders (sophomore Jordan Phillips, senior Tommy Akingbesote), and while the linebacking corps thinned out a bit, it returns disruptive juniors in OLB Kellan Wyatt and ILB Caleb Wheatland.

Tagovailoa's extreme efficiency was vital to Maryland's success last year because the run game was mostly inefficient. Two of three primary wideouts (Tai Felton and Kaden Prather) return, as does running back Roman Hemby, who made up for inefficient rushing with strong pass catching out of the backfield. But either sophomore transfer MJ Morris (NC State) or junior Billy Edwards Jr. has huge shoes to fill behind center, and neither was even remotely efficient in a small sample last season. The offensive line returns only two part-time starters, and four of the team's six transfers are O-linemen. At least a couple of them need to stick in the lineup immediately. The Terps' defense should be fine, but it feels like the offense is going to struggle.

My favorite player: nickel Glendon Miller. Another team, another DB favorite. Miller alternated between slot corner and safety and thrived in both positions. He finished 2023 with four interceptions and five pass breakups, and in 19 targets, he allowed only nine catches for 102 yards. The Terps need a couple of new stars in the secondary, but they definitely have at least one.

 

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Minnesota Golden Gophers​

Head coach: PJ Fleck (eighth year, 50-34 overall)

2024 projection: 45th in SP+, 5.6 average wins (3.1 in Big Ten)

After going 29-10 in three full seasons between 2019 and '22, Minnesota collapsed in 2023. An extremely young defense slipped from elite to merely good (31st in defensive SP+), then lost coordinator Joe Rossi to Michigan State. The offense fell from average to awful (103rd in offensive SP+). Per SP+, this was the worst Gophers team since 2012. Glitch? Start of a downfall? We'll begin to find out in 2024.

The defense, now led by former Rutgers assistant Corey Hetherman, should be fine. Of 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps, 14 return, and 10 are either sophomores or juniors. The linebacking corps of Devon Williams, Cody Lindenberg and Maverick Baranowski should be one of the Big Ten's best, and the line returns its two most disruptive players in ends Danny Striggow and Jah Joyner. The secondary isn't nearly as proven as others in this conference, though.

Fleck clearly thought the offense needed help, adding two QBs, four running backs, two receivers and a lineman from the portal. Most of the additions fit the typical Minnesota profile; translation: They're large. The new running backs (Ohio's Sieh Bangura, Oklahoma's Marcus Major and Michigan State's Jaren Mangham and Jalen Berger) average 6-1, 218 pounds. They'll join a solid sophomore in Darius Taylor. The six returning linemen with starting experience, meanwhile, average 6-6, 328 pounds. The receiving corps returns an excellent primary target in Daniel Jackson.

The most important transfer comes from New Hampshire. Max Brosmer threw for 8,713 career yards and 70 touchdowns at UNH. If he's not the answer at QB, there might not be one. The other four QBs on the roster are true and redshirt freshmen. That's not optimal when you're looking for a massive turnaround, but Brosmer looked good in the spring, at least.

My favorite player: WR Daniel Jackson. Despite the run game presenting little threat (especially after Darius Taylor went down with a hamstring injury), despite being basically the only real receiving threat on his team, and despite playing in a conference loaded with strong cornerbacks, Jackson thrived in 2023. He was one of only 21 players to be targeted at least 100 times and average at least 2.4 yards per route, and he probably had a higher degree of difficulty than most of the others.

 

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights​

Head coach: Greg Schiano (16th year, 87-95 overall, 19-28 in second stint)

2024 projection: 49th in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.1 in Big Ten)

In the past 15 years with someone other than Greg Schiano, Rutgers' win percentage is 0.321. That puts Schiano's 0.478 win percentage -- 0.555 if you take out the first two foundation-building years of each tenure -- into pretty solid context. Only one pilot has proved he can fly this plane with any degree of success. Schiano's Scarlet Knights enjoyed their first bowl win in nine years in 2023. They rank 13th nationally in returning production, and at this exact moment, at least, they have a top-15 class for 2025, too. There's more reason for optimism in Piscataway, New Jersey, than there's been since, well, the first time Schiano was generating an upward trajectory.

Running back Kyle Monangai is a 1,200-yard workhorse back, and Rutgers did well to keep him in town. Monangai will run behind a line that returns 48 of 65 starts, and if Minnesota quarterback transfer Athan Kaliakmanis and receivers Christian Dremel, Ian Strong and Dymere Miller (a 1,200-yard Monmouth transfer) can give the passing game a bit more oomph, coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's "rushing and play-action/RPOs" offense could take a reasonable step forward.

How good was Rutgers' secondary last year? The Scarlet Knights ranked 124th in rushing success rate allowed and 101st in sack rate but still ranked 17th in yards allowed per dropback and 19th in defensive SP+. Second-round cornerback Max Melton is gone, but dynamite safeties Flip Dixon and Shaquan Loyal return, as does Robert Longerbeam, who actually defended more passes (11) and allowed a lower QBR (34.1) than Melton.

The ceiling for the defense is sky high if the secondary gets more help. Florida State transfer Malcolm Ray joins a line with excellent experience but underwhelming size. Linebacker Mohamed Toure is an excellent mess cleaner, but the defensive front wasn't good enough, and we'll see if experience (and Ray) fix that.

My favorite player: RB Kyle Monangai. Only 28 backs rushed at least 200 times in 2023. Among them, Monangai forced the second-most missed tackles and fumbled zero times. He's a brawler, and when he's efficient, Rutgers is almost untouchable. When he produced at least a 45% success rate last season, the Knights were 6-1.

 

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Illinois Fighting Illini​

Head coach: Bret Bielema (fourth year, 18-19 overall)

2024 projection: 66th in SP+, 5.0 average wins (2.9 in Big Ten)

They surged to 10-2 in 2001, and within two years they were 1-11. They went to the Rose Bowl with nine wins in 2007, and within two years they were back to 3-9. They were a semi-unlucky 8-5 in 2022 (15th but dragged down by a 1-4 record in one-score games); in 2023 they were back to 5-7 and 75th.

You can win at Illinois. You just might only do it once.

Bret Bielema engineered particularly solid quality in 2022, but Illinois' offense, already mediocre, fell from 69th to 92nd in offensive SP+ last season, then lost most of its skill corps. The defense, elite in 2022, tumbled from third to 45th then lost basically its entire line.

If there's hope moving forward, it's that the more exciting returnees are sophomores and juniors. Junior quarterback Luke Altmyer is a decent dual threat, and when he was at least above average, so were the Fighting Illini. (They went 4-1 when he produced at least a 50.0 Total QBR and 0-4 when he didn't.) The two offensive linemen with the lowest blown block rates, center Josh Kreutz and guard Josh Gesky, are juniors. So are linebacker Dylan Rosiek and three strong defensive backs: safety Miles Scott, nickel Xavier Scott and corner Tyler Strain. For that matter, so are cornerback transfers Terrance Brooks (Texas) and Torrie Cox Jr. (Ohio).

If the defensive front, bolstered by a trio of tackle transfers, holds up, second-year coordinator Aaron Henry should have the playmakers he needs elsewhere. There's less known upside on offense, with sophomore running back Kaden Feagin and only one receiver who caught more than nine passes (Pat Bryant) -- plus receiver transfer Zakhari Franklin (Ole Miss), a former star at UTSA -- but merely average scoring totals would probably produce a bowl team.

My favorite player: LB Dylan Rosiek. This is the way you want development to work: In 44 snaps as a redshirt freshman in 2022, Rosiek attempted seven tackles and missed three of them. But as a sophomore, he was a stick of dynamite. He made 14 havoc plays (7 TFLs, 3 breakups, 4 forced fumbles), and 14.5 of his team-leading 76 tackles came at or behind the line of scrimmage.

 

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Purdue Boilermakers​

Head coach: Ryan Walters (second year, 4-8 overall)

2024 projection: 72nd in SP+, 4.0 average wins (2.6 in Big Ten)

With the heavy influence of the transfer portal and NIL funds in today's college football, coaches can attempt faster rebuilds than ever before. But that doesn't mean your first attempt will take. In Ryan Walters' first season at Purdue, he started a transfer at quarterback (Hudson Card), transfers accounted for a majority of starters on both lines, and his best defensive players were a sophomore (edge rusher Nic Scourton) and a true freshman (safety Dillon Thieneman). The Boilermakers fell from 49th to 90th in SP+, and their win total got cut in half.

Walters brought in another 18 transfers this year, in the hopes of plumping up the depth chart everywhere from running back to kicker. (Special teams: horrific last year.)

Card and running back Devin Mockobee return, and with transfer RB Reggie Love III (Illinois) joining and four starting linemen returning, the run game should again be a relative strength. But the receiving corps will be brand new, and while all three transfer WRs (UCLA's Kam Brown and Georgia sophomores C.J. Smith and De'Nylon Morrissette) are former blue-chippers, they combined for just 19 catches last season. Sophomore Jahmal Edrine might be the most proven option, and he sat out last year injured after a solid 2022 at FAU.

Of the 18 defenders to start at least once in 2023, only eight return -- less than what you'd hope considering the youth involved. Scourton left for A&M, but Thieneman (six INTs), sophomore corner Derrick Rogers Jr. (41.3 QBR allowed), edge rusher Kydran Jenkins and 335-pound tackle Cole Brevard return, at least. I'm fascinated by Franklin College DE transfer Jireh Ojata, too: The leap from Division III is enormous, but he had 17 TFLs in 10 games, and he's got excellent size (6-4, 260).

I could see both offense and defense making incremental improvements, but Purdue's going to be relying on quite a few newcomers again, and increased stability isn't guaranteed.

My favorite player: OLB Kydran Jenkins. Scourton was awesome, but Jenkins is a star in his own right. He was third in the Big Ten in sacks (7.5), fifth in TFLs (13), seventh in pressures (34) and 15th in run stops (10). With Jenkins and Thieneman, the Boilers have a couple of elite playmakers to build around.

 

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Northwestern Wildcats​

Head coach: David Braun (second year, 8-5 overall)

2024 projection: 74th in SP+, 4.3 average wins (2.4 in Big Ten)

The only first-year head coach who really clicked in 2023 wasn't supposed to be a head coach. David Braun took over as interim in July, after Pat Fitzgerald was fired amid accusations of hazing. He guided the Wildcats to an epic turnaround from 1-11 to 8-5.

Granted, Northwestern was an unsustainable 6-2 in one-score finishes and benefited from one of the conference's weaker schedules. The Wildcats were actually outscored for the season, too. This is why you are finding them so low in this enormous preview. But Braun took on an impossible job and won Big Ten Coach of the Year. Now he'll lead a team that is his, with a new offensive coordinator (Zach Lujan, formerly of South Dakota State), in a temporary stadium he was responsible for arranging.

Braun played a ton of defenders last year -- 19 with at least 240 snaps -- and 14 of them return, including TFLs leader Xander Mueller, sacks leader Aidan Hubbard and eight players who were thrust into important roles as freshmen or sophomores. Size could be an issue up front, but Northwestern will play annoying and effective defense again.

Lujan was brilliant at SDSU, but his offense also had talent and size advantages and absurd experience levels. His first Northwestern offense ... won't have those things. The line returns 39 of last year's 65 starts and adds Colorado guard Jack Bailey, but veteran back Cam Porter has rarely had room to run in his career. He and sophomore Joseph Himon II give Lujan a couple of pass-catching options out of the backfield, and senior Bryce Kirtz is among the league's more underrated receivers. The quarterback situation, however, appears dicey. Veteran Ryan Hilinski has a 49.3 Total QBR and 57% completion rate for his career, Mississippi State transfer Mike Wright is at 45.1 and 56%, respectively, and sophomore Jack Lausch is unproven.

My favorite player: WR Bryce Kirtz. After catching 44 passes in parts of four seasons, Kirtz suddenly became a legit threat in 2023, and he did so in delightfully categorized fashion.

Almost all of Kirtz's catches came in one of four buckets. He's a solid efficiency option near the line, but if you bite on a quick pass, he can burn you down the sideline, and if you leave him open over the middle, that's where he'll do most of his damage. A fun all-around option ... if he has a QB.

 

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Michigan State Spartans​

Head coach: Jonathan Smith (first year)

2024 projection: 82nd in SP+, 4.4 average wins (2.3 in Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith pulled off an epic rebuild at Oregon State. He's taking on another one in East Lansing, and it might take him a little while to get things going. Only five regulars and three starters return from an offense that collapsed to 122nd in offensive SP+; the defense was decent, but only seven of 15 players with 200 snaps return there, too.

The defense was further along than the offense, but it still says something that Smith felt the need to bring in 15 transfers for proven coordinator Joe Rossi. The line gets a complete makeover, but Smith found a potential gem in Middle Tennessee end Quindarius Dunnigan (8.5 TFLs, 11 run stops), and sophomore holdover Jalen Thompson was good in a small sample. The linebacking corps could get a boost from ODU linebacker Wayne Matthews III (10.5 TFLs, 21 run stops), too, and the combination of UCF safety Nikai Martinez and Arizona State corner Ed Woods with returning safety Angelo Grose and corners Chance Rucker and Dillon Tatum could give the Spartans a particularly disruptive secondary.

It's harder to find room for immediate optimism on offense because of just how dire things got last season, but I like the moves Smith made. He added both a veteran quarterback in North Dakota's Tommy Schuster (one of my favorite FCS QBs the past few years) and a blue-chip sophomore in Oregon State's Aidan Chiles. To the skill corps he added 1,100-yard rusher Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams (UMass) and tight end Jack Velling (Oregon State) and held on to leading receiver Montorie Foster Jr. There's potential there, but only one of seven linemen with at least 200 snaps returns, and Smith signed only three transfer linemen. Depth up front is beyond tenuous.

My favorite player: QB Aidan Chiles. One of Smith's more highly touted OSU signees, Chiles saw only 94 snaps while backing up D.J. Uiagalelei last season, but he was outstanding. He completed 24 of 35 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns and, outside of four sacks (admittedly far too many for 42 dropbacks), rushed 13 times for 107 yards. If he doesn't run himself into too many sacks, he could single-handedly drag the MSU offense toward competence.

 

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Indiana Hoosiers​

Head coach: Curt Cignetti (first year)

2024 projection: 85th in SP+, 4.9 average wins (2.3 in Big Ten)

The Indiana Dukes, everybody! In replacing Tom Allen, IU not only hired James Madison's Curt Cignetti to run its football program, it also basically imported JMU's roster. By my count, Cignetti brought 13 players with him, including stars in WR Elijah Sarratt, DE Mikail Kamara, DT James Carpenter, LBs Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker and CB D'Angelo Ponds.

On one hand, this makes perfect sense: JMU has been a much better football team than Indiana for at least the past couple of seasons. On the other hand, as Colorado State has taught us, bringing a ton of players with you isn't guaranteed to enhance culture or chemistry: Jay Norvell brought quite a few players with him from Nevada, and CSU tanked.

Cignetti didn't stop with JMU imports. He has landed 30 in all, including quarterback Kurtis Rourke (Ohio); backs Elijah Green (North Carolina) and Justice Ellison (Wake Forest); receivers Miles Cross (Ohio), Myles Price (Texas Tech) and Ke'Shawn Williams (Wake Forest); guard Trey Wedig (Wisconsin); defensive tackle CJ West (Kent State); corner Cedarius Doss (Austin Peay); and safeties Shawn Asbury II (ODU) and Terry Jones Jr. (ODU). Either Rourke or sophomore Tayven Jackson will start behind center. Along with the newbies, holdover receivers Donaven McCulley and E.J. Williams Jr., defensive ends Jacob Mangum-Farrar and Lanell Carr Jr. and corners Jamari Sharpe and Nic Toomer should provide quality.

Like Washington, Indiana is impossible to project. The portal seems to have produced quite a few upgrades, and Cignetti is a proven head coach. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers exceeded projections by quite a bit. But crafting something cohesive out of this many new guys is not guaranteed.

My favorite player: DE Mikail Kamara. We'll see how much damage Cignetti's Sun Belt All-Star team can do this year, but I'm not even slightly worried about Kamara. The 6-2, 270-pound end was one of the most disruptive players in college football in 2023, racking up 17.5 TFLs (with 7.5 sacks), 2 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles.

In all, his individual havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) was the highest in the nation for a defensive lineman.