✔️AAC 2024 Preview & Breakdown

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AAC 2024 preview: Breaking down Memphis, Tulane, Army and other contenders​

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The American Athletic Conference may have forever rebelled against the idea of a Group of 5, but it also spent most of the past decade ruling that universe. It nabbed seven of the G5's last nine New Year's Six bowl bids, scored maybe the two most impressive G5 wins of the era -- Houston's 38-24 thumping of Florida State in the 2015 Peach Bowl and UCF's 34-27 win over Auburn in the 2017 Peach Bowl -- and, through Cincinnati in 2021, landed the G5's only College Football Playoff bid. (And as I will forever remind everyone, while the Bearcats might have gotten thumped by Alabama in the CFP, they fared better than Michigan did against Georgia on the same day.)

Houston, UCF and Cincinnati are no longer in the AAC, however, leaving for the Big 12 in 2023. Memphis and Tulane, who scored NY6 bids in 2019 and 2022, are still around, and they're among the favorites to win the conference in 2024. But as we head into a new era, with an expanded 12-team CFP, the AAC is just a member of the pack.

The AAC's average SP+ rating in 2023, the first year after it traded quality for quantity -- in the form of six Conference USA teams who went a combined 31-43 and averaged an SP+ ranking of 97.2 -- ranked just eighth among FBS' 10 conferences and third among the Group of 5. After losing defending champion SMU to the ACC, it starts out eighth in 2024, too. But it has Memphis, maybe this year's most high-upside G5 team. In Tulane and UTSA (easily the shining light of the CUSA imports), it has two teams that aren't too far from the top of the G5 mountain. In USF, it has an intriguing turnaround story. It has Army now, too! The AAC of the 12-team CFP era isn't the AAC of the four-team era, but it's still got loads of storylines to follow.

Let's preview the AAC!

2023 recap​

SMU won the AAC in its last year in the conference, but here's how this year's members performed last year.

TEAM	REC. (CONF)	SP+ RK	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	ST SP+
UTSA (AAC)	9-4 (7-1)	5.4 (48)	31.3 (36)	27.3 (74)	1.4 (24)
Memphis (AAC)	10-3 (6-2)	3.5 (55)	37.1 (10)	33.8 (111)	0.3 (62)
Tulane (AAC)	11-3 (8-1)	2.8 (59)	26.5 (66)	24.4 (47)	0.8 (48)
Army (Indies)	6-6	-4.0 (79)	18.4 (114)	22.5 (37)	0.1 (69)
USF (AAC)	7-6 (4-4)	-6.6 (85)	28.4 (55)	34.5 (117)	-0.4 (81)
N. Texas (AAC)	5-7 (3-5)	-6.7 (86)	32.9 (27)	41.3 (133)	1.7 (13)
FAU (AAC)	4-8 (3-5)	-9.4 (100)	19.8 (104)	27.9 (80)	-1.2 (103)
Rice (AAC)	6-7 (4-4)	-10.2 (103)	26.0 (69)	34.4 (114)	-1.8 (118)
ECU (AAC)	2-10 (1-7)	-12.8 (111)	15.4 (124)	28.1 (81)	-0.1 (75)
Navy (AAC)	5-7 (4-4)	-13.7 (113)	15.0 (126)	27.2 (71)	-1.5 (107)
Tulsa (AAC)	4-8 (2-6)	-13.7 (114)	20.9 (99)	34.7 (118)	0.1 (67)
UAB (AAC)	4-8 (3-5)	-14.7 (117)	26.9 (64)	39.6 (132)	-2.1 (133)
Temple (AAC)	3-9 (1-7)	-21.0 (127)	18.6 (110)	37.8 (130)	-1.9 (122)
Charlotte (AAC)	3-9 (2-6)	-21.4 (129)	14.8 (127)	34.4 (115)	-1.8 (117)

Almost nothing separated Tulane, Memphis and UTSA on paper, and Tulane worked its way into a second straight AAC Championship Game by faring the best in close games: The Green Wave were 4-0 in one-score finishes, all in AAC games, and that got them to the finish line before a home loss to SMU.

After a couple of solid seasons, East Carolina collapsed to 2-10 under the weight of lost production and close losses (the Pirates were Bizarro Tulane, going 0-4 in one-score finishes), while USF pulled the opposite, charging from 1-11 to 7-6 under Alex Golesh thanks to a spicy offense. Among AAC newbies, North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Rice were decent, while UAB was one-dimensional (offense good, defense horrendous) and Charlotte started on the ground floor with new coach Biff Poggi. Tulsa showed early promise under first-year coach Kevin Wilson before collapsing, and Temple ... never really showed promise under second-year Stan Drayton.

Army still held superiority over Navy despite unsuccessful changes to its offense; both teams improved late in the season, but Army's 17-11 win over Brian Newberry's first Midshipmen team allowed them to finish the year on a four-game winning streak. Then the Black Knights became a football-only AAC member. (Though they'll still play Navy as a nonconference rival because not everything is allowed to make sense.)

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2024 projections​

TEAM	SP+ (RK)	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W	SOS RK
Memphis	7.2 (39)	40.5 (9)	33.4 (102)	9.0	6.3	92
UTSA	1.7 (53)	30.6 (52)	28.9 (70)	8.4	5.9	83
Tulane	-1.3 (65)	25.7 (72)	27.0 (55)	7.0	5.4	85
USF	-4.1 (76)	31.1 (47)	35.2 (118)	6.7	4.8	69
ECU	-10.6 (99)	17.9 (116)	28.4 (67)	6.2	4.3	124
Army	-9.3 (95)	18.7 (112)	28.0 (63)	6.4	4.3	102
Rice	-6.4 (89)	26.5 (69)	32.9 (98)	6.7	3.9	117
FAU	-14.2 (115)	15.5 (124)	29.7 (78)	6.0	3.5	134
Navy	-11.6 (108)	16.0 (122)	27.6 (61)	5.2	3.5	93
N. Texas	-11.7 (109)	30.6 (53)	42.3 (133)	5.1	3.4	106
UAB	-11.4 (105)	31.6 (40)	43.0 (134)	5.8	3.4	115
Tulsa	-14.3 (116)	23.2 (85)	37.5 (126)	5.1	3.3	118
Charlotte	-19.0 (127)	16.7 (121)	35.7 (120)	3.2	2.0	112
Temple	-21.8 (132)	18.0 (115)	39.8 (131)	2.9	2.0	97

We don't see much projected change here. Last year's top three (among AAC returnees) is the same as this year's, and while ECU is projected to bounce back, we're otherwise looking at the same teams that hovered around .500 doing so again and the same teams scrapping near the bottom of the standings doing so again.

AAC Title Odds​

TEAM	CONF. TITLE %	11+ WINS %	6+ WINS %	RET PROD (RK)	OFF RET	DEF RET
Memphis	33.9%	11.8%	99.4%	70.3% (22)	72.3% (31)	68.3% (35)
UTSA	20.6%	4.2%	98.2%	59.1% (84)	56.3% (86)	62.0% (57)
Tulane	13.2%	0.5%	85.3%	54.0% (96)	54.0% (90)	54.0% (97)
USF	8.1%	0.1%	80.1%	79.5% (8)	87.3% (5)	71.6% (24)
ECU	3.7%	0.2%	67.1%	59.6% (79)	61.3% (69)	58.0% (76)
Army	5.5%	0.2%	47.5%	47.0% (110)	58.5% (76)	35.6% (128)
Rice	4.8%	0.5%	76.8%	81.1% (5)	72.8% (28)	89.3% (1)
FAU	1.7%	0.2%	62.8%	43.5% (121)	35.9% (122)	51.0% (105)
Navy	2.6%	0.0%	40.8%	65.3% (50)	62.6% (62)	68.0% (37)
N. Texas	1.9%	0.0%	38.3%	49.9% (104)	43.4% (115)	56.4% (87)
UAB	2.0%	0.1%	58.5%	64.5% (58)	84.8% (7)	44.2% (117)
Tulsa	1.4%	0.0%	39.5%	46.5% (112)	56.3% (85)	36.7% (127)
Charlotte	0.3%	0.0%	5.9%	54.5% (95)	58.1% (77)	50.8% (106)
Temple	0.2%	0.0%	3.7%	36.7% (130)	40.2% (119)	33.2% (130)

Memphis indeed starts out as the highest-ranked G5 team, but the Tigers' schedule features some serious hurdles. They play Florida State in Tallahassee in Week 3 (a week after playing two-time defending Sun Belt champion Troy, no less), and they play the teams projected second, third and fourth in the conference all on the road. Assuming you probably have to finish at least 12-1 to get a likely crack at the G5's playoff bid -- not a guarantee, but certainly a possibility -- that means Memphis is going to have to be a hell of a road team to live up to its promise.

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Five best games of 2024​

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

USF at Tulane (Sept. 28). After going a combined 8-37 from 2019-22, USF indeed charged to seven wins in Year 1 with Golesh. And we'll know just how dangerous the Bulls are by the end of a September run that sees them travel to Alabama and host Miami before heading to New Orleans for this one.

Memphis at USF (Oct. 11). The first of three huge in-conference road trips and the one Memphis can probably least afford to lose. Memphis won this matchup 59-50 in 2023, and the odds of a similarly ridiculous track meet in 2024 are solid.

UTSA at Rice (Oct. 12). After a tricky nonconference slate featuring two in-state road trips (at Texas State in Week 2, at Texas in Week 3), UTSA starts AAC play with trips to ECU and Rice. The closing stretch is loaded with home games, but that's a hell of a gauntlet over the first half of the season.

Memphis at UTSA (Nov. 2). Now to the brass tacks. Both Memphis and UTSA are projected favorites in each of the five games leading up to this one. Will both be entertaining CFP hopes entering November, or will one of them have tripped up before then?

Memphis at Tulane (Nov. 28). Quite possibly an AAC championship elimination game over Thanksgiving weekend. That, or the first of back-to-back Memphis-Tulane games.

 

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Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders​

Memphis Tigers​

Head coach: Ryan Silverfield (fifth year, 31-19 overall)

2024 projection: 39th in SP+, 9.0 average wins (6.3 in AAC)

When we get to the SEC previews here in a few more weeks, we'll talk about the new-to-college football concept of "going all-in." We see it in pro sports all the time -- a team has a shot at the title and sells a bit of its future to get that one missing veteran who's absolutely going to push them over the top at the trade deadline. You can't spend like you currently are for too long, but you've got a shot a ring, dammit, so deal with the consequences later. Ole Miss certainly seems like it's doing that this year, continuing to add any transfer who has the chance to make the team even 1% better. You can make a case that Missouri has done the same.

It feels like Memphis is doing the same thing. After a solid 10-3 season in 2023 -- one in which they were a pair of tight losses to Missouri and SMU away from something even greater -- the Tigers were able to hold onto 3,800-yard passer Seth Henigan and the dynamite receiving duo of Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee. And of the 19 defenders who started at least one game in 2023, 12 are back. Even if they hadn't added a single transfer, they'd have had one of the more proven cores in the AAC. But Silverfield didn't just add some transfers, he added all the transfers: 29 in all, including Tennessee's leading tackler (linebacker Elijah Herring), South Carolina's leading rusher (Mario Anderson), and nine other guys who were starting for FBS schools last year, plus five FCS standouts such as linebacker Rodney Dansby (Houston Christian), linebacker Jayden Flaker (NC Central) and cornerback Jaidyn Denis (Elon). He brought in nine players to supplement a dynamite offense that finished 10th in offensive SP+ last season. He brought in 20 more to prop up a defense that ranked a dismal 111th and allowed over 28 points eight times. And just for grins, Silverfield added five juco transfers, too.

Is this actually a smart thing to do? Is there any way this team has the requisite chemistry it will need to play its way into the College Football Playoff? I don't know. And I don't know if the imported depth will be enough to overcome trips to FSU and the three next-best teams in the AAC with only one defeat at most. But I do know that this team has a volume of power-conference talent that at least half of the teams in power conferences can't match. Memphis lost only to a top-10 finisher and the two teams in the AAC championship last year and went all-in. I respect it. Now let's see if it actually works out.

My favorite player: WR Roc Taylor. Silverfield wasn't shy about importing talent through the portal even before this year, but the pitch-and-catch combo of Henigan-to-Taylor is homegrown and spectacular. After two middling seasons, Taylor suddenly became one of the best receivers in the country in 2023.

There almost isn't a single route Taylor attempts that doesn't bear serious fruit, as evidenced by this extremely green route tree.

Against USF, four of Taylor's five catches came on screens or curl routes, and he ended up with 159 yards and two touchdowns (including an 85-yarder). He also caught a pair of deep go routes on his way to seven catches and 143 yards against Missouri. He finished the season with six 100-yard games. He can do it all.

 

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UTSA Roadrunners​

Head coach: Jeff Traylor (fifth year, 39-14 overall)

2024 projection: 53rd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.9 in AAC)

He reportedly interviewed for the Texas A&M and Houston jobs. He's been linked to basically every power-conference job in the state, whether it's been open at some point or not. But after 32 wins in three years and a successful transition to the AAC, Jeff Traylor is still in San Antonio.

In theory, this could be a great thing. Assuming he has a solid replacement for longtime starting quarterback Frank Harris, his Roadrunners will have a lot to offer. Including receiver De'Corian Clark, a 2022 starter who missed last season with injury, he has seven other starters returning on offense, including a potential star in young receiver Devin McCuin. Quarterback Owen McCown looked solid in UTSA's bowl blowout of Marshall (22-for-31 for 251 yards), and the Roadrunners return 11 defenders who saw at least 245 snaps on a unit that improved to 74th in defensive SP+. That includes high-level playmakers like lineman Nick Booker-Brown and edge rusher Jimmori Robinson. Traylor also reeled in some disruptive transfers like linebacker Brevin Randle (Louisiana Tech), corner Zach Morris (New Mexico) and safety Jermarius Lewis (New Mexico), plus former blue-chippers in former Alabama linebackers Kendrick Blackshire and Ian Jackson and former LSU corner Denver Harris. He added some former blue-chippers on offense, too: Alabama State-via-Auburn quarterback Dematrius Davis, TCU receiver DJ Allen and Houston lineman Jaylen Garth.

UTSA started poorly last season, going 1-3 with Harris in and out of the lineup and underachieving by 10.1 points per game. But the Roadrunners won eight of their last nine and overachieved against projections seven times, eventually finishing in the SP+ top 50 for the first time. Despite all the blowing winds from the coaching carousel, the vibes were good. The depth: also good. Experience: good. Recent recruiting: good.

That's lots of good! But it's always easy to fear Gary Darnell-itis, too. Darnell was one of the hottest names in coaching in the late-1990s, leading Western Michigan to 31 wins in four seasons. He was linked to a number of bigger jobs but didn't land any of them. And in his last four years at WMU, he won 15 games. Sometimes you miss your window.

Sometimes you're just a really good coach, though. There is evidence for believing that Traylor will just keep right on winning in San Antonio. He's been responsible for four of the five best seasons in the school's young football lifetime, and he might keep adding to that tally.

My favorite player: OLB Jimmori Robinson. I've learned over time that an individual havoc rate -- TFLs, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles per snap -- over 2.0% is nicely disruptive. Over 3.0% is dynamite. Robinson was at 3.2%. He recorded 26 pressures and 4.5 sacks, and 15 of his 37 tackles were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He batted down a couple of passes, too. UTSA has a heavy hitter to replace with rush end Trey Moore transferring to Texas, but that might just mean more playmaking opportunities for Robinson.

 

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Tulane Green Wave​

Head coach: Jon Sumrall (first year)

2024 projection: 65th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (5.4 in AAC)

In the eight seasons before Willie Fritz's arrival in New Orleans, Tulane won a total of 26 games. In his last two, the Green Wave won 23. His roster slowly took on more talent and athleticism as Tulane bowled three straight years from 2018-20. And after a hurricane-disrupted, two-win collapse in 2021 came a massive breakthrough. Tulane went 12-2 with an AAC title and a Cotton Bowl win over USC in 2022, then backed it up with another 11 wins and AAC championship appearance in 2023. Fritz left for Houston this offseason, but he handed successor Jon Sumrall a much more high-upside job than the one he inherited.

Sumrall still had some roster construction to do. He inherited exciting pieces like sophomore running back Makhi Hughes, efficiency receiver Yulkeith Brown, active defensive tackle Patrick Jenkins and tackling-machine linebackers Jesus Machado and Tyler Grubbs. But quarterback Michael Pratt, his top two receivers and nearly the entire secondary are gone, and despite tricky admissions standards, Sumrall used the transfer portal to restock. He brought a few Troy players with him, but he also nabbed former blue-chippers like quarterback Ty Thompson (Oregon) and receivers Mario Williams (USC), Shazz Preston (Bama) and Khai Prean (LSU). (Say this much about the transfer portal: It redistributes talent in an intriguing way. Lots more schools have former blue-chippers than they used to.)

In all, Sumrall brought in 10 offensive transfers and 11 on defense, including six for a secondary that indeed needed an infusion. He also brought his Troy coordinators, Joe Craddock (offense) and Greg Gasparato (defense), and why not? When you pull off what Sumrall did at Troy -- he took over a team that had won 15 games in three years and won 23 in two, with matching Sun Belt titles -- you probably see continuity as a good thing. Troy was top-30 in defensive SP+ in both of Gasparato's seasons and leaped from 85th to 42nd on offense last year, too.

Tulane has finished in the SP+ top 60 in four of five seasons after doing so twice in 37 years. It's difficult to avoid regression after such a run, but the Sumrall hire was extremely logical, and the athleticism levels are high.

My favorite player: RB Makhi Hughes. "When [player] rushes for 100 yards, [team] is [great record]." We see stats like that quite a bit, and they're often not very useful. Typically, you run the ball when you're winning the game, so the running back's stats are just benefiting from that lead.

With Hughes in 2023, however, his contributions made a massive difference. The Wave won seven games by 13 or fewer points, and in those games he scored six touchdowns and averaged 133 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. In Tulane's seven other games, all losses and/or comfortable wins? He scored once and averaged 64 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. He came up big when Tulane most needed him, and he did it as a redshirt freshman.

 

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A couple of breaks away from a run​

South Florida Bulls​

Head coach: Alex Golesh (second year, 7-6 overall)

2024 projection: 76th in SP+, 6.7 average wins (4.8 in AAC)

USF was hopeless. After two thrilling seasons in 2016-17, in which the Bulls went a combined 21-4 with two elite offenses, the bottom fell out slowly, then quickly. Charlie Strong could not maintain the momentum he inherited from Willie Taggart and fell from 10-2 to 7-6 to 4-8. Then Jeff Scott took over and went 4-26. It appeared former Josh Heupel assistant Alex Golesh had inherited a long-term rebuild when he arrived in 2023. That impression doubled when he handed the starting QB job to a redshirt freshman, Byrum Brown.

The long term is still important, but Golesh aced the short term. With Brown throwing for 3,292 yards and rushing for 1,033 more (not including sacks), and with slot man Sean Atkins catching 92 balls for 1,054 yards, USF ran Golesh's tempo-heavy offense with aplomb (most plays per game, fourth-most drives per game) and ranked a healthy 55th in offensive SP+. The defense, meanwhile, went from inexcusably awful to merely bad. USF gave Alabama and Memphis fits, and while they were up-and-down all year, the Bulls finished 6-6, then humiliated Syracuse, 45-0, in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Even better: The Bulls rank eighth in returning production. Almost all of the reasons for last season's improvement return, from Brown and Atkins to running back Nay'Quan Wright, four starting offensive linemen and 10 of the 14 defenders who saw at least 300 snaps. The run game wasn't reliable yet -- Wright averaged only 4.4 yards per carry, 1.7 before contact -- and the aggressive defense still gave up more big plays than it made. Still, the promise was clear. And in tackle Rashad Cheney, linebacker DJ Gordon IV and corners Aamaris Brown and Tavin Ward, the defense has some players who could make it a bit more "all" and less "nothing." (Plus, hey, the bar is still pretty low on D. Improving to 100th would be another clear step forward. The defense was really, really bad in 2022.)

My favorite player: QB Byrum Brown. He's a hell of a scrambler (7.5 yards per), he can move the chains on designed runs, and he gets the ball out of his hands quickly and accurately. With just a little bit more downfield accuracy, he would be one of the more complete quarterbacks in the country. That's still a bit of an issue at the moment, though.

Sometimes he rushed more when the passing wasn't working, but all of his potential overlapped in the incredible 59-50 loss to Memphis. Against the Tigers, he went 31-of-38 for 357 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 100 yards with no sacks. Memphis' defense wasn't very good, but it wasn't as bad as he made it look.

 

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East Carolina Pir0ates​

Head coach: Mike Houston (sixth year, 24-34 overall)

2024 projection: 99th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.3 in AAC)

The good news: It wasn't as bad as the record made it seem. After snapping a long slump with back-to-back winning seasons in 2021-22, East Carolina plummeted to 2-10 in 2023. It was the Pirates' worst record since a 1-11 and 2-9 combination in 2003-04, but this one included four one-score losses and a decent amount of misfortune. Despite the worst record in the conference, they finished higher than five AAC foes in SP+. That doesn't mean the losses didn't count, but it probably means a rebound is likely.

The bad news: They were still bad. The Pirates' No. 111 final ranking was their worst since 2018, Scottie Montgomery's last year in charge. The defense was aggressive and exciting, but the offense completely collapsed. After a slow but steady rebuild over his first four years, Mike Houston found out that the floor is still pretty low in Greenville.

More good news: The defense should be even better. After ranking second nationally in rushing success rate allowed, coordinator Blake Harrell gets almost his entire defensive line back, including tackles D'Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens (combined: 19 TFLs, 25 run stops). The linebacking corps lost four of its top five, but returnee Mike Edwards III is excellent, and if one of three transfers clicks, they'll be fine. The secondary returns five of last year's top eight and adds three power conference transfers. ECU hasn't had a top-60 defense, per SP+, since 2014, but this one has a chance.

More bad news: The offense should still hold ECU back. The Pirates had the worst success rate in the country last year, and lest you think they were in some way all-or-nothing: No, that requires "alls." Experience should create some level of improvement, but aside from sophomore receiver Chase Sowell and maybe sophomore RB Javious Bond, it's hard to say there's much known upside here. Coordinator John David Baker needs a load-bearing quarterback to lift this offense, and if nothing else, the Pirates have volume on their side. Houston brought in three transfers -- Michigan State's Katin Houser, Missouri's Jake Garcia and Georgia State's Bryson Harrison -- and has two mid-three-star youngsters as well. We'll see.

My favorite player: CB Shavon Revel. He'll give you the short stuff sometimes. Take it because going downfield probably isn't going to go very well.

A lanky, 6-foot-3 senior, Revel pulled off a rare combo with one interception and 11 breakups in coverage, plus seven run stops among 3.5 TFLs. He's perfect for the physical defense Harrell has built.

 

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Army Black Knights​

Head coach: Jeff Monken (11th year, 70-55 overall)

2024 projection: 95th in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.3 in AAC)

Heading into 2022, the NCAA made changes to the cut-block rules, basically banning below-the-waist blocking outside the tackle box. That's typically an important piece of the flexbone option that Army and Navy have used to great effect in the 2000s, so despite still managing decent offensive numbers in 2022, Army's Jeff Monken attempted to innovate last fall. He brought in Drew Thatcher and Matt Drinkall, small-school coaches who had manned exciting and unique run games at lower levels of college football, as co-coordinators. The Black Knights went from lining up in the shotgun 10% of the time in 2022 to 80% in 2023. They went from running 90% of the time on standard downs all the way down to 81%. They tried to incorporate some new ideas here and there.

They also fell from 42nd to 99th in success rate and from 26th to 92nd in red zone touchdown rate. Against seven common opponents, they averaged 27.7 points per game in 2022 and 18.9 in 2023. They perked up late, however, when staff holdover Cody Worley took over the playcalling, going back to basics to a degree and rushing for 365 yards in a 28-21 upset of Coastal Carolina.

Worley is now the coordinator, and it sure seems like Army is going to move back toward what wasn't entirely broken in 2022. It fits quarterback Bryson Daily pretty well, and hitting the line quickly could do great things for 220-pound sophomore Kanye Udoh, who still averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season. The line has five players with starting experience, too.

That's good because a good defense has a lot to replace. Coordinator Nate Woody has fielded two top-40 defenses, per SP+, in the last four years; the Black Knights pulled off the "don't allow big plays, and play killer red zone defense" act beautifully last season, but they're replacing 10 of the 13 players with more than 300 defensive snaps. Service academy programs get used to dealing with turnover, but, well, that's a lot of turnover.

My favorite player: RB Kanye Udoh. Most rushers enjoy higher per-carry averages outside the tackles. Udoh, not so much. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry on the outside, 5.1 up the middle and 6.2 toward the guards. The tighter the quarters, the better he fared, and he rushed 13 times for 88 yards against Navy in the finale.

 

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Rice Owls​

Head coach: Mike Bloomgren (seventh year, 22-46 overall)

2024 projection: 89th in SP+, 6.7 average wins (3.9 in AAC)

Bloomgren's Rice controls what it can control. The former longtime Stanford assistant has slowly crafted a pretty solid early-2010s Stanford facsimile. The Owls boast a huge offensive line -- nine linemen at least 6-foot-6, eight at least 315 pounds -- and a physical secondary, and they're solid punching against their own (quality) weight class. Against better teams, they aren't going to spring many surprises. But they won six games for the first time in nine years last fall, and they did so by beating the beatable teams.

Rice vs. SP+ top 85: 0-6 (average score: opponent 37.3, Rice 22.2)

Rice vs. teams 86th or worse: 6-1 (average score: Rice 35.9, opponent 20.1)

Rice's 2024 schedule features seven games against teams projected 95th or worse in SP+. Guess they're bowling again!

Rice actually faces an interesting situation regarding returning production. They lost their two most recognizable players -- quarterback JT Daniels and receiver Luke McCaffrey -- but they return almost literally everyone else of consequence, including running back Dean Connors (1,174 scrimmage yards, 10 TDs), five starting offensive linemen (if you include 2022 starter John Long, injured in 2023) and 14 of the 16 defenders with at least 200 snaps. Six players made at least seven run stops, and five return. Five players made at least four sacks, and four return. Five players defensed (intercepted or broke up) at least four passes, and four return. They're fifth nationally in returning production, and I didn't realize it was possible to do that without returning your starting QB.

If a reasonably decent quarterback emerges, Rice should be a similar or better version of last year's Rice. Redshirt freshman AJ Padgett filled in late in the season for the oft-injured Daniels, but the greater hope may come from Temple transfer E.J. Warner, who threw for 6,104 yards and 41 TDs in two years with the other Owls. (Yes, he's the son of Kurt.)

My favorite player: RB Dean Connors. OK, yes, this is one of the sillier charts I've made -- the X- and Y-axes aren't really all that related. But as a redshirt freshman, Connors proved very good at two specific things in 2023: breaking tackles and catching passes.

 

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Just looking for a path to 6-6​

FAU Owls​

Head coach: Tom Herman (second year, 4-8 overall)

2024 projection: 115th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (3.5 in AAC)

It's easy to see FAU's football potential. Location: very close to plenty of solid recruits. Stadium: pretty new and good enough to host a bowl game. Ceiling: high, as evidenced by the Owls' two 11-win, Conference USA-winning seasons under Lane Kiffin.

This potential helped to get FAU invited to the AAC. But it's only really shown up under Kiffin. In their last 15 seasons outside of the 2017-19 Kiffin era, they've averaged a 102.8 SP+ ranking and produced a win percentage of 0.374. That's better than Shula Bowl rival FIU's numbers -- FIU was left behind in CUSA -- but not by much.

I assumed former Houston and Texas coach Tom Herman would make things work pretty quickly, but he couldn't get the offense moving, and FAU went 4-8 with a No. 100 SP+ ranking that was FAU's worst since the year before Kiffin arrived.

Herman's second season will be highlighted by two conflicting things: massive turnover and the easiest schedule in the country. The Owls rank 121st in returning production, and Herman completely overhauled the depth chart at quarterback (Marshall transfer Cameron Fancher is the most likely starter), wide receiver (six incoming transfers) and defensive line (six more transfers). The list of proven athletes is not long. Cornerback Daedae Hill is excellent (he allowed a 29.0 QBR), safety transfer Phillip Dunnam (Indiana) is a physical risk-taker, linebackers Jackson Ambush and Desmond Tisdol are experienced and well-rounded, and defensive tackle transfer Bryce Langston (LSU) is a 300-pound former blue-chipper. But no running back rushed for more than 117 yards, no receiver topped 500 yards, only one starting O-lineman returns, and Fancher ranked 96th in Total QBR. The offense could struggle.

They're projected to slip to 115th in SP+ ... but they play seven teams projected 109th or worse and only one projected better than 76th. They're going to have lots of opportunities to find six wins and create some semblance of program momentum. That's good because it seems like the Kiffin bump has run out.

My favorite player: C Federico Maranges. The 6-foot-4, 300-pounder from Puerto Rico signed for Kiffin and started for a year under Willie Taggart, and in his first year starting for Herman he was elected captain and generated a team-low 0.9% blown block rate.

 

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Navy Midshipmen​

Head coach: Brian Newberry (second year, 5-7 overall)

2024 projection: 108th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.5 in AAC)

The one redeeming aspect of Army's offense: It was still better than Navy's. The Black Knights ranked 114th in offensive SP+ last season, but the Midshipmen plummeted from 89th all the way down to 126th. Offense is the primary issue for the service academies at the moment -- all three of them have figured out how to play annoying, opportunistic defenses of late -- but Navy just hasn't had much to offer on O. That didn't change in Brian Newberry's first season succeeding Ken Niumatalolo.

Here comes Drew Cronic to try to fix that. The former Mercer head coach led the Bears to their first ever FCS playoff appearance last year thanks in part to a delightful and run-heavy attack that he's honed at basically every level of the sport down to NAIA. Cronic inherits some big options in junior running back Alex Tecza (6-foot-0, 204 pounds, 6.0 yards per carry) and quarterback Braxton Woodson (6-foot-3, 215), who flashed some jets as a freshman.

Eight different offensive linemen started at least one game last year; that's typically a bad sign, but five of them return, at least.

Defense is Newberry's specialty -- he was defensive coordinator for four years before succeeding Niumatalolo -- and Navy was once again solid in that department last year. The Midshipmen return two players with double-digit TFLs each (end Justin Reed and OLB Luke Pirris) and two with four interceptions each (safety Rayuan Lane III and corner Dashaun Peele); that's quite a luxury. They've averaged a 67.6 defensive SP+ ranking since Newberry arrived, and they should hit that mark again.

My favorite player: DE Justin Reed. You'll rarely see a defender whose playmaking so perfectly correlates with success.

Navy vs. FBS opponents when Reed makes 0-1 havoc plays*: 1-7, allowing 29.9 PPG

Navy when he makes 2+: 3-0, allowing 10.0 PPG

He torched UAB, East Carolina and North Texas for a combined 21 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, four run stops, 14 pressures, 3.5 sacks and a fumble recovery, and Navy won all three games, two by double digits. That two of those games came late in the season was particularly encouraging.

(* Havoc plays = TFLs, interceptions, breakups and forced fumbles)

 

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North Texas Mean Green​

Head coach: Eric Morris (second year, 5-7 overall)

2024 projection: 109th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.5 in AAC)

Back when I was staying up all night playing EA College Football in college (and, um, after college), it felt inevitable. While I was leading an Akron or Louisiana-Monroe to multiple national titles in dynasty mode, North Texas would slowly become a top-five team as well. It was like the EA engine just couldn't stop it from happening. Team located near one of the country's best recruiting hotspots? With a newish stadium and, again, Texas recruiting? That has to be a powerhouse, right?

It would also confuse the EA engine, then, that UNT just can't both get it and keep it together. In the 29 seasons since their return to FBS, the Mean Green have averaged just 4.6 wins per season and a 100.1 average SP+ ranking. Seth Littrell won nine games twice in a row in Denton in 2017-18, but Darnell-itis struck, and he averaged just 5.3 wins per year from there. Morris succeeded him in 2023 and won a customary five.

The Mean Green ranked a healthy 27th in offensive SP+ last year, but they'll have about eight new starters on O. Former TCU Chandler Morris could take over at QB, and he'll have a pair of explosive slot receivers in Blair Conwright and Landon Sides. The return of running back Ikaika Ragsdale (890 scrimmage yards in 2022) from injury will help, too. But Morris signed five transfer linemen for a reason, and at least a couple of them will need to settle quickly.

On defense, well, the bar is low. The Mean Green were dead last in defensive SP+ last year and have ranked higher than 100th just once since 2013. Corner Ridge Texada and linebackers Jordan Brown and Ethan Wesloski are keepers, at least.

My favorite player: Slot receiver Landon Sides. This is one of my favorite target maps.

As a true freshman last season, Sides did almost all of his damage on screens and short passes, with 25 of his 30 catches coming on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and 17 coming within five yards. But when the opposing DB bit on the short stuff, it was over: On six targets thrown more than 10 yards downfield, he caught five for 114 yards and three touchdowns.

 

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UAB Blazers​

Head coach: Trent Dilfer (second year, 4-8 overall)

2024 projection: 105th in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.4 in AAC)

In last year's AAC preview, I didn't really hide the fact that I was ... skeptical of UAB's hire of Trent Dilfer to replace master builder Bill Clark: "In many ways, it was the college version of the Indianapolis Colts hiring Jeff Saturday. Dilfer is a former pro and former ESPN commentator whose only coaching experience to date came at the high school level. [...] Everything about this feels like a massive risk." One year in, I feel pretty justified in my skepticism. UAB just suffered through a 4-8 season, its worst since 2013 -- the year before Clark arrived -- and the Blazers' No. 117 SP+ ranking was their worst ever.

Despite all this, the offense was extremely promising. UAB ranked a solid 45th in points per drive and 16th in yards per drive thanks to a well-rounded offense coordinated by Alex Mortensen (son of the late Craig). They alternated between solid rushing, a strong quick-pass game and effective downfield passing. Former Baylor quarterback Jacob Zeno was a great vessel for this system, completing 74% of his (mostly short) passes and averaging 5.4 yards per (non-sack) carry.

When I talk about quick passing, I mean it was quick passing.

Zeno threw the shortest passes in the country to some of the most wide open receivers. Among his top six targets, only sophomore WR Amare Thomas and senior TE Bryce Damous return, but lots of other receivers got their feet wet. It's the same story at running back, where leader Jermaine Brown Jr. is gone but backups Isaiah Jacobs and (especially) Lee Beebe were his relative equal. Throw in a line that returns almost intact, and you should have another good offense.

The offense had to be on at all times in 2023, however, because UAB also ranked 132nd in defensive SP+ and 133rd on special teams. Ghastly. They played 11 FBS opponents and allowed at least 31 points 11 times. They attacked the ball hoping for turnovers and usually didn't get them. Twenty-four different defenders saw at least 100 snaps, and while half are gone, Dilfer signed a lineup's worth of transfers, the most intriguing of which are, to me, Purdue linebacker Octavious Brothers and Youngstown State DB Troy Jakubec. There's only one way to go for the defense: up.

My favorite player: QB Jacob Zeno. As a true freshman in 2019, Zeno subbed in and completed passes of 81 and 78 yards to nearly steal the Big 12 Championship for Baylor. Five years later, he'll wrap up his career in a system that seems perfectly crafted for his skill set. The transfer portal has dramatically increased roster chaos, but it's also resulted in more guys, like Zeno, finding a place that suits them.

 

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Tulsa Golden Hurricane​

Head coach: Kevin Wilson (second year, 4-8 overall)

2024 projection: 116th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (3.3 in AAC)

Tulsa has always fascinated me. The football program, that is. I've always appreciated the welcoming selection of Quik Trips, Braums and casinos awaiting right off of I-40 in the many times I've driven through it, and they play some wicked high school football in the Tulsa area. But I'm specifically talking about a Golden Hurricane program that has proven to have a solid and often exciting top-40 ceiling and a floor as low as just about any in FBS.

If you get that program rolling, you can beat some powers and threaten to win whatever conference you belong to at a given time. (In the last 40 years, the Golden Hurricane have managed to belong to the Missouri Valley, WAC, Conference USA and AAC and spend a decade as an independent.)

The peaks and valleys can follow each other pretty closely. Between 2007-18, TU won double-digit games five times and went 3-9 or worse four times. In 2020, the Hurricane won six in a row and nearly upset unbeaten Cincinnati, and in 2021 they finished the year with six wins in eight games. But they head into 2024 having lost 14 of their last 21 games.

Kevin Wilson's first season as head coach saw the same dismal defense that doomed the Philip Montgomery era and a total offensive reset. In his second season, he has to completely rebuild his defensive front six and plump up depth on an offensive line replacing six of its top nine. But quarterback play should be solid -- veteran Cooper Legas (Utah State) moves to town to battle with a couple of appealing sophomores (the mobile but sack-prone Cardell Williams and the more pocket-based Kirk Francis) -- and both Tulsa's leading rusher (Anthony Watkins) and receiver (Kamdyn Benjamin) return. It's hard to see the trench play settling in well enough to make a bowl push, but again: This is Tulsa. The collapses and rebounds are pretty sudden as a rule.

My favorite player: WR Kamdyn Benjamin. The former walk-on proved to have the most reliable set of hands in the Tulsa receiving corps. And the more targets he got, the more explosive he proved to be. In his last three games, he caught 22 passes for 393 yards and four touchdowns. If that's what we have to look forward to this year, the combination of Benjamin and big UTEP transfer Jeremiah Ballard could become one of the most explosive WR duos in the Group of Five.

 

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Charlotte 49ers​

Head coach: Biff Poggi (second year, 3-9 overall)

2024 projection: 127th in SP+, 3.2 average wins (2.0 in AAC)

A hedge-fund millionaire-turned-private school coach-turned-Jim Harbaugh guru-turned-cutoff shirt-wearing head coach, Biff Poggi is almost impossibly unique. His weird story makes you want him to succeed at Charlotte. A year into his tenure, though, we don't know if that will happen.

Will Healy's last 49ers team went 3-9 with a No. 128 SP+ ranking; Poggi's first team went 3-9 and ranked 129th. The defense got a little better but lost its two best players and most of its secondary. The offense got worse and lost almost its entire offensive line.

After bringing in 24 transfers last year, Poggi has brought in 27 more. Plenty of them have flashed upside, especially on offense: QB Max Brown (Florida) nearly led a road upset of Missouri, RB Cartevious Norton (Iowa State) had 22 rushes of 10-plus yards in two years, WR Justin Olson (MTSU) and TE Corey Dyches (Maryland) had ridiculously high catch rates, WR Khafre Brown (USF) averaged 16.1 yards per catch, and OG Mitchell Mayes started five games for Clemson. Defensively, there are lots of former mid-three and four-star prospects among the transfers, and color me intrigued by havoc-heavy Division II transfer Eltayeb Bushra (Fairmont State), who combined 9.5 TFLs with six interceptions and nine breakups last year.

There are a few holdovers worth noting -- tight end Colin Weber, defensive end Demon Clowney, outside linebacker Stone Handy, corner Dontae Balfour, dynamite return man Henry Rutledge -- but this will be a mostly new team, just like last year's. There's athleticism here, but despite massive personnel change, 2023 was almost identical to 2022. It's on Poggi and company to make 2024 any different. SP+ certainly doesn't think it will be.

My favorite player: CB Dontae Balfour. The average DB allowed 7.3 yards per attempt and a 57.4 QBR on targeted passes last year. Balfour was at 5.4 and 37.4, respectively. He picked off one pass and broke up 12 more while allowing just a 48% completion rate. Charlotte needs as much successful aggression as possible, and the 6-foot-2, 185-pounder brings a lot of it to the table.

 

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Temple Owls​

Head coach: Stan Drayton (third year, 6-18 overall)

2024 projection: 132nd in SP+, 2.8 average wins (2.0 in AAC)

Few schools did more to change their reputation in the 2000s than Temple. In the 22 seasons between 1987-2008, the Owls averaged a dire 2.5 wins per season; in 14 seasons in the Big East they won one or two games nine times. They were so bad that they got booted. But they found their footing in a rehab stint in the MAC, winning 26 games in three years. They got invited back to the Big East just in time for it to become the AAC, but they won 20 games and an AAC title under Matt Rhule in 2015-16, and in 11 years from 2009-19, they suffered only two losing seasons. This program was transferred into something sturdy and reliable.


That feels like it's in the past tense, though. In the last four years, the Owls have gone 10-33. They collapsed under Rod Carey, and after improving from 124th to 101st in 2022, Stan Drayton's first season in charge, they cratered all the way back to 127th last fall. And now they rank 130th in returning production. Quarterback EJ Warner left for Rice, all-conference tackle Victor Stoffel left for Cal. Drayton desperately brought in 13 transfers (20 including JUCOs) to try to fix a defense that ranked 130th in defensive SP+, but the passing game was the only semi-appealing thing about this team, and Warner's departure hurts. Whoever wins the QB job -- either Rutgers transfer Evan Simon, junior Forrest Brock or redshirt freshman Tyler Douglas -- will have last year's leading receivers, Dante Wright and Zae Baines, to target, but a poor run game gets another reset, and transfers are minimal, at least compared to the defense.

Everything that Temple had methodically built vanished in 2020 and has yet to reappear. And dealing with a total reset in Drayton's third year is in no way optimal.

My favorite player: DE Diwun Black. The Florida transfer was an immediate hit in Philadelphia, recording 3.5 sacks with a 14.8% pressure rate (and an average pressure time of 2.31 seconds) that suggests he could end up with a lot more sacks this year. If he has the pass rushing opportunities, at least.