✔️ Top 2004 NFL Rookie Leader Stat Projections

[Wagerallsports]

Projecting top five NFL rookie leaders by stat categories​

ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL

It has been nearly a month since the 2024 NFL draft, and we now have a much better grasp of what each team's roster core will look like this season. That means we can start to project expectations for this year's batch of rookies.

First-year players tend to experience a learning curve, but we will see plenty of standouts right out of the gate. Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? How many yards should we expect to see from this year's crop of first-round QBs led by Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye? What are reasonable expectations for running back Jonathon Brooks as he recovers from a torn ACL? And who will pace all rookies in tackles and sacks?

Let's take a look at the top five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of categories for the 2024 season. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role).

 

[Wagerallsports]

Passing yards and touchdowns​

1. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 3,532 yards, 23 TDs (15 starts)
2. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: 3,527 yards, 19 TDs (14 starts)
3. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 3,457 yards, 16 TDs (15 starts)
4. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 3,378 yards, 17 TDs (15 starts)
5. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 3,165 yards, 16 TDs (14 starts)

Barring injury, Williams (the No. 1 overall draft pick), Daniels (second), Maye (third), McCarthy (10th) and Nix (12th) are going to play early and often as rookies, and it wouldn't be a surprise if all five are under center in Week 1.

The history of the position tells the story: From 2011 to 2023, 34 of 41 first-round quarterbacks (83%) took over as the starter prior to Week 10. Twenty (49%) started in Week 1 -- and that list includes all three QBs selected in the 2023 first round (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson). Of the 18 QBs picked in the top three, 13 started in Week 1 and three others took over by Week 5, leaving Jared Goff (Week 11) and Trey Lance (Jimmy Garoppolo's backup) as the exceptions.

There have been 24 quarterbacks who appeared in at least 14 games as a rookie since 2011, and that group averaged 3,433 passing yards and 18.4 touchdown passes as rookies. If we conservatively project 14-15 starts for this year's group (as noted above), the projected output seems to check out.

This is a bit of an unusual class in that the supporting cast/scheme around a few of these QBs provides optimism that they can produce at a higher statistical level than a typical rookie. That group includes Williams and McCarthy, who will benefit from excellent offensive playmakers around them in Chicago and Minnesota, respectively, as well as Daniels, who gets a boost from Kliff Kingsbury's fast-paced scheme in Washington. Of the 41 QBs drafted in the first round since 2011, 10 reached 3,500 passing yards, and 10 reached 20 TDs through the air as rookies.

Michael Penix Jr. was selected eighth overall by Atlanta, but he won't play much this season if Kirk Cousins -- whom the Falcons signed in free agency -- is healthy.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Receiving yards and touchdowns​

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: 1,121 yards, 6 TDs
2. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: 1,033 yards, 5 TDs
3. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: 814 yards, 5 TDs
4. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills: 810 yards, 5 TDs
5. Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears: 803 yards, 6 TDs

This wide receiver rookie class has a chance to be one of the best ever after seven were selected in the first round, including three in the first nine overall picks -- Harrison (No. 4), Nabers (No. 6) and Odunze (No. 9). Let's look at the production of the 14 wide receivers (excluding 2017 first-rounder John Ross since he played in only three games) who were selected with a top-10 pick since 2011:

WIDE RECEIVER	OVERALL PICK	GAMES	TARGETS	CATCHES	REC. YARDS	REC. TDS
Ja'Marr Chase	5	17	127	81	1455	13
Garrett Wilson	10	17	148	83	1103	4
Amari Cooper	4	16	126	72	1070	6
A.J. Green	4	15	115	65	1057	7
Mike Evans	7	15	118	68	1051	12
Jaylen Waddle	6	16	139	104	1015	6
Sammy Watkins	4	16	127	65	982	6
Julio Jones	6	13	92	54	959	8
DeVonta Smith	10	17	102	64	916	5
Drake London	8	17	117	72	866	4
Justin Blackmon	5	16	131	64	865	5
Tavon Austin	8	13	69	40	418	4
Corey Davis	5	11	64	34	375	0
Mike Williams	7	10	22	11	95	0
Average	N/A	15	107	63	873	5.7
* John Ross (15 snaps across three games) is excluded since he barely saw the field.

It's a small sample, but 11 of the 14 wideouts produced at least 865 yards, with Tavon Austin, Corey Davis and Mike Williams (who all missed at least three games) the only ones to fall short. This provides optimism that Harrison and Nabers can clear 1,000 yards in their rookie seasons. Odunze's forecast isn't quite as optimistic simply because he's in the unique situation of being selected by a team that already has a strong WR duo in Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.

Thomas and Coleman lead a list of 13 additional WRs picked in the first three rounds of April's draft. The outlook for receivers selected after pick No. 20 but prior to the fourth round is solid yet unspectacular.

Since 2011, there are 135 receivers who fit that bill and played at least one snap as a rookie. Of those 135, 22 (16.3%) reached 800 receiving yards and 21 (15.6%) reached seven receiving touchdowns. This is something to keep in mind when considering the upside of Coleman (whose optimistic projection stems from Buffalo's Josh Allen-led offense and wide-open WR depth chart), Thomas, Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette.

Tight end Brock Bowers, who was selected 12th overall, is a notable exception from this list and worth a quick mention. Believe it or not, only six tight ends in NFL history have produced more than 750 receiving yards as a rookie. Two of those instances have come in the past decade (Kyle Pitts and Sam LaPorta), so while it's possible Bowers could follow in LaPorta's footsteps, it's a long shot. That's especially true in a Las Vegas offense with arguably the league's most underwhelming QB room.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Rushing yards and touchdowns​

1. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers: 877 yards, 6 TDs
2. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders: 577 yards, 5 TDs
3. Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: 507 yards, 3 TDs
4. Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams: 471 yards, 3 TDs
5. Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills: 356 yards, 2 TDs

Brooks (46th overall) was the only running back selected during the first two rounds of April's draft. It's possible his career starts slowly (he tore an ACL last season), but it shouldn't take him long to overtake Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard as Carolina's feature back. Among rookie running backs since 2011, Brooks' yardage projection would rank 29th and his TD total would tie for 30th.

Daniels is looking to become only the fifth quarterback in NFL history to rush for 575 yards as a rookie. That might suggest this projection is too high, but his elite rushing ability -- 488 career rushes for 3,990 yards and 34 TDs -- and strong likelihood of starting right out of the gate in Week 1 have him well positioned to get to the mark. In fact, Robert Griffin III's rookie QB record of 815 yards is certainly in jeopardy. Cam Newton (706), Lamar Jackson (695) and Josh Allen (631) are the others who reached 600.

One quick fantasy note here: Since 2011, nine QBs have finished 13th or better in fantasy points as a rookie, and that group averaged 411.2 rushing yards and 6.0 rushing TDs. C.J. Stroud is one of the nine, and he accomplished it with the fewest rushing yards (167) and TDs (three) of the group, which adds to the impressiveness of his feat. Daniels' rushing prowess very much supplies him with QB1 upside in Year 1.

Benson, a third-round pick, will open his career as the primary backup behind oft-injured James Conner in Arizona, whereas Corum and Davis will push Kyren Williams and James Cook, respectively, for change-of-pace touches right out of the gate. Since 2011, only six running backs who weren't selected in the first two rounds went on to rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Touchdowns from scrimmage​

1. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers: 8 TDs
2. Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: 6 TDs
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears: 6 TDs
4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: 6 TDs
5. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: 5 TDs

Touchdowns by rookies had been on the decline (133 in 2021 and 139 in 2022) but saw a big boost to 173 last season. That marks the second most in a single season by rookies over the past decade.

Twenty-four rookies reached 10 TDs during that span, with Jahmyr Gibbs (11) and De'Von Achane (11) leading the class in 2023. Of the 24 double-digit TD scorers, 16 were running backs, so it should be no surprise that Brooks leads this list even in a down year for rookie RBs.

The touchdown totals from wide receivers might seem low, but if we look at all rookie WRs over the past decade, only 16 have reached eight receiving TDs in their first season. Two did it in 2023 (Jordan Addison and Jayden Reed both with 10), but only one wide receiver reached eight TDs in each of the prior three seasons. Worthy is the only new name on this list, and he gets a boost from the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense.

Bowers projects for four TDs, which would tie him for eighth among tight ends over the past decade. Only three rookie tight ends reached seven during the span: Hunter Henry (eight), Pat Freiermuth (seven) and Sam LaPorta (10).

 

[Wagerallsports]

Tackles​

1. Javon Bullard, S, Green Bay Packers: 71 tackles
2. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Packers: 68 tackles
3. Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants: 67 tackles
4. Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions: 58 tackles
5. Max Melton, CB, Arizona Cardinals: 50 tackles

Rookies totaled 2,899 tackles last season (the fewest since 2015), which was a steep fall from a decade-high 3,875 tackles in 2022. First-year players are averaging 3,243 tackles in total per season during the past decade.

Shaquille Leonard's 163 tackles in 2018 are the most by a rookie over the past decade, though he is one of only four rookies (all picked in the first two rounds of the draft) to reach 125 during the span. In fact, zero rookies reached 100 tackles last season, and only undrafted Ivan Pace Jr. (97) reached 90. Considering the first defender wasn't selected until No. 15 in April's draft (Laiatu Latu), it's possible the output will be even worse in 2024.

A pair of Green Bay second-rounders lead the list this season. Bullard is a good bet for an every-down role opposite Xavier McKinney and will look to follow in the footsteps of Jalen Pitre, who produced 147 tackles (second most among all rookies over the past decade) as a safety in 2022. An off-ball linebacker will generally lead the rookie class in tackles, but none was selected prior to Cooper this season. He projects to work alongside Quay Walker in Jeff Hafley's new-look defensive scheme.

Nubin and Cole Bishop (Bills) were the only other safeties selected in the first two rounds, and the former makes this list as he has an easier path to an every-down role. Seven of the first 43 draft picks were corners and two show up on this list. Arnold (first round) has a good shot to start opposite Carlton Davis III for an improved Detroit defense, whereas Melton (second round) has minimal competition to start opposite Sean Murphy-Bunting in Arizona.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Interceptions​

1. Javon Bullard, S, Green Bay Packers: 1.7 INTs
2. Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants: 1.5 INTs
3. Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions: 1.3 INTs
4. Max Melton, CB, Arizona Cardinals: 1.3 INTs
5. Kamari Lassiter, CB, Houston Texans: 1.0 INTs

These always seem super low, but that's not by accident. Rookies have combined on average for 41.1 interceptions per season over the past decade. That includes a total of 34 INTs by first-year players in 2023, which was the second-lowest mark since 2014. In fact, rookies have combined for fewer than 40 INTs in four of the past five seasons. First-round rookies combined for only five INTs last season -- their lowest total in over a decade.

Thirteen rookies have reached four interceptions over the past decade, with Marcus Peters (eight) and Riq Woolen (six) the only players above five. In 2023, Tyrique Stevenson led all rookies with four INTs, and Brian Branch was the only other first-year player with more than two.

We already discussed the first four players on this list, leaving Lassiter as the lone newcomer. The second-round pick is joining a Houston secondary loaded with talent, but he'll immediately compete to start opposite Derek Stingley Jr.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Sacks​

1. Laiatu Latu, Edge, Indianapolis Colts: 5.4 sacks
2. Darius Robinson, Edge, Arizona Cardinals: 5.2 sacks
3. Jared Verse, Edge, Los Angeles Rams: 4.9 sacks
4. Bralen Trice, Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 4.5 sacks
5. Dallas Turner, Edge, Minnesota Vikings: 4.2 sacks

Rookies are averaging 108.2 sacks per season over the past decade. The high (130 in 2019) and low (71.5 in 2020) during the span have both been hit in recent years, and first-year players totaled 118.5 sacks in 2023.

Kobie Turner led with 9.0 sacks last season, the seventh most by a rookie over the past decade, but teammate Byron Young (8.0), YaYa Diaby (7.5), Will Anderson Jr. (7.0) and Jalen Carter (6.0) were the only others to clear 4.5.

Micah Parsons' 13.0 sacks in 2021 was the most by a rookie over the past decade, and just four other freshmen have reached double digits (four of the five were first-rounders). That's notable after five edge rushers were selected in the first round this year and explains why none reach 6.0 here. In fact, the sack projections for every player listed above would actually rank top 30 among first-round picks over the past decade.

Latu (the first defender selected in April's draft) will immediately join the edge rotation in Indianapolis and could start opposite Kwity Paye. Robinson is in a similar position, as he'll compete to work opposite Zaven Collins in Arizona. Verse is looking to unseat Michael Hoecht opposite Young (both incumbents played 85% of the snaps or more last season). Trice was a third-round pick, but he's joining arguably the league's shakiest edge room, which provides a path to serious playing time. And while Dallas Turner generated a ton of pre-draft hype, he'll be fishing for rotational snaps behind a terrific Jonathan Greenard-Andrew Van Ginkel duo in Minnesota.