BETMGM
Let’s get right to the plays, where we’re bypassing the game’s No. 1 with hands over our eyes and teeth fully clenched.
Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Picks
Conservative: Tom Kim (+5000)
Sure, this pick could’ve been way more conservative, but I just didn’t have it in me to select the proverbial elephant in the room at a sub-3/1 price. Scottie Scheffler (+275) is the ultimate cautious play here.
As you’ve probably heard, the world No. 1 has won four of his last six starts – and it coulda/woulda been five, if not for an untimely arrest prior to the second round of last week’s PGA Championship, which seemed to affect him more the day afterward. He’s also finished top-three in each of the last two editions of this event.
If you’d rather just splash the pot with a Scheffler outright selection and take your chances, I can’t argue anything but the short number. If you’d like to take your chances on fading him in this market, though – and we realize that’s a big if – there are reasons to disregard those just behind him, as well. From Collin Morikawa (+1200) to Max Homa (+2000) to Jordan Spieth (+2200), I can find sense in skipping past all of the non-Scheffler biggest names.
That brings me to Kim, who admittedly hasn’t been playing his best golf lately, though it’s hardly been terrible. His ball-striking stats were solid at Valhalla, and while he’s never played Colonial in competition, it should suit the Dallas resident, who excels on shorter tracks.
I’ve heard some whispers that he might be at the very front end of playing 16 consecutive weeks, which is about as much golf as I’ve ever heard for a top-level player.
The one thing that can change such a schedule is winning, and that could be motivation enough to step on the gas pedal early in this potential stretch. For a player who was half this price to start the year in a more top-heavy field at a worse course for him in Kapalua, this number feels like a bargain.
Aggressive: Aaron Rai (+6600)
Driving accuracy and strong iron play will go a long way at Colonial and those are the strengths of Rai’s game. I’m also not mad about a recent stretch that shows two top-10s in his last five starts – and even less dissuaded that each of those came in the state of Texas, a T-7 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and T-4 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
That follows a T-12 at Colonial last year, which suggests the Englishman has taken a liking to the Lone Star State. Two gloves and iron covers might look unorthodox – though if you hear the story about the latter, you’ll understand why his heart is in the right place – but he’s showing he owns plenty of game. I don’t think it’ll be much longer before he’s a PGA Tour winner, and when it happens, it’s more likely to happen on a tighter, shorter track such as this.
Charles Schwab Challenge Top 5 Picks
Conservative: Billy Horschel (+750)
I’ve written pretty frequently lately about momentum players – the types who need to build up to their best results, as opposed to those who can break out anytime. Horschel has proven to be a momentum player of the highest degree, but that doesn’t mean his strong play simply culminates in victory and disappears. He had three top-12 finishes in five starts before winning the Corales Puntacana Championship last month, and this past week he rode a red-hot final round to a share of eighth place.
Colonial hasn’t been the site of too many stellar performances for him over the years, with a best finish of T-19. He’s made the cut in five of six starts, but this is predominantly a momentum play, trying to catch him while he’s still on that uptick.
Aggressive: Justin Lower (+2200)
I’m a big fan of the “bet on yourself” philosophy in life, essentially building specific decision-making around your own self-confidence. I’m a big fan of it in golf betting, too.
I’ve written about this concept many times, but I’ve always believed that backing a player who doesn’t pay off shouldn’t mean we abandon ship. Instead, we should bet on our own research and instincts and hope that it was just the timing that didn’t pay off.
Two weeks ago, Lower was my favorite play at the alternate-field Myrtle Beach Classic, fresh off a quartet of top-30 results. He missed the cut that week at a brand new venue, but I’m still bullish, so I’ll have another investment in him this week.
Charles Schwab Challenge Top 10 Picks
Conservative: Tom Hoge (+375)
I’ll never say never, but even with three months remaining in this season, it doesn’t feel like Scheffler is going to relinquish, well, a lot of his statistical leads, but in particular his No. 1 ranking in SG: Approach. This means Hoge will have to settle for being the second-best iron player on the PGA Tour, ranking just ahead of fellow flushers Corey Conners, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele so far.
On a course where strong iron play is vitally important, I like Hoge to reverse his fortune at an event where he hasn’t finished inside the top-40 in a half-dozen years.
Aggressive: Mark Hubbard (+550)
Poor Hubbard. He entered last week’s PGA Championship without a top-50 result in three previous major starts, but climbed the leaderboard during the first two days and was just three strokes off the lead entering the weekend.
That’s when he was grouped with Scheffler – and hordes of gallery members wearing orange jumpsuits and t-shirts with Scottie’s mugshot on the front. He shot 73 that day, earning another pairing with the No. 1 player on Sunday, too, where he posted a number four shots better to finish T-26.
It’s difficult enough to contend in a major for the first time, but contending alongside a dominant player after he’s been released from jail is a tough draw. Anyway, I like him to keep the good stuff going this week on a course where he posted a first career top-10 last year.
Charles Schwab Challenge Top 20 Picks
Conservative: Maverick McNealy (+200)
In 2021 and ’22, I started likening McNealy to a modern-day Charles Howell III – and that’s a compliment without any backhanded notions. Though he only won three times during a lengthy PGA Tour career before leaving for LIV Golf, Howell was a human ATM, his regularly low ceiling offset by a massive floor.
McNealy was mirroring those results for a couple of years, then dealt with injuries last season. His game is back now, though, and so is that floor, having made the cut in 10 straight individual starts, including three top-20s.
Aggressive: C.T. Pan (+500)
Maybe I’m placing too much stock in his 2019 victory on another short track in Harbour Town, or maybe I’m looking too hard at his T-3 finish at Colonial a month later. The truth is, Pan has long been an all-or-nothing type of guy, which should admittedly make us a bit skittish for top-20s, as he’s far from a safe play. If you want to buy the ceiling, if anything, might as well chase a big top-five/10 number, too.
Charles Schwab Challenge First-Round Leader Picks
Conservative: Brian Harman (+4500)
While he’ll never use a lack of power as an excuse for some results, Harman has to be licking his chops for this one, after spending much of the past few weeks hitting hybrids into par-4s.
He owns six top-25s in 11 career starts at Colonial, but more importantly for this specific wager, he’s posted sub-70 opening-round scores on five occasions, including a 65 back in 2020.
Aggressive: Ryan Fox (+8000)
Good things have happened for Fox on some Thursdays this year, including going eagle-eagle on holes 16-17 at TPC Sawgrass and getting onto the leaderboard at Augusta National.
Much like recent plays I’ve made on Taylor Pendrith (a winner in Fort Worth) and Robert MacIntyre (runner-up in Myrtle Beach entering the final round), this falls under the “best player available” category, as a guy who’s simply better than his pricing suggests. I don’t mind him for top-10/20 finishing position bets, either.
