Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 53,049
Shohei Ohtani becomes fastest to 40/40 -- what the milestone means
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALIf we didn't already know that Shohei Ohtani was the most unique player in baseball history, the 2024 season has proved that beyond all doubt. And he didn't have to throw a pitch to do it.
Ohtani became the sixth member of the 40/40 club Friday, hammering both his 40th dinger and swiping his 40th bag in the same game at Dodger Stadium against the Rays. That dry description hardly does justice to the moment. Ohtani beat the Tampa Bay Rays with a first-pitch, game-ending grand slam, his 40th homer, after stealing his 40th base earlier in the game. It was the first game-ending blast of his nonpareil career.
That Ohtani made yet more baseball history with so much flair is hardly a surprise. What's the bigger surprise is how quickly Ohtani got there -- 126 games, 21 faster than any of the existing quintet already in the club.
Games needed to reach 40/40 club
| Games | Player | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2024 |
| 147 | Alfonso Soriano | Washington Nationals | 2006 |
| 151 | Jose Canseco | Oakland Athletics | 1988 |
| 152 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | 2023 |
| 153 | Alex Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | 1998 |
| 158 | Barry Bonds | San Francisco Giants | 1996 |
By the time Canseco became the first 40/40 player in 1988, things had changed; it was a much-lauded feat in the moment. Even with the group now growing to six, the feat remains remarkable and rare. It's not just because of the numbers but what they represent: Power and speed. We just haven't seen all that many players who combined both at an elite level and those who did (Mays, Mantle, both Bonds, A-Rod, etc.) rank among the game's all-time greats.
This year, Ohtani is on pace for 50 homers and 50 steals, which would be an outrageous feat never before done -- and really never approached. Acuna, who rolled up 41 homers and 73 steals last season, is the only player to top 50 in either category while topping 40 in one of them. (And remember, Ohtani also finished fourth in AL Cy Young balloting just two seasons ago and is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Not a bad recovery season.)
Perhaps the most important factor in Ohtani's 50-50 quest possibly coming to fruition is the Dodgers' division lead. Thanks to the torrid second halves of the Padres and Diamondbacks, the Dodgers' advantage in the NL West is solid but is far from insurmountable. The closer San Diego and/or Arizona is able to stick to L.A., the less incentive there will be to rest Ohtani down the stretch. And if that's the case, there is little to suggest that either his homer or steal pace will ebb anytime soon.
If Ohtani does get to 50/50, or beyond, he'll edge close on Acuna's top spot on an all-time leaderboard, a place Acuna has occupied for around a year. This stat, the Power-Speed Number (PSN), is another Bill James invention and it's simply the harmonic mean of a player's homer and steal total, whether it's over a season or a career.
Single-season power speed number
| PSN | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 52.51 | 2023 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 43.91 | 1998 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 43.36 | 2006 |
| Eric Davis | 42.53 | 1987 |
| Rickey Henderson | 42.37 | 1986 |
| Jose Canseco | 40.98 | 1988 |
| Barry Bonds | 40.98 | 1996 |
| Bobby Bonds | 40.90 | 1973 |
| Barry Bonds | 40.38 | 1990 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 39.98 | 2002 |
| Carlos Beltrán | 39.90 | 2004 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 39.49 | 2002 |
| Matt Kemp | 39.49 | 2011 |
| Larry Walker | 39.44 | 1997 |
| Rickey Henderson | 39.14 | 1990 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 39.00 | 2024 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 38.90 | 2019 |
| Bobby Bonds | 38.44 | 1977 |
| Barry Bonds | 38.44 | 1997 |
| Howard Johnson | 38.34 | 1989 |
| Ken Williams | 37.97 | 1922 |
| Willie Mays | 37.89 | 1956 |
| Joe Morgan | 37.46 | 1973 |
| Darryl Strawberry | 37.44 | 1987 |
| Bobby Bonds | 37.40 | 1969 |
Andre Dawson, 1979: 25 homers, 35 steals
Andre Dawson, 1987: 49 homers, 11 steals
In which of these seasons did The Hawk display a better combination of power and speed? He posted a total of 60 steals and homers in both campaigns, which averages out to 30 of each. Most would say it was 1979, before his knees became such a problem, and sure enough, his power-speed number in 1979 was 29.17, while homer-heavy 1987 was 17.97. That's how harmonic mean works.
If he were to be the first to break that barrier, it would be hard to argue against anyone declaring that his debut season with the Dodgers has featured the best single-season power-speed combo in baseball history. If he falls short, you could still make that claim simply because Acuna hit "only" 41 homers, his PSN was dominated by his 73 stolen bases.
What about we consider league context, though? We're not going to reach a definitive answer on that question, but we can widen the scope of our leaderboard if we make adjustments based on league context (we're setting aside the Negro Leagues for the moment, thus leaving out contenders for best-ever power-speed players like Oscar Charleston). The rate of homers per game is more than double than it was in just about every season before 1950. The rate of steals is up by nearly a third over just five years ago, but it's still substantially less than it was during the deadball era.
I refigured every player's homer and steal totals to match the average rates of the division era. Because this season is higher than the historical norm in both categories (strangely, given the overall dip in offensive production), it takes a little bit of steam out of 2024 players. With that in mind, here is a revised all-time top 15:
All-time Power Speed leaderboard
| PSN | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Willie Mays | 54.97 | 1955 |
| Ben Chapman | 53.99 | 1931 |
| Willie Mays | 52.51 | 1956 |
| Ken Williams | 52.36 | 1922 |
| Willie Mays | 50.88 | 1957 |
| Bobby Bonds | 49.26 | 1973 |
| Hank Aaron | 48.99 | 1963 |
| George Sisler | 48.57 | 1920 |
| Ty Cobb | 48.25 | 1909 |
| Bobby Bonds | 46.08 | 1969 |
| Joe Morgan | 45.84 | 1976 |
| Joe Morgan | 44.90 | 1973 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 44.62 | 2024 |
| Cesar Cedeno | 44.22 | 1974 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 43.64 | 2006 |
Some of this list is skewed by players who put up out-of-proportion seasons in extreme league contexts. Ken Williams hit an AL-leading 39 homers in 1922 (yes, even more than Babe Ruth, who was injured a lot that year). That was more homers than Cleveland hit as a team (32), while three other AL clubs finished with a team total of 45 homers. Also, Williams' 1922 season underscores the fact that we really should adjust for ballpark as well (another day, perhaps) -- he hit 32 of his 39 dingers at Sportsman's Park, a homer haven for lefty hitters.
This list makes sense, though, in that it anoints Mays as the premier power-speed player in MLB history, a notion few would dispute. Mays' 1955 season that landed No. 1 here, adjusted to division-era levels for steals and homers, ended up with revised figures of 54 homers and 56 steals -- the only 50-50 season after our statistical tricks.
This recalls an anecdote about Mays via Reggie Jackson, as told to ESPN's Tim Kurkijan a few years back.
"After I retired, I took Willie to the eye doctor several times. He had early glaucoma. One day, we're driving and I asked him about [Jose] Canseco going 40/40 [homers and stolen bases in one season]. I said to Willie, 'What do you think of those guys going 40/40? You did 30/30 a couple of times.' Willie said, 'Oh, hell, 40/40, that's nothing. I could have done 50/50 any time. I wanted to steal my bases when it mattered, for the team.'"
None of this is meant to demean Ohtani's milestone performance. It's quite the opposite: What Ohtani has done is more than surpass arbitrary round numbers in two counting-stat categories. As a hitter and all-around offensive player, he has placed himself in a group with some of the best that baseball has ever seen.
And no one else in that group could touch another list, one that considers hitting and pitching, in the same season. Thinking of the Power-Speed Number methodology, I decided to calculate a Pitching-Hitting Number by figuring the harmonic mean of each player's hitting WAR and pitching WAR for any season in which a player did both.
You already know who's going to dominate this list.
Hitting-Pitching Number
| HPN | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.72 | 2023 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.43 | 2021 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.36 | 2022 |
| Wes Ferrell | 3.74 | 1935 |
| Babe Ruth | 3.18 | 1917 |
| Babe Ruth | 3.09 | 1918 |
| Fergie Jenkins | 2.85 | 1971 |
| George Uhle | 2.85 | 1923 |
| Earl Wilson | 2.76 | 1966 |
| Wes Ferrell | 2.75 | 1931 |
| Dizzy Trout | 2.74 | 1944 |
| Babe Ruth | 2.72 | 1916 |
| Walter Johnson | 2.63 | 1925 |
| Bucky Walters | 2.61 | 1939 |
| Warren Spahn | 2.58 | 1958 |
It's important that we step back and appreciate the incredible talent that these lists make explicit. A player -- Ohtani -- who might become the first 50/50 player and all-time champ in Power-Speed Number, is at the same time the most successful hitter-pitcher combo among anyone who played in one of the extant leagues.
We've never seen anything like this before and we might well never see it again, even from Ohtani. One of the biggest factors in Ohtani's breakout on the basepaths is the fact that he isn't pitching and doesn't have to preserve his lower body to the degree that he will next year, when he returns to mound action. And the Dodgers almost certainly won't ask him to run as much knowing they want him to take a turn in the rotation every five or six days.
Then there is Ohtani's age, which hit 30 on July 5. He's nowhere near a decline phase but even if he eventually gives up pitching, it'll be down the line when his speed and overall durability are likely to be less than right now. The confluence of factors that made this 40/40 season (and maybe 50/50) possible is unlikely to ever happen again.
Right now, that hardly seems to matter. Who cares if Ohtani can repeat this specific performance? Do we really need an encore? That Ohtani did it once is surreal enough. Once again, the most unique player in baseball history has expanded our notion of what is possible on the diamond.
