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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Not Enough Points at Penn State Tonight
We improved to 40-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball selection on Wednesday. We have a play in a Big Ten matchup on Thursday in Wisconsin vs. Penn State on FS1.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Thursday, January 22nd – 7:00pm ET
As has become customary on Thursdays in recent years, there is a lack of power conference matchups tonight. However, we do see value in the only such game on the card in the Big Ten, where we are expecting a relatively slow-paced game. With the total set at nearly 160, we are backing the Under when Wisconsin visits Penn State on FS1.
Deceptive Offensive Stats for Lions
Some would consider the Nittany Lions to be a pleasant surprise at 9-9 after entering the year as one of the lowest ranked major-conference teams in the country. However, they went 9-2 vs. one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the nation rated 347th in SOS, and they are a winless 0-7 in the Big Ten.
Most importantly regarding our wager here, their offense has shown its true colors in conference play. You see, their overall numbers show them a commendable 79th in offensive efficiency at 116.2 (national average 110.0) and 82nd in eFG% at 53.8% (average 51.3%). However, their offensive success out of conference was Fool’s Gold, as they rank 14th in efficiency (105.4) and 13th in eFG% (50.1%) during league play.
Penn State is averaging just 71.3 points per game inside the conference while topping 73 points only once in seven league games. They may have trouble reaching 70 here considering an expected severe lack of second chances, as the Lions rank 275th in offensive rebounding percentage while Wisconsin is an elite ninth in defensive rebounding. That is not to mention probably wanting to slow the pace.
Wiscy May Not Get Desired Tempo
If we go ahead and give Penn State 70 points, Wisconsin will need to score 90+ for this game to go Over this bloated total. Yes, that is not impossible given the Badgers average 83.5 points per game and the Nittany Lions are 203rd nationally and 18th inside the conference in defensive efficiency. However, one area that we expect Penn State to win tonight is the Tempo War.
You see, Wisconsin likes to push the pace while a bit while ranking 51st in Tempo Rating while the Nittany Lions prefer a snail’s pace at 209th. Moreover, Penn State will certainly want to slow this game down while attempting to stay close and give themselves a chance to pull an upset.
And we think that they will be successful in that regard because a weakness in the Badgers’ defense is not applying much pressure, ranking 291st nationally and 16th inside the conference in turnover percentage forced.
We think that Penn State’s success in setting a slow pace will limit Wisconsin’s output here to closer to 80 points than 90 points, maybe even the high 70s. This has us betting on the Under at this big number.
THE PICK
Under 159 -108 at Heritage
We improved to 40-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball selection on Wednesday. We have a play in a Big Ten matchup on Thursday in Wisconsin vs. Penn State on FS1.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Thursday, January 22nd – 7:00pm ET
As has become customary on Thursdays in recent years, there is a lack of power conference matchups tonight. However, we do see value in the only such game on the card in the Big Ten, where we are expecting a relatively slow-paced game. With the total set at nearly 160, we are backing the Under when Wisconsin visits Penn State on FS1.
Deceptive Offensive Stats for Lions
Some would consider the Nittany Lions to be a pleasant surprise at 9-9 after entering the year as one of the lowest ranked major-conference teams in the country. However, they went 9-2 vs. one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the nation rated 347th in SOS, and they are a winless 0-7 in the Big Ten.
Most importantly regarding our wager here, their offense has shown its true colors in conference play. You see, their overall numbers show them a commendable 79th in offensive efficiency at 116.2 (national average 110.0) and 82nd in eFG% at 53.8% (average 51.3%). However, their offensive success out of conference was Fool’s Gold, as they rank 14th in efficiency (105.4) and 13th in eFG% (50.1%) during league play.
Penn State is averaging just 71.3 points per game inside the conference while topping 73 points only once in seven league games. They may have trouble reaching 70 here considering an expected severe lack of second chances, as the Lions rank 275th in offensive rebounding percentage while Wisconsin is an elite ninth in defensive rebounding. That is not to mention probably wanting to slow the pace.
Wiscy May Not Get Desired Tempo
If we go ahead and give Penn State 70 points, Wisconsin will need to score 90+ for this game to go Over this bloated total. Yes, that is not impossible given the Badgers average 83.5 points per game and the Nittany Lions are 203rd nationally and 18th inside the conference in defensive efficiency. However, one area that we expect Penn State to win tonight is the Tempo War.
You see, Wisconsin likes to push the pace while a bit while ranking 51st in Tempo Rating while the Nittany Lions prefer a snail’s pace at 209th. Moreover, Penn State will certainly want to slow this game down while attempting to stay close and give themselves a chance to pull an upset.
And we think that they will be successful in that regard because a weakness in the Badgers’ defense is not applying much pressure, ranking 291st nationally and 16th inside the conference in turnover percentage forced.
We think that Penn State’s success in setting a slow pace will limit Wisconsin’s output here to closer to 80 points than 90 points, maybe even the high 70s. This has us betting on the Under at this big number.
THE PICK
Under 159 -108 at Heritage
