LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 12,570
NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Patriots to Shoot Down Flyers in Fairfax
We are 44-35-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after an easy NCAA Basketball winner Tuesday. We now return with a selection in the Atlantic 10 Conference for Wednesday with Dayton visiting George Mason on CBS Sports Network.
Dayton Flyers vs. George Mason Patriots
Wednesday, February 18th – 7:00pm ET
While it may not be the most glamorous game on the Wednesday card, we do see value in a nationally televised Atlantic 10 matchup on Wednesday night. We are backing George Mason as scant home chalk hosting Dayton in Fairfax on CBSSN.
Size Matters
George Mason comes in with a nice 21-5 record overall, and a win here could go a long way toward sealing up the 3-seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. That is because the Patriots come in third in the conference at 9-4 while Dayton is part of a 3-way tie for fourth at 7-5. Mason will probably not be in the best mood either after back-to-back road losses, so we are expecting a bounce-back effort returning home where they are a stellar 15-1!
Neither of these teams shoot 3-pointers very well, so we think this contest will be decided by which squad does the most damage closer to the basket, and we give the Patriots the decided edge there. They have a noticeable size advantage, ranking 82nd in the country in average height compared to a 187th-ranking for the Flyers, and they have used that height to their advantage.
Mason ranks an above-average 64th nationally in 2-point shooting at 54.9% (national average 51.7%), and they are third in the conference in that category during league play at 55.0%. They are facing a Dayton defense ranked 193rd nationally in eFG% allowed while allowing an above-average 2-point success rate of 52.3% inside the A10.
Terrible Shooting in Conference
Dayton enters at 16-9 overall and they are on a 2-5 skid over their last seven games since beginning conference play 5-0, dropping them to 92nd overall on Kenpom after being in the Top 50 early in the year. More critically regarding this game, they have not shot the ball well since the start of conference play and we do not see that changing here in what has been a difficult environment for visiting teams.
The Flyers are exactly at the national average with an eFG% of 51.4% overall and they are even an above average 52.8% in 2-point shooting. However, it has been a different story during Atlantic 10 play, where the eFG% has plummeted to 49.1%, due in no small part to shooting an atrocious 48.8% from 2-point range, ranking 12th in that category in a 14-team conference.
Meanwhile, the George Mason defense is third in conference play in eFG% allowed at 49.5%.
Frankly, we think this line is light considering the Patriots have the better record, have been great at home and should dominate in inside scoring. Bet on George Mason as tiny home favorites.
THE PICK
George Mason -1.5 -114 at Bookmaker
We are 44-35-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after an easy NCAA Basketball winner Tuesday. We now return with a selection in the Atlantic 10 Conference for Wednesday with Dayton visiting George Mason on CBS Sports Network.
Dayton Flyers vs. George Mason Patriots
Wednesday, February 18th – 7:00pm ET
While it may not be the most glamorous game on the Wednesday card, we do see value in a nationally televised Atlantic 10 matchup on Wednesday night. We are backing George Mason as scant home chalk hosting Dayton in Fairfax on CBSSN.
Size Matters
George Mason comes in with a nice 21-5 record overall, and a win here could go a long way toward sealing up the 3-seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. That is because the Patriots come in third in the conference at 9-4 while Dayton is part of a 3-way tie for fourth at 7-5. Mason will probably not be in the best mood either after back-to-back road losses, so we are expecting a bounce-back effort returning home where they are a stellar 15-1!
Neither of these teams shoot 3-pointers very well, so we think this contest will be decided by which squad does the most damage closer to the basket, and we give the Patriots the decided edge there. They have a noticeable size advantage, ranking 82nd in the country in average height compared to a 187th-ranking for the Flyers, and they have used that height to their advantage.
Mason ranks an above-average 64th nationally in 2-point shooting at 54.9% (national average 51.7%), and they are third in the conference in that category during league play at 55.0%. They are facing a Dayton defense ranked 193rd nationally in eFG% allowed while allowing an above-average 2-point success rate of 52.3% inside the A10.
Terrible Shooting in Conference
Dayton enters at 16-9 overall and they are on a 2-5 skid over their last seven games since beginning conference play 5-0, dropping them to 92nd overall on Kenpom after being in the Top 50 early in the year. More critically regarding this game, they have not shot the ball well since the start of conference play and we do not see that changing here in what has been a difficult environment for visiting teams.
The Flyers are exactly at the national average with an eFG% of 51.4% overall and they are even an above average 52.8% in 2-point shooting. However, it has been a different story during Atlantic 10 play, where the eFG% has plummeted to 49.1%, due in no small part to shooting an atrocious 48.8% from 2-point range, ranking 12th in that category in a 14-team conference.
Meanwhile, the George Mason defense is third in conference play in eFG% allowed at 49.5%.
Frankly, we think this line is light considering the Patriots have the better record, have been great at home and should dominate in inside scoring. Bet on George Mason as tiny home favorites.
THE PICK
George Mason -1.5 -114 at Bookmaker
