Racing Season Kicks off - DAYTONA 500 Weekend

[BigJay]

Most here know I really enjoy auto racing and have had one heck of a run the past three years.

The Super Bowl of racing kicks off the 2026 NASCAR season.

A lot of season-long scoring changes, which will hopefully lead to a more deserving champ. Fans cried for this after Larson (winless over the final 25 races) won the championship last season after not leading a lap in the championship race, compared to Denny leading about half the race.


Daytona will have trucks running Friday night, the O’Reilly Auto Parts (formerly Xfinity Series) running Saturday and Cup guys running in the Daytona 500 on Sunday.

Always a crash-fest at this monster speedway, especially late in the race. This Super Speedway (tightly bunched) racing style equates to one mistimed move causing a crash involving half the field or more.


Long stretches of boring waiting for big crashes, which are inevitable - especially late. Expect multiple overtime restarts and a lot of banged and taped up cars.

This style racing also leads to big underdogs hitting. It’s pointless to play favorites. Virtually impossible to predict.

 

[BigJay]

 

[BigJay]

 

[BigJay]

As you can see the favorites are about +1200 (normally a race fave would be -+400 or less on a non-Super Speedway track.

 

[BigJay]

As you can see the favorites are about +1200 (normally a race fave would be -+400 or less on a non-Super Speedway track.

I see value in Stenhouse (past champ) , Austin Dillon (past champ), Hocevar (aggressive deiver) and Bubba, Preece and Cindric (good at this style of racing). One more high-odds guy to toss in would be LaJoie.

If you’re inclined to bet just to have a little action I’d suggest grab three of the mid-to-high priced guys for $10 or $15 each. (Low risk, big reward).

Also it pays to line shop. Always but especially if you’re taking longer shots. Could be the difference of 40/1 and 52/1, for example.

 

[jjgold]

Jay, we expect big things with you this year. I’m gonna be on your ass if you slip up I wonder how the weather temperature wise affects car racing.

 

[BigJay]

wonder how the weather temperature wise affects car racing.

Rain can obviously be a major factor for races to be delayed/postponed.

But this season they’ve created a wet-weather tire similar to what F1 has. They used it last week. I highly doubt they’d use a wet-weather tire at a Super Speedway though.

 

[jjgold]

Rain can obviously be a major factor for races to be delayed/postponed.

But this season they’ve created a wet-weather tire similar to what F1 has. They used it last week. I highly doubt they’d use a wet-weather tire at a Super Speedway though.

Excellent information

 

[bigbill365]

Ill bet your picks put $5-$10 on a couple

 

[Tanko]

The starting lineup is set.

START	DRIVER	CAR		START	DRIVER	CAR
1	Kyle Busch	No. 8 Chevrolet		22	Denny Hamlin	No. 11 Toyota
2	Chase Briscoe	No. 19 Toyota		23	Cole Custer	No. 41 Chevrolet
3	Joey Logano	No. 22 Ford		24	Erik Jones	No. 43 Toyota
4	Chase Elliott	No. 9 Chevrolet		25	Noah Gragson	No. 4 Ford
5	Ryan Blaney	No. 12 Ford		26	Tyler Reddick	No. 45 Toyota
6	Carson Hocevar	No. 77 Chevrolet		27	Bubba Wallace	No. 23 Toyota
7	Austin Dillon	No. 3 Chevrolet		28	Riley Herbst	No. 35 Toyota
8	Kyle Larson	No. 5 Chevrolet		29	Corey Heim*	No. 67 Toyota
9	Brad Keselowski	No. 6 Ford		30	Zane Smith	No. 38 Ford
10	Michael McDowell	No. 71 Chevrolet		31	Jimmie Johnson#	No. 84 Toyota
11	John Hunter Nemechek	No. 42 Toyota		32	Connor Zilisch	No. 88 Chevrolet
12	Christopher Bell	No. 20 Toyota		33	Cody Ware	No. 51 Chevrolet
13	Shane van Gisbergen	No. 97 Chevrolet		34	Ty Dillon	No. 10 Chevrolet
14	Josh Berry	No. 21 Ford		35	AJ Allmendinger	No. 16 Chevrolet
15	Daniel Suárez	No. 7 Chevrolet		36	Austin Cindric	No. 2 Ford
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	No. 47 Chevrolet		37	Ross Chastain	No. 1 Chevrolet
17	Casey Mears*	No. 66 Ford		38	BJ McLeod	No. 78 Chevrolet
18	Todd Gilliland	No. 34 Ford		39	William Byron	No. 24 Chevrolet
19	Ryan Preece	No. 60 Ford		40	Justin Allgaier	No. 40 Chevrolet
20	Ty Gibbs	No. 54 Toyota		41	Chris Buescher	No. 17 Ford
21	Alex Bowman	No. 48 Chevrolet

 

[Tanko]

Odds on Bookmaker....

Ryan Blaney	+926		Erik Jones	+3522
Joey Logano	+1026		Michael McDowell	+4389
Kyle Busch	+1107		Daniel Suarez	+4427
Austin Cindric	+1201		Josh Berry	+4528
William Byron	+1402		John Hunter Nemechek	+5031
Chase Elliott	+1502		Austin Dillon	+5470
Kyle Larson	+1502		Todd Gilliland	+5535
Christopher Bell	+1502		Justin Allgaier	+5535
Denny Hamlin	+1510		Jimmie Johnson	+5535
Chase Briscoe	+1811		Cole Custer	+6037
Brad Keselowski	+2002		Noah Gragson	+6641
Chris Buescher	+2012		AJ Allmendinger	+6641
Tyler Reddick	+2103		TY Dillon	+7016
Bubba Wallace	+2214		Corey Heim	+7044
Alex Bowman	+2415		Shane Van Gisbergen	+8015
Ryan Preece	+2415		Zane Smith	+8050
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	+2717		Riley Herbst	+8050
Carson Hocevar	+3019		Cody Ware	+10062
Ross Chastain	+3120		Casey Mears	+20123
Connor Zilisch	+3522		Anthony Alfredo	+20123
TY Gibbs	+3522

 

[Tanko]

We anxiously await @BigJay to give us some insight.
I know he doesn't like this race a lot due to it being kind of a crap shoot but, I'm hoping he's got some leans.

 

[jjgold]

Joey Logano

 

[Tanko]

William Byron and Denny seem like they have value.
Might be better to go with a top 3 bet on them though.

 

[Tanko]

Sorry Bigjay. Didn't see this thread from yesterday.
Glad a mod folded in the thread I created to yours.

 

[Tanko]

AI's input on the race:

Top Tier: Hamlin, Logano, Blaney
Best Value Among Favorites: Byron
Best Mid‑Tier Value: Keselowski
Best Longshot: McDowell or Hocevar

 

[Tanko]

When asked about selecting a winner at Daytona, AI described it as "VOLATILE & UNPREDICTABLE".

 

[Wagerallsports]

Good race to take a couple longshots

Anything can happen at this track

 

[jjgold]

Jay, you must chew a bundle of tobacco

 

[Tanko]

@BigJay any insight into how to bet the trucks tonight?
If not, i'll have to watch the MSU/Wisc game.