NBA Finals game 1 plays:
Indiana/OKC o230 -112 1.12u to win 1u
OKC Thunder 1H -5 -117 1.17u to win 1u
Chet Holmgren o27.5 P+R+A -110 1.10u to win 1u
Just three plays for me in game 1. I've stated my opinion that this will be a high scoring series and I expect game 1 to play out that way. Both these teams are very efficient offensively and love to push the pace. Yes OKC is also very stingy defensively but I don't think they can completely lock up Indiana in this one because I believe Indiana will still be able to execute their offense and put up points against this vaunted OKC defense. Both games these two teams played this season went over the total and the total was set at 234.5 for one of those games so I don't see why it would change here because like I said both these teams are elite offensively.
My second play is on OKC to at least cover the first half spread because I think they'll be energized by the crowd and really punch Indiana in the mouth early. The full game spread of 9.5 is steep and I can see Indiana staying within that number but to me at least early on OKC will feed off the crowd and take it to Indiana covering the spread of 5 in the process.
My prop play on Chet to go over his P+R+A number is just because I think he's going to be big in this series and it starts with game 1. The Pacers aren't the best rebounding team so I think Chet will approach double digit boards and I think he's going to feast scoring the ball in this series because he can either shoot over Pacer defenders or beat them off the dribble. Lastly, I think this game is competitive in the end because the Pacers never quit coming at you even if you get up on them so I expect Chet to get an increased number of minutes which is always good for props when you're on the over.