Buy Pittsburgh up to +10

[jjgold]

It’s a tremendous play

 

[BMR Genie]

See you again in September Steelers.

 

[flyingillini]

JJ, the current line at Pinnacle is +10 , -114

You are not factoring in "variance" here JJ, this is a complete rookie mistake on your part here. If you calculate the line using the free @KVB variance calculator that he graced the forum with you will see that the true line is +10.5 -103, I am a bit surprised with your lack of laziness regarding your line here. Use the variance calculator and you will see.

 

[edawg]

Pittsburgh sucks!

 

[str]

Paying extra juice is exactly what books want.

 

[jjgold]

Line will not go to 11

 

[BigJay]

See you again in September Steelers.

Yes I don’t see them getting past the Ravens.

The one game I’m most sure of over all the others

 

[jjgold]

This is a due theory play NFL

 

[gauchojake]

I hope nobody thinks this is real gambling advice.

 

[BigJay]

I hope nobody thinks this is real gambling advice.

Imagine if someone risked a chunk based on this thread

 

[Tanko]

I hope nobody thinks this is real gambling advice.

Imagine if someone risked a chunk based on this thread

Wait... What? So bet the Steelers to +10 or not?
I am so confused.

 

[BMR Genie]

JJ, the current line at Pinnacle is +10 , -114

You are not factoring in "variance" here JJ, this is a complete rookie mistake on your part here. If you calculate the line using the free @KVB variance calculator that he graced the forum with you will see that the true line is +10.5 -103, I am a bit surprised with your lack of laziness regarding your line here. Use the variance calculator and you will see.

Now, almost all books have them at +10. Will it still go up b4 kickoff?

 

[str]

Most years you can blindly take the points when these two play.
Can’t automatically say that this year I don’t think.

 

[flyingillini]

Now, almost all books have them at +10. Will it still go up b4 kickoff?

Do you need @KVB teach you on how to apply variance with his free calculator that he has graced the forum with ?

 

[stackingreen]

Was KVB the stats guy that had the informational videos across the street? I recall liking that guy.

 

[flyingillini]

Was KVB the stats guy that had the informational videos across the street? I recall liking that guy.

You have to know your markets. @KVB is the king around here and he teaches us that applying "variance" to an equal fair line it gives you a 71% edge

 

[stackingreen]

he teaches us that applying "variance" to an equal fair line it gives you a 71% edge

I didn't see it in that video, but I like it. This makes sense (do you recall how he got up to 71%?) and I think it's what a friend of mine, who is a smart guy but doesn't understand the math or handicapping in general like I do, would call the random part of the game or the play or small number of plays that determine a game. Notice that you have to first realize if the line is accurate/tight, which is a tall order for most people at large.

 

[flyingillini]

I didn't see it in that video, but I like it. This makes sense (do you recall how he got up to 71%?) and I think it's what a friend of mine, who is a smart guy but doesn't understand the math or handicapping in general like I do, would call the random part of the game or the play or small number of plays that determine a game. Notice that you have to first realize if the line is accurate/tight, which is a tall order for most people at large.

You have to understand variance and you also have to understand “true fair lines “ and what a value play means. I would say 99% of people here don’t understand the concept of applying variance to plays.

 

[stackingreen]

Has anyone on the internet checked Sagarin's picks ATS (I guess vs closing line) with the various categories (he has many, predictor-golden mean-recent-strong recent, etc)? I'm curious how that turns out. Obviously, I'm aware that many of these models are are least very similar to what is used to create an opening line, then the books manage money/sharps.

 

[KVB]

Was KVB the stats guy that had the informational videos across the street? I recall liking that guy.

Stackin my man!

Hapy New Year!

Good to see you around thes parts.

Let's step up this year and make BMR greater than anything on any street! I need to pick up my posting a bit for sure.